...The 2012 NBA Playoffs: The Second Round...

The East:

(2) Miami Heat vs (3) Indiana Pacers

Background:

Both teams were expected to breeze through their first round opponents, with both their lower seeded opponents suffering from major injuries to important players on their team. However, the gritty Magic pulled off a couple of surprise wins against the Pacers, to make them work to get to where they are now. The Heat, on their part, had to withstand the offensive onslaught of Carmelo Anthony, and dropped a game in New York to give that team its first playoff win in years.

However, they clearly had their opponents overmatched ,and now thay face each other in the second round for what looks to be a fairly matched faceoff.

 
What to watch out for:

The Heat is always a fun team to watch, with highflyers LeBron James and Dwayne Wade manning the wings. They did show vulnerability against a fairly depleted New York Squad, but for the most part, they showed how good their team can be. Chris Bosh needs to show more of what he can do, but for this round, I think Shane Battier and Mike Miller's play will dictate how then Heat can navigate through this Pacers team theough their defense and offense, respectively. While their contributions were enough to close out the mostly one-man show Knicks, it won't be enough to stop the high-powered Pacers team.

 

David West showed he was willing to step it up in big games, and he picked up his pace at just the right time; during their playoff push and still going strong in the first round. Their point guard rotation is to be envied, with George Hill and Darren Collison alternating, and Leandro Barbosa can fill it up from that spot from time to time. Look for Roy Hibbert to make a living down low with no able body to stop him.

 

Roadblocks:

The Pacers are strong at the two spots the Heat are weak: the point and center spot. If the Heat can't make the necessary adjustments, David West and Roy Hibbert will school the Heat big men the same way Collison and Hill will own Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole.

 

Despite the lack of depth from 2 spots, the Heat are still too much to handle when all cylinders are clicking. While Pacers can match them up offensively, they need to rely on their team defense to stop the Heat stars.

 

Prediction: Heat in 6

No disrespect to the Indiana squad, and not just writing as a fan. I think the Pacers reached a stage where they're not ready yet, as it seems like this team was made to make a push next year. They were fortunate enough to not face Dwight Howard in the first round, but this hungry Heat team with everything to prove will be able to grind it out to win this close matchup. And I think they can do it on the road, after Indiana steals a home ga,e from them.

 

(8) Philadelphia 76ers vs (5) Boston Celtics

Background:

The Sixers made the upset of the year when they knocked off the Derrick Rose-less Bulls. While the Bulls were able to get the best record in the East without Rose for most of the year, the postseason is an entirely different story. The Celtics, on their part, knocked off the young Atlanta Hawks team, but not without scares. Al Horford came back to give the Celtics a difficult time disposing of the Hawks, but after missing most ofthe year because of injury, he was not able to pick up his game well enough to beat the Celtics. The C's, on their part, showed just how championship teams are made of.

 

What to watch out for:

The Sixers picked up Elton Brand to bring a legitimate superstar to the city. As talented as Andre Iguodala is, they know that he can't bring the championship to Philadelphia. The Sixers need more from Brand if they hope to continue their Cinderella run. How they stop Rajon Rondo's penetration will also help pick up wins for them.

 

Paul Pierce carried the C's in the clutch, and if Philly did its homework, they will lock him down for this series. Ray Allen needs to catch fire, as he will probably get looks with Pierce getting most of the defensive attention. While Brand is an offensive beast, he's not known to be a defensive pest. If Garnett could keep up his Game 6 performance, the Big Three will be able to make another strong run for a champiomship for the ageing Celtics.

 

Roadblocks:

Age and injuries seem to be the only things stopping these Celtics from making a serious run at a championship. They have bench depth, star power, and clutch performers. When healthy, this is a pretty formidable team. However, with most of their important players at the late stages of their careers, injuries can happen most often than usual.

 

The opposite can be said for Philadelphia, with youth and inexperience their possible pitfalls. They did upset the top seeded Bulls, but it can be argued that they were never really tested during that series. Facing a legit championship contender that is relatively healthy, the Sixers might be overwhelmed this round.

 

Prediction: Celtics in 5

 

Philly might keep this thing close in some games, but with the Celtics knowing their window is closing fast, they won't take their feet off the gas pedal to give the Sixers any hope of beating them.

