It's that time of the season again, where the top 16 teams separate themselves from the rest of the pack, and slug it out for the biggest prize in the league: the NBA Championship. I give annual predictions for the playoffs, and I think I have a pretty decent positive percentage. These predictions earn me nothing, and this writing this does me no good. But I just like the feeling of being right and actually having proof that I was.=))
This year, with all the Fantasy Basketball knowledge that I have, I can give a more in-depth analysis on my predictions and not just base it on stats. I have also decided to make predictions per round, if in case I get some predictions wrong. For the time being, the West seedings are still a bit blurry for me, but at least I got to finish The East already.
(1) Chicago Bulls vs (8) Indiana Pacers
Roster:
INDIANA CHICAGO
G Darren Collison PG Derrick Rose
G Paul George SG Ronnie Brewer
F Danny Granger SF Luol Deng
PF Tyler Hansborough PF Carlos Boozer
C Roy Hibbert C Joakim Noah
The Bench
G Tj Ford C Omer Asik
C Jeff Foster SG Keith Bogans
G/F Mike Dunleavy G/F Rasual Butler
G Dahntay Jones F Taj Gibson
C Solomon Jones G/F Kyle Korver
F Josh McRoberts G John Lucas III
G/F James Posey G Jannero Pargo
G A.J. Price F/C Brian Scalabrine
G/F Brandon Rush F/C Kurt Thomas
G Lance Stephenson G C.J. Watson
Key Players: Derrick Rose, Danny Granger
Watch out for: Bench players on both teams
Season series: Chicago won, 3-1
How the roster stacks up:
Derrick Rose is playing an incredible season. Sure the Spurs have played well throughout the season, but the Bulls have been just as good after a slow start. Unlike last year when there were debates flaring out about who the MVP was, this season, Rose has emerged as the heavy favorite, with no one close to even try and take that away from him (except Dwight Howard, of course). They are virtually an unstoppable team, with the 2 spot being the only apparent weakness. And to think they can fill that out with defensive specialist Ronnie Brewer, bench sparkplug C.J. Watson, sharpshooter Kyle Korver, and veteran starter Keith Bogans. Old reliable Jannero Pargo can also fill that spot up. Taj Gibson and Omer Asik won’t do much scoring but will definitely make offensive players work for their shots, and rebounding can be a bitch with those two manning the paint. Brian Scalabrine and Kurt Thomas give veteran presence when they are called.
Indiana, for its part, is one of the few teams in the league that can go 15-deep in their lineup. Though not as talented as 8-deep lineups, they have an infinite number of combinations they can use. Tyler Hansborough and Josh McRoberts have shown great improvements this season. If Roy Hibbert can stay out of foul trouble and regain his dominant form at the start of the season before getting injured, he surely would be a force to reckon with inside. Rookie Paul George has shown flashes of brilliance to complement Danny Granger’s lackluster performances as of late. Mike Dunleavy is an effective scorer when healthy. Dahntay Jones can provide energy, a defensive presence, and a bit of a scoring punch off the bench. And people forget how good T.J. Ford is. Jeff Foster is also an underrated center.
Prediction: Bulls win, 4-0
This is a series that can’t be placed on a storybook type of scenario. No team can play the part of villain because both teams are filled with so much heroes. They all play hard, and they’re all talented from the starting 5 to the 15th player on the bench. However, as good as the Pacers have been all season, they’re not as good as the red-hot Bulls right now. Not to take anything away from the great season that the Pacers have had, but I do think that the first experience of being in the playoffs would prove to be too much for the young guys in the team to be able to perform at the level they’re playing now. This will be a competitive series, and games will be close, but ultimately, the Pacers won’t win in Chicago, and the Bulls have too much momentum on their side by Game 3, that by Game 4, the Pacers will have already been too demoralized to win.
(4) Orlando vs (5) Atlanta
Roster:
ORLANDO ATLANTA
PG Jameer Nelson PG Kirk Hinrich
SG Jason Richardson SG Joe Johnson
SF Hedo Turkgolu SF Marvin Williams
PF Brandon Bass PF Josh Smith
C Dwight Howard C Al Horford
The Bench
F Ryan Anderson G/F Jamaal Crawford
G Chris Duhon C Zaza Pachulia
F/C Earl Clark G/F Damien Wilkins
F Malik Allen G Jeff Teague
G Gilbert Arenas F Josh Powell
G JJ Reddick C Hilton Armstrong
G/F Quentin Richardson C Jason Collins
Key Players: Dwight Howard, Al Horford
Watch out for: Jameer Nelson, Atlanta bigs
Season series: Atlanta won, 3-1
How the roster stacks up:
The early season trade that Orlando pulled off took the league by surprise. It drastically improved the Magic’s roster by getting back arguably their MVP during their Finals run in Hedo Turkgolu, traded a former all-star for another former all-star (Gilbert Arenas for Rashard Lewis), and got a borderline all-star in Jason Richardson. But things didn’t run as smoothly as expected, and they eventually fell to the 4th spot in the East, after being a heavy favorite back in the preseason. They still have a wide arsenal at their command; Ryan Anderson is a stretch 4 in the Hedo mold without the playmaking ability; Jameer Nelson still has something to prove after being criticized for making a comeback in their finals run despite Rafer Alston and Jason Williams capably manning the point at that time; Brandon Bass is a workhorse that takes care of the boards ably; and JJ Reddick has improved his defense drastically to become a major part of the rotation. These facts, added to the fact that Dwight Howard is on their team, make the Magic that much scarier to face in the first round. What could be scarier is if Gilbert Arenas regains his playoff form circa 2006.
