I'm a big fan of the NBA and the PBA, but only the UAAP can make me scream my lungs out from the first jump until the final buzzer. There are no safe leads in the collegiate league, which always makes it exciting despite seeing your team trail by 25 at the end of a half. The NCAA has good games to watch as well, but since I come from a UAAP school, I have a preference for the latter than the former.
Now that I've thrown that out there, here are my brief thoughts on the teams that would be competing. No, I will not go into great depth discussing additions and losses, other sports websites have had their crack at that. This is a fan's perspective. Ranking them from 8 to 1.
University of the East Red Warriors
More than half of the team is composed of rookies, as most of the team has played out their eligible years. It will be interesting to see how this team performs this season, but I don't see them winning too many games. Jerry Codinera was one of my favorite players back in the Purefoods-Coney Island days, and despite being only a second-year coach, I think he has the background to inspire his kids to play well enough to show heart.
Projection: 0-14 to 2-12
I think they can have the heart to steal one from either UP (historically bad), Adamson (loss of key players), La Salle (possible lax when facing inferior and non-final 4 teams), and UST (historically careless at times).
University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons
Mike Silungan was so hyped up when he came to the league, you just have to wonder when his promise will be actualized. UP looks to have a reason to cheer about this season, as they have a vastly improving Silungan and key returnees Mark Lopez (heady point guard, good defense, so-so midrange) and Alvin Padilla (streak shooter). They still have Mbah and I think another big guy, so don't be surprised to see some "upsets" this team will be able to pull off.
Projection: 4-10 to 6-8
They have the size to compete against Ateneo, and rivalry games usually raise the intensity of players. They can upset FEU with their current lineup and the Tamaraws' guard-heavy system. This team can run with La Salle, could be as streaky as UST, and look to be better equipped than UE. I think Adamson has an advantage over them just because of the head coach, because I personally think Coach Leo Austria is in a different level.
Adamson University Soaring Falcons
Talk about rebuild; Adamson lost their dynamic one-two punch in Jeric Canada and Lester Alvarez, their big man John Colina, big guy Austin Manyara, and streak shooting Janus Lozada (not related to this writer). They have capable holdovers, with Alex Nuyles leading the charge on the court, and of course, Coach Leo Austria manning the sidelines. Players do win games, but with this particular team, I think the coach is a big factor.
Projection: 5-9
UE looks to be the doormat team this year, and the Falcons are expected to hurdle that team easily. This team looks to have gritty battles with UST, UP, FEU, and DLSU. They don't have the size to compete with ADMU, but they won't go down without a fight. And no, I don't think they have the ability to stop Ray Parks.
Far Eastern University Tamaraws
Glenn Capacio installed a pretty defensive system over at FEU, and Bert Flores is in no way a downgrade. They finally get to field former San Sebastian big man and disgruntled Green Archer Arvie Bringas to team up with his spunky brother. The Terrence Romeo-RR Garcia combo is still a scary pair to match up against. But I think this team is a bunch of Rajon Rondos put together; highly skilled, but are full of themselves. Each want to be that guy who'd win it for their team, which I think would ultimately cause their downfall this season.
Projection: 7-7
I think this is the team that falls off from the Final 4 for reasons of immaturity. They might have a terrible first round where they will be upset by one or two teams below them, and will recover with a big second round push. They have a good team with a good system, which makes the Final 4 tricky; apart from Ateneo and NU, all the other teams look to have a chance at getting the 3 and 4 seed, and dare I say it, even UP will be a team FEU needs to watch out for.
University of Santo Tomas Growling Tigers
This is more about me being a Thomasian than I am being an objective writer. Of course FEU may be able to grab the 3rd or 4th spot in the Final 4, but I'm rooting for UST so shut up. I have good reason to believe that UST can actually pull off a good Cinderella run once again, with a basically intact lineup (Chris Camus being the only notable loss, the other being Eddie Aytona because I can't curse at a particular player anymore), and a couple of key returnees in Clark Bautista (streak shooter, undersized SG) and I think, Eduoardo Daquioag (SF transferred from RTU, played two seasons back, good defender, capable slasher) as a not so prominent returnee but could be a Camus alternative. Jeric Fortuna is playing in his last playing year, so expect an MVP-worthy performance from this kid.
Projection: 7-7
Yes, to be fair to FEU, I'm giving the same projection. UST has the tools to beat any team in the league if they click on all cylinders. The live-and-die by the three mentality has been a staple of UST since Coach Pido took over, and mostly, UST has lived through it. They have more capable shooters now, with the question on their depth addressed by the team's heart. It will be exciting to watch who gets the last 2 spots in the Final 4.
De La Salle University Green Archers
The runner up finisher in the annual Fil-Oil sponsored preseason tournament, La Salle showed that they are stopping at nothing to deny Ateneo their history-making 5-peat. Jeron Teng, brother of UST stalwart Jeric, showed during the tourney that he was not all hype. With the return of LA Revilla, a slew of capable big men, and a new head coach and system (finally), La Salle will be a force to reckon with.
Projection: 9-5
They may be a step above UST and FEU if only because of holdovers that are only getting better (read: Tampus, Van Opstal, Paredes, Andrada, Webb) and gaining key players from the youth team. They have the inside track on the third spot, but again, it wouldn't be surprising if they fell off with the re-tooled UP, the feisty Tigers, and the proud Tamaraws.
Ateneo De Manila University Blue Eagles
This is not a dig at Ateneo, and this is probably wishful thinking, however, with their "Drive for Five", I think teams will perform beyond their potentials when facing Ateneo. On paper and on the court, they are probably the best team in the league, coached by arguably the best coach in the league. They are capable of sweeping this tournament once again, but it will not be an easy task.
Projection: 12-2
With a solid line up validated by a preseason win against the Eagles, La Salle will look to upset Ateneo in the UAAP tournament to further add flavor to the rivalry. And who would not want to see these two compete in the Final 4 as the 2nd and 3rd seed? NU will definitely challenge Ateneo's vaunted lineup, and probaby split the season series.
National University Bulldogs
This is a huge jump for a team that has historically been a doormat team that narrowly missed the Final 4 last year. Ray Parks is the closest thing the Philippines has to LeBron James, and he will be supported by an able cast. I read somewhere that they actually have their own locker room in the MOA Arena, which is different from locker rooms that other teams will be housed in every game. They practice at the MOA Arena as well, so they have a definite home court advantage. Add the fact that majority of the games will be played in the MOA Arena, and it's not crazy to believe that NU will be winning a lot of games this season.
Projection: 12-2
I think they will either be swept by Ateneo, or split the series with them and be upset by another contender. I dare say that they will be the team Ateneo has to beat to claim that Drive for Five. They are the team I can't say outright that will be upset by a lesser team as they have an unstoppable force in Ray Parks who can carry the team on his back when needed. They may not be as deep as Ateneo, but what they lack in depth, Parks can make up for it with sheer dominance. I am all for the hype of this kid after seeing him play last season, and catching glimpses of him during preseason tourneys. Kid has serious game.
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