 

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs (5) Los Angeles Clippers

Background:

The Spurs made quick work of the Jazz with a masterful first round showing. After being upset by Memphis last year, the Spurs have learned their lesson and destroyed the 8th seed like they are supposed to.

 

The Clippers, on their part, was pushed to the limit by the higher-seeded Grizzlies. The main difference would probably be Chris Paul in the clutch. Paul led his team to an amazing 22-pt deficit comeback win and showed just how much he brings to the Clips.

 

It might have been fun to watch the Spurs face the Grizz to avenge their first round loss last year, but seeing Lob City in the second round is in no means a weak consolation to that expected matchup.

 

What to watch out for:

The Spurs showcased their bench depth against the superstar-less Jazz, and they need more of that in the second round, with a Clippers crew led by arguably the best point guard in the league today in Chris Paul. Look for Stephen Jackson and Kawhi Leonard to get more minutes in this series, as they provide perimeter defense to keep Paul in check while letting Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker run wild on offense.

 

The Clippers big men need to step it up a notch,as they will face one of the most formidable and dynamic front court rotations in the NBAwith the Spurs. Tim Duncan can play inside out, Tiago Splitter is picking up his game that the Spurs expected from him when they picked him up, Matt Bonner has range, and Dajuan Blair is an rebounding beast. Blake Griffin should learn how to play defense, or he's going tovget schooled by Duncan. Kenyon Martin is a veteran who thrives when playing with an elite point guard. For this round, I think the Clips need DeAndre Jordan and Reggie Evans doing more for them. These are two able bodies who can defend the post and grab some boards. If they can defend the Spurs big men one on one, I think it would greatly help their cause.

Roadblocks:

The veteran savvy of the Spurs might be too much for the young Clippers to handle. They might have passed a tough test in the Memphis Grizzlies, but it was mostly due to Chris Paul's brilliant play and leadership than the Clippers actually developing playoff poise. They need other players to step up if they wish to advance against the Spurs.

 

Similar to the Celtics, it seems like this Spurs team can only be stopped by injuries to major players. While losing one of their stars may not cause them to lose the series, a couple might be difficult to handle. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are a couple of key players that have lost significant time due to injuries, and if by the unlikely chance that they both lose time during this series, they might find it difficult to adjust.

 

Prediction: Spurs in 5

Chris Paul can only carry this team so far. I think this will be a hardfought series, with the Clippers winning one for their home fans, but mostly not have enough to close games out.

 

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers

Background:

The Thunder swept the defending champions in the first round, and looks like the championship contender they were supposed to be after a strong showing last year. James Harden won the 6th man of the year award, while Kevin Durant once again clinched the scoring title, beating out Kobe Bryant this year. This team is going nowhere but up, and facing the same Lakers squad that had Metta World Peace blatantly elbow Harden in the last week of the regular season, and the same Lakers squad that beat them last year only adds more fire in this interesting matchup.

 

The Lakers had to work for thier spot in the second round after being pushed to the limit  by a deep Denver squad. They got World Peace back for Game 7 and they need him to not knock people out with elbows but rather knock down shots for them to win games.

 

What to watch out for:

While it would be amazing to watch the Lakers and the Clippers battle it out for West supremecy and Los Angeles love, both teams have an uphill battle ahead of them, facing teams of championship caliber as well. The Lakers face vengeful Oklahoma team they narrowly beat a couple of years ago, and now has what it lacked before (big men Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins) plus a third scoring option (James Harden) and a veteran with smarts and knows the enemy (Derek Fisher). If the Lakers hope to advance, they need to focus on defense rather than try to outscore the Thunder, because frankly, they can't run with the Thunder squad with that much firepower.

For the Thunder, James Harden should flourish, with defenses attracting Russel Westbrook  and Kevin Durant, while the big men would be occupied with the space taken up by Ibaka and Perkins. That Metta World Peace elbow? It only adds fuel to the already lit up fire. 

Roadblocks:

The experience factor is no longer an advantage for the Lakers. Despite the talent and depth this team has, the main difference of this team from the team that beat the Thunder was the Zen Master himself, Phil Jackson. The loss of Lamar Odom also hurt their team a lot, but it should have been compensated if MWP and Matt Barnes played up to par. They will not be able to run wild offensively against this much improved Thunder team, and they will get burned trying to outscore the Thunder and failing miserably at it. 