Atlanta has had its hot and cold streaks all season. The trade that blindsided starting point guard Mike Bibby and sent him to Washington in exchange for Kirk Hinrich didn’t seem like it would matter, but I think the defense that Kirk Hinrich brings to the team is a valuable asset for the Hawks. And no matter how clutch Joe Johnson is and that he’s the man for Atlanta, the Hawks can only go as far as Al Horford will take them. Josh Smith is an all-around player that will contribute greatly on both ends of the floor. Marvin Williams still has to prove his worth after being picked before Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Jamaal Crawford is a 6th man playing starters’ minutes, and he’s been playing at a starter’s level. Jeff Teague has been handed the reins and will perform when called. Hilton Armstrong, Josh Powell, Zaza Pachulia, and Jason Collins have bodies wide enough to fill up the paint. Damien Wilkins is a solid bench player that knows his role in the rotation.
Prediction: Atlanta in 6
After careful deliberation and research, I have come to the conclusion that Atlanta is a more sound team than Orlando coming in to the playoffs. Despite the big names and all that talent in the Magic bench, they still have not figured out how to optimize their roster. For Atlanta, they just got better with Hinrich-for-Bibby swap. They’ve been a project for several years, and this might be the peak of their team in terms of talent. The team has been solid with few roster shakeups as compared to the Magic and their drastic changes over the course of the season. With the Magic anchored so much on Dwight Howard, they get to win games because he is so dominant down low. However, the Hawks have able bodies in Pachulia, Collins, Armstrong, and Powell who are not afraid to go toe-to-toe with the big fella and take him one on one. With everybody else not leaving to double on Dwight, it makes it that much difficult for him because he has to create his own shots, and not be able to kick out to shooters because no one’s open. I see a shocker in Game 1, with Atlanta taking it, and the rest of the games for the home team to take the wins.
(3) Boston vs (6) New York
Roster:
BOSTON NEW YORK
PG Rajon Rondo PG Chauncey Billups
SG Ray Allen SG Landry Fields
SF Paul Pierce SF Carmelo Anthony
PF Kevin Garnett PF Amare Stoudemire
C Jermaine O’Neal C Ronnie Turiaf
The Bench
F Jeff Green F Jared Jeffries
F/C Glen Davis G Roger Mason Jr
C Nenad Kristic G Toney Douglas
F Troy Murphy G Anthony Carter
G Carlos Arroyo F Derrick Brown
F Sasha Pavlovic F Renaldo Balkman
G/F Von Wafer F Shelden Williams
C Shaquille O’Neal G Shawne Williams
G Delonte West G Bill Walker
Key Players: Rajon Rondo, Amar’e Stoudemire
Watch out for: The vets vs superstar pairing
Season series: Boston won, 3-1
How the roster stacks up:
Boston is in stuck in the middle of rebuild and championship push. While their team was performing well, they decide to ship Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma to find a player that would fill up Paul Pierce’s spot in the team. The future of the Celtics looks like Rajon Rondo and Glen Davis being the anchors, and they needed a third young player preferably at the wing position to build the team around on in the future. They got that in Jeff Green, but in the process, lost the big body and physicality Perkins can give the team inside. Now, it seems that they need to get the O’Neals healthy again, because Troy Murphy and Nenad Kristic aren’t those strong, physical types. Carlos Arroyo seems like a solid pickup, especially with the talented, but fragile Delonte West being their backup point. Sasha Pavlovic offers defense and some perimeter shooting, but they won’t look to him so much to contribute. If Von Wafer finds his form when he was in Houston, he would be a very valuable asset to this team. Much has been said about the Big Three, and their performances would dictate what happens to this team in the postseason, but this run is the team’s transition of handing the team over to Rajon Rondo.
After striking out in the free agent bonanza of 2010, New York “settled” for Amar’e Stoudemire and his unsure knees. Then he breaks out and goes for monstrous performances night in and night out, and literally carry the team on his back. Then he even got his wish when management decided to turn the roster over and grab the disgruntled Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets. Chauncy Billups is a solid bonus in that trade, as well as the veteran locker room presence of Anthony Carter. These two should keep the young superstar tandem of the apostrophed ones’ egos at bay. Wilson Chandler was playing so well for the team that his loss was supposed to hurt the team. But then they got Jared Jeffries, New York’s Wilson Chandler before there ever was a Wilson Chandler. Landry Fields is a scrappy guard that can defend and give outside shooting when needed. Toney Douglas will also contribute greatly to their cause from the bench. Mike D’Antoni uses a short bench, so the other bench players not named Jeffries or Douglas would have to split the remaining minutes.