The Thunder is gaining swag, but that's not an entirely bad thing. It could be if they let it go to their heads, but looking at Durant, it doesn't look like it will. Overconfidence could burn them in this series, but its not too much of a roadblock. They have the tools to contain Kobe Bryant, but if Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum decide to show up, the Thunder will have problems.

Prediction: Thunder in 5

The Thunder have grown up right before our very eyes, and have the same drive as the older teams vying for a championship, which is scary when you think about it. While the Spurs and Celtics are pushing for one last trophy, this Thunder team still has a lot of ceiling left and they are already contenders. They have a bright future ahead of them, and destroying the Lakers would be a major step forward for this team. Not a dig on the Lakers, but the three key factors that are working against them are: 1. Mike Brown is no Phil Jackson, 2. Derek Fisher may not get enough minutes on the floor, but he's most needed on the bench and on practice, and 3. Kobe Bryant will not fall down without fighting and it will make or break this team, and it probably would break them, most likely.

...The 2012 NBA Playoffs: The East...

The playoffs are finally less than a week away, and matchups are already set. Everyone will have they say on who’s going past who and I’m going to be one of those friends you have who’s going to throw my opinions out there.

So here goes, from the perspective of an odds and fantasy player for the 2011-2012 NBA season, my picks for the first round matchups of both conferences.

(1) Chicago Bulls vs (8) Philadelphia 76ers
(Chicago won regular season, 2-1)

Bulls:

They are one of the best teams in the NBA this season, winning with or without reigning league MVP Derrick Rose. They have an abundance of talent to make up for the loss of even their best player. They are a title favorite, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to give up an upset.

Sixers:

They had a good stretch during the start of the regular season, which propelled them to the upper half of the East standings. However, as the season progressed, their performance dipped as well, losing games they should be winning. Now they’re down to the 8^th spot in the East, and it’s probably their own fault. They still are a dangerous team and can pull off an upset against another team, probably, but not the Bulls.

What to watch out for: The “Bench Mob” vs The “Night Shift”

This is a matchup of 2 bench-heavy teams; the difference being Chicago having a solid starting 5 filled with all-stars Rose, Boozer, Hamilton and almost All-Stars Deng and Noah while the Sixers have Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala (has he ever been an All-Star?), which says a lot when comparing talent depth of both squads. With Rose not being in his best form, look for the Bulls to look to their bench to see how they can best compensate for the lost production from Rose. On the other side, look for Sixers to employ a heavy reliance on their bench more because of adjustments rather than keeping their starters fresh. The way that Sixers team has been playing all year, it doesn’t look like they consider their “starters” to be their best 5 on the floor.

Who to watch out for:

Taj Gibson is going to have a field day in this series. The Sixers don’t have much inside presence, and Gibson might be able to use that to his advantage by posting up or just crashing the boards.

Spencer Hawes is still not 100%, and may not be able to provide the numbers he gave his team at the start of the season, but Nikola Vucevic has played well filling up for him. Lou Williams might make his case to be starting point guard at some of the games as well, if he can pick up the defensive slack to complement his explosive offensive game.

Prediction: Chicago in 5

I think this has a sweep potential, but I won’t go that far. I think the Sixers will win at least one of their home games, catching the Bulls off-guard.

(2) Miami Heat vs (7) New York Knicks
(Miami won regular season, 3-0)

Heat:

They’re on their way to yet another successful season together, with LeBron playing for his 3^rd MVP plum, and the team gaining more chemistry as this is their second season together with the three stars. Norris Cole has been a nice surprise for the Heat; the rookie has provided a nice spark off the bench to give more stability at the point guard spot behind Mario Chalmers (like they still actually needed it). They’re still undersized at the center position, with Joel Anthony not given enough minutes because he’s an offensive liability and Udonis Haslem not really the big, bruising center they need.

Knicks:

Fans have forgiven the Knicks for a dismal close to last year’s campaign, thinking this year would be better with Anthony and Stoudemire having training camp together. Then they got Tyson Chandler, which got everyone buzzing as it suddenly transformed them to title contenders. Then the losses. Then Jeremy Lin explodes from nowhere. Then he goes down to injury. Talk about an up and down season for the Knicks. They made a nice push to get in to the playoffs despite their season struggles, and only time will tell if that’s enough to overcome the mighty Heat.

What to watch out for: LeBron vs Melo

As much of a Dwayne Wade fan I am, I think this series is a test for LeBron more than it is for Wade. Wade can close out games, no doubt. But the way that LeBron has been playing has earned him the right to call the Heat “his” team. To complete this process, LeBron needs to own his team by actually closing out. He can take over games to give them a chance to win, but at the end of the game, he doesn’t seem to want to take that last shot. If he can learn how to close out, it will only make the Heat more dangerous as teams would not know how to deny the last possession when they have to guard both LeBron and Wade.

Adversely, Melo has shown time and again that he can close games. However, he can’t seem to always will his team to win, as he tries to do a little too much at times. New York has offensive options that can help Melo out in cutting leads down; streaky JR Smith and sweet-shooting Steve Novak are there, Landry Fields has some shooting range as well, plus the inside presence of Amar’e and Tyson Chandler.

Whoever learns faster, LeBron closing or Melo sharing, could determine the fate of these two teams.

Who to watch out for:

Chris Bosh will be a major factor in this series, if he decides to play the bruising center that they need (a realization he had during the offseason), or he just plays his role effectively. Much of the attention will go to LeBron and Wade, so Bosh needs to prove why there are 3 stars in this team.

Baron Davis is a strong candidate for the most crucial player in the Knicks roster. They have ball hogs in Melo and Amar’e who want to create for themselves, but if there’s a point guard who will be able to take them to the right spots, it would make this team more efficient. Davis could be a ball hog himself, and he does have a strong offensive game, so enhancing his passing game would greatly benefit the Knicks. 

Prediction: Miami in 6

New York has the potential for an upset, especially if they wax hot. But I don’t think this is their year just yet. I’m looking at Miami to close out in the Garden, as stars usually bring their A-game there.

(3) Indiana Pacers vs (6) Orlando Magic
(Orlando won regular season, 3-1)

Pacers:

This team is an illustration of what a “streaky” team looks like. Their regular season win-loss record is filled with long win streaks, but had losing streaks as long as those win streaks were. Like all teams, they lost some players due to injuries, but didn’t have significant roster losses to explain their long losing streaks. However, this team still looks good, with Roy Hibbert blossoming into an All-Star, David West regaining his form, Danny Granger still leading the pack, Paul George just having an amazing season, and the backcourt rotation of Darren Collison and George Hill where you can’t go wrong whoever you choose. The late season acquisition of Leandro Barbosa is a brilliant move for the Pacers to infuse an offensive boost in their bench.

Magic:

I’d say this was a potential upset if Dwight Howard would still be able to play for this series. They do have the tools to compete, with Glen Davis filling in nicely for Howard offensively and on the boards, JJ Redick and Jason Richardson shooting nicely at the backcourt, Jameer Nelson picking his game up, and Ryan Anderson having a career year. However, without Dwight, they’re not the same team.

What to watch out for: Pacers Dominance

If there’s a playoff series that I think I can bet my arm on, it would be this matchup. The hustle and energy of the Magic can only get them so far; the Pacers have those hustle and energy guys too in Lou Amundson and Tyler Hansborough.

Who to watch out for:

George Hill is a player that got the coach rethinking his point guard rotation when his initial choice of starting point guard comes back from injury. It’s a good problem to have, really. With his length and defensive prowess, Hill may just showcase how good a player he is and get the nod for a starting spot despite the return of Darren Collison.

Jameer Nelson was selected as an All-Star reserve some years back, but injury prevented him from playing in that game. Without superstar Dwight Howard manning the middle and this team desperately looking for an identity, Nelson has to find his all-star form and lead this team to win.

Prediction: Pacers in 5

I would call sweep, but the Magic look like a gutsy bunch that could pull off at least one win.

(4) Boston Celtics vs (5) Atlanta Hawks 
(Boston won regular season, 2-1)

Celtics:

The aging big three look like they still have something left in the tank and at the same time, they have look to have a good young core with them. Despite the loss of Jeff Green for the season due to a heart surgery, they did have nice revelations in their rookies Avery Bradley and Greg Stiemsma. Bradley has given them a lift on both ends of the floor when called on, and Stiemsma has been a shot blocking machine. The return of Marquis Daniels will also help the cause of the Celtics. Brandon Bass has been pretty solid for them but I think it would be more beneficial for him to move to the bench in favor of a center to play alongside Garnett, so that the Big Ticket can play his natural PF position rather than play as a center or for Bass to play undersized.