Prediction: New York in 6
I have been in this position 3 times last year, when I discounted the Celtics in every round they got into. But this year, I am a little bit more confident that they won’t get past the still excited New York Knicks, simply because of the loss of Kendrick Perkins. Other than physicality, he was somewhat the heart of the team. Yes, the Knicks are new to this postseason thing, but Carmelo and Amare are not. They can carry this team on their shoulders, as they have their previous teams. Despite the short bench, the starting unit is loaded with talents, so they wouldn’t need to rely too heavily on their bench. And with the core being young as they are, they would have enough energy to keep up with the Big 4 and veteran bench of Boston. On the other side of the spectrum, Boston’s age was a red flag for me last year, and it is still a red flag for me now. Their low post looks much too different with Nenad Kristic being a stretch 5 rather than a hulking force that was Perkins. Shaq’s health and Jermaine’s performance would greatly swing the series in favor of the Celts. But with health being a major issue at this point in time for Boston, the early to mid season run of the Celts may have been their last hurrah before full rebuild.
(2) Miami vs (7) Philadelphia
Roster:
PHILADELPHIA MIAMI
PG Jrue Holiday PG Mike Bibby
SG Jodie Meeks SG Dwayne Wade
SF Andre Iguodala SF LeBron James
PF Elton Brand PF Chris Bosh
C Spencer Hawes C Zydrunas Ilgauskas
The Bench
G/F Evan Turner G Mario Chalmers
F Thaddeus Young C Joel Anthony
F Andres Nocioni G/F Mike Miller
G/F Antonio Daniels F James Jones
F/C Mareese Speights F Juwan Howard
G Lou Williams G Eddie House
C Tony Battie C Jamaal Magloire
G/F Jason Kapono C Erik Dampier
F Darius Songaila F Udonis Haslem
Key Players: Andre Iguodala, LeBron James
Watch out for: The other Miami players
Season series: Miami won, 3-0
How the roster stacks up:
Philadelphia’s success this season has been attributed more to the coaching change rather than a drastic spike in player performances. That is not to take away anything from the talent in the roster. Elton Brand had a stretch of double-double performances in the season, and was a solid player for them in the post; not his Clipper-playoff run self, but at least better than his first year in Philly. Andre Iguodala was expected to be the face of the franchise, and though he wouldn’t post eye-popping numbers, he did put stats across the board that helped his team get much needed wins for a playoff push. Jrue Holiday has emerged as a solid point guard for their team. Evan Turner, the second pick in the draft, was solid, but not good enough to even challenge for the top rookie honors. He’s not franchise-player-of-the-future material, but he could be a very good Scottie Pippen, should Philly find a Micheal Jordan. Spencer Hawes has been solid as well. Mareese Speights still hasn’t been a consistent performer, but there’s potential there. Lou Williams was groomed to be the starting point guard before getting hurt and Holiday’s emergence, so there’s no lack of talent there. Thaddeus Young and Jodie Meeks will be the X-factors in this series for Philadelphia.
As expected when they first got together, Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh will be heavily-relied on. Then they got a bunch of veteran players who were willing to take less pay and a lesser role if only to win a championship or two. Mike Miller was supposed to be their 6th man, but despite his rebounds and court presence, he hasn’t done what he was brought here to do: shoot the ball from the outside. That need was filled up by James Jones when they needed it, and the ever-dependable Eddie House. Newly-acquired Mike Bibby now needs to channel his Sacramento days for Miami to win it all. Mario Chalmers provides solid defense at the point, and he can drain the occasional 3 ball. Joel Anthony has been so underrated this season, but he’s been their Dwight in the middle. While Z and Dampier can provide the size and veteran savvy (more for Z than Damp; Damp provides false inside presence, really. He’s one of the big factors why Miami won the championship against his Dallas team in 2006) inside, it really is Joel Anthony’s inside presence that greatly improves the team’s defense. With Udonis Haslem set to return by the playoffs, Miami will have a deep frontcourt come playoff time.
Prediction: Miami wins 4-1
Speaking not just a fanboy, but also on a basketball perspective, Miami is going to have a cakewalk in this series. Not that Philadelphia isn’t dangerous enough, but rather, Miami would just be too much for them to handle. Brand hasn’t been known for his defense, and Hawes would be a foul-prone young center. Thaddeus Young and Speights could probably provide defense, but against a team loaded with talents, two good defenders wouldn’t be enough. The problem that Miami will have to deal with is who gets the ball at the end of games. This has been Dwayne Wade’s team since day one until LeBron came to town. Carrying his MVP trophies and media hype, the diva in “King” James had to be satisfied by handing him the ball at the most crucial times of the game. There’s a reason why the Cavs never won it all despite having all the talents they needed, and there’s a reason why LeBron is never mentioned in the same breath as Kobe, Melo, and even Brandon Roy as the game’s best closer. Wade has been too good of a teammate focused on winning that he’d rather give the ball up to LeBron at the end of games just so ‘Bron won’t whine about not having it. I think this problem will cost them at least one game in this series, but ultimately knock some sense into *choker* LeBron and finally let Wade take control of his team.
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