Hawks:

What started out as a great season for the Hawks went back down to being another mediocre season when Al Horford went down. If Horford does indeed return for the Hawks in the postseason, it will only improve their chances of advancing to the second round. Zaza Pachulia, who has been playing well to fill in for Horford, is also set to return, which will make the team formidable. They already have a strong backcourt with the improved Jeff Teague, the steady Kirk Hinrich, and the sharpshooting Joe Johnson. Marvin Williams has played his role nicely as the wing man, and rookie Ivan Johnson has shown skills and energy on both ends of the floor.

What to watch out for: Tradition against Promise

The Celtics has a winning tradition and a group of guys who understand and live by this tradition. The Hawks have a promising future ahead of them, with current players not even on their prime and already playing well. This will be a close series to call, with the Hawks trying to get over the hump by beating a Celtics team whose core has already won a championship.

Who to watch out for:

For Boston, there won’t be any surprises. Marquis Daniels might provide a spark off the bench, Sasha Pavlovic might have his moments, but for the most part, this is going to be where Paul Pierce will take over. Rajon Rondo’s brilliance have people buzzing over how he may be taking the torch even before the Big 3’s time is over, but I think Paul Pierce will step up to show the basketball world that this is still his time, their time.

Atlanta’s Josh Smith will need to get his head in the game if they want to win. His contributions show up in the stat sheet, but for the most part, he plays erratically and wants the ball when he doesn’t need to have it in his hands. He needs to crash the boards on both ends, and don’t try too much on the offense, because they have good players who can get him the ball on places where he can score.

Prediction: Boston in 7

Not a dig on the talent level of Boston, but more on respecting the Hawks’s ability to match up well against the Celtics. This could be over in 5 games, with the Hawks stealing one in Boston and the Celtics winning the rest of the games, but I’m leaning more on the possibility that this will be a home and home series, with no team giving up their homecourt advantage.

...Playoffs 2011: The Second Round...

The playoffs mark the start of separating the boys from the men. But it's relatively easy to determine who the contenders are and who outdid themselves. The second round is where the battle really begins: my predictions now are more based on my faith in the teams rather than an assessment of their first round performance. Sure the first round matters. But, as I said, I will predict based more on emotions, as all the series could go either way.

*I was 2 series off in the first round, relying too much on Spurs' experience (though in analysis, had the Grizz actually capable of an upset), and hating the Celtics too much to hope that Knicks could have a chance against them.

The East

(1) Chicago Bulls vs (5) Atlanta Hawks

How they got here:

Chicago was somewhat pushed to the limit by a nothing-to-lose Indiana Pacers team. They played their hearts out and almost pulled an upset over the top-seeded Bulls. Derrick Rose anchored the Bulls series win with amazing performances in every game. Pacers limited the Chicago bigs, especially Carlos Boozer, who was expected to anchor the Bulls offense inside. As expected, Pacers gave them a fight which they ultimately won. The series did nothing more than solidify Rose's case for MVP.

The Hawks pulled off the expected upset of the slightly-favored Orlando Magic. It may be argued that they won on 2 bad shots, one that went in (Jamaal Crawford's far 3 pointer in the closing moments of Game 4), and one that didn't (Hedo Turkgolu's forced 3-pointer as time expired in Game 5, despite an open, unbelievably hot Gilbert Arenas waiting for the pass). But a win is a win, and they bested one of the favored teams in the East. 

Prediction: Bulls in 7

As mentioned in my first round prediction, I believe that the Hawks are strong as a team. But the playoffs is about match ups. They got through the Orlando series because they match up well against them, and since the offensive playbook of the Magic revolves around Dwight Howard, it was fairly easy for them to advance because they had nice bigs to go against him one on one, making it difficult for the Magic to create other scoring opportunities (the idea behind the Magic offense is to pull everything to a monster force down low, so that the opposing team would double on him, and he'll find the open shooter). Now this is a pretty interesting match up, really.

Against Chicago, the Hawks' biggest piece is Kirk Hinrich. He was the face of the Chicago franchise before Rose came in and was essentially handed the keys to the team. It's not that Captain Kirk wasn't needed in the Bulls lineup anymore; he was a necessary sacrifice to pull off a transition to the Rose era. He's still an able defender, and having played with Rose for a full year last year, would have a pretty good idea how to defend his successor.

The Bulls' supposed advantage down low is the agile big men they have in Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. However, that can easily be offset by moving Al Horford back to the Center position to match up with Noah, and move Josh Smith back to the 4 spot to go up against Boozer.

Despite these match ups, I peg Chicago to win because of two things: Luol Deng and clutch situations. With everybody busy drooling over every play Derrick Rose makes, Deng will do the dirty stuff like clearing the boards and other intangibles like off-ball defense and stuff. Joe Johnson will have to work for his shots because they might slide Deng over to him if another able defender in Keith Bogans is on the bench. As for clutch, Atlanta relies heavily on sheer dumb luck rather than skill. Most of their close games were won because of a lapse on the part of the opposing team or a bad shot that just miraculously fell through. Their best clutch player would be Joe Johnson, and he will be defended well. Chicago has Rose who will create on an isolation, and once he gets that first step on his first defender, it doesn't matter if there were 5 guys who goes up against him.

Prediction goes otherwise if: 

Derrick Rose's ankle injury gets worse. The Bullls go as far as D-Rose takes them, despite the abundance of talent in that lineup. 

*AFTER REVIEW FROM HAWKS.COM: After MRI on his ankle, it was revealed that Kirk Hinrich suffered a significant injury that could keep him out of the Chicago series. This is a huge blow that could drive Chicago to sweep or drop just one game. 

(2)Miami Heat vs (3) Boston Celtics

How they got here:

Miami had a fairly easy time against Philadelphia, but they did not leave that series unchallenged. Philly gave a good fight, but the three superstars responded well to the challenge. It was great for them to lose a game to the over-performing/well-coached Sixers, because it eliminates the illusion of invincibility in the team. They saw what happens when LeBron has the ball in close, end game situations, and when they put the ball in Wade's hands. What they do with what they know is up to them, but will probably dictate the series.

The defending East champs swept the Knicks, but that doesn't mean they didn't get a scare. The series came down to who had more big time players. Rondo played like it was the first half of the season again, and KG came up clutch in Game 2, which was a big blow to the morale of the Knicks. To some extent, they might have had the luck of the draw when Amar'e got injured, but that is no excuse. The C's is a good team that is a legit contender for the NBA Title. I daresay that whoever comes out of this series will win the East, no matter who comes out of the other East series. This is a true test of fire for both teams predicted to be on top of the East during the preseason.

Prediction: Miami in 7

This is a series that could go either way, no matter how Celtics fans insist that this is going to be easy for them. The biggest thing Miami has now that they never had against a favored opponent is home court advantage. This year, they start at home, coming off a win to close out the Philadelphia series. They still have momentum in the building, while the C's have rested a bit. I expect this series to be a home and home series, with no team stealing one on the road. They have genuine hate for each other, with trash thrown each other's ways directly, indirectly, in-game, and off-the court. 

The season series showed how Celtics can dominate the Miami Superfriends, but if it's any indication, Miami won the final encounter between the two teams. Have they figured out how to beat the Celtics? Or was it a lucky break? For certain, the Celtics couldn't have tanked that matchup, since they were both in the running for the top or second spot in the east then, and they would probably choose to lose against the Wizards or something rather than lose to Miami.

This series can't be dissected into match ups, because this is about pride for both teams more than anything else. Well, probably second to LeBron's diva-esque need to "take revenge" on the Celtics for beating him twice as a member of the Cavaliers in the past 3 years. Checking out the match ups though; the Center position is not too much of a factor since Perk was traded away. Essentially, it is the weak spot for the Heat, but Joel Anthony has gone unnoticed throughout the season, but is actually an underrated player. He plays the role that Perk once did for the C's when they had their championship run; with all the attention on the Big Three, Perk was essentially the anchor in the middle that enabled KG to extend his range. For Anthony, he has improved his offensive awareness and has greater confidence now, understanding that he has to contribute in order for his team to win. Early on in the season, he will pump fake or hesitate if he gets the ball inside. Now, he just goes up strong. For the C's, they are still hoping for Shaq to come back to play for them, but they have a plethora of big men to fill up space in the middle. Not as good as Perk, but enough to offset Anthony.

The PF spot is a no contest, with KG dominating that spot. Bosh was never known to be a tenacious defender, but he can most certainly try. They essentially play the same role on offense; stretch the D with range, and mix in some post up moves occasionally. On defense, though, KG could eat Bosh on both ends.

The 3 spot is a marquee match up against the Diva, er.. "King" and The Truth. It's always a joy to watch both players going at it, with Pierce's range and clutch shooting offsetting James' "talent" and athleticism.

The battle at the two spot features two players who can beat the other's team in their own ways; Allen can shoot the lights out on the other team while Wade can dissect the defense to create for himself.

At the point, Rondo's superior ability to orchestrate the Boston offense can be a huge problem for the Heat. They have Mario Chalmers who can try to stop him, but not much anyone else. Mike Bibby and Eddie House are essentially the same players; shooters, but defends like a high school girl. The difference would probably be the confidence that Chalmers carries over from their last win against Philadelphia; he was fed with the ball and was asked to shoot. With guys like LeBron and Wade egging you to shoot, and giving you that much confidence in a closeout game, how can you not trust yourself?

Prediction goes otherwise if: 

The bench players of Boston produce as they're expected to. Clearly, talent-wise, Boston is stacked while Miami is so-so because they spent their cash on bringing in "talents" for their team. They do have Mike Miller and possibly Udonis Haslem, but how much can that match up against a more confident Jeff Green and an energized Glen Davis? 

The West

(4)Oklahoma City Thunder vs (8)Memphis Grizzlies

How they got here: 

Oklahoma got the better of a well-coached team in Denver, crushing Denver's hopes of becoming the second team since the 03/04  (I forgot which) Detroit team that went all the way to the finals despite not having a legit star. But people expected much from OKC since pushing the Lakers to 7 games last season, and Kevin Durant nearly winning the MVP title last year. This year, Westbrook's improvement "dimmed" Durant's chance to challenge for the MVP title. They combined masterfully to conquer the scrappy Denver team, and despite the 4-1 series win, they didn't go through it unchallenged. 

As mentioned in my West prediction blog, the Grizz are a dangerous team more than capable of pulling off an upset over the Spurs. I did not think that they'd do it this year, but Manu Ginobili playing hurt throughout the series may have affected the play of the Spurs, not to mention the ever-efficient Tim Duncan getting dominated by Zach Randolph. Tony Allen has been huge for the Grizz, more for his intangibles than anything; championship experience, defense, energy, and pure love for the game and constant desire to improve. Marc Gasol has been big for the Grizz in the series, literally and figuratively. He has been the better Gasol in the postseason so far. 

Prediction: Oklahoma in 6

The Thunder was a Pau Gasol tip in away from preventing the Lakers from a 3-peat. This year, they have a dramatically improved team; Westbrook has been phenomenal, and Kendrick Perkins has changed their defensive make-up, allowing Serge I-blocka to slide down to the 4 to provide outstanding interior defense that they didn't have last year. As I mentioned, the post season is all about match ups, and this one just doesn't happen to favor the Grizz too much, especially considering their first round performance. 

The Grizz relied heavily on their leader, Zach Randolph throughout the season and against the Spurs. Marc Gasol performed excellent as well against the San Antonio bigs. The difference now is that they have Perkins and Ibaka manning the middle for the Thunder, rendering Gasol's post up moves, and pretty much every Grizzly drive to the hole, a low-percentage shot. On offense, Z-bo can probably stretch Ibaka out to the perimeter, but can't do the same for Perk. Z-bo and Gasol are going to be beaten up with Ibaka and Perk pounding their chests in the middle. 

The Grizz have two defensive specialists in their lineup as well; Tony Allen and Shane Battier to cover Kevin Durant and Russel Westbrook's offense, which is good news. The bad news for them; the Thunder still has James Harden, who will be left unguarded in their offense should Allen slide down to defend Westbrook. Mike Conley is an able playmaker, but won't do much for defense, either on Westbrook or on Harden.

I maintain that Z-bo's 3 pointer in game 3 in the closing minutes of the game was the difference in the San Antonio series. It generally destroyed the morale of the team in that game, and the negative psyche of being down 3-1 didn't help the young core of players I expected to help the Spurs in this series. Had Z-bo missed that shot, this series would've easily gone 2-2, with the Spurs closing out at home in 7. That said, the Thunder have two closers/clutch players in Westbrook and Durant, while the Grizz will be a bit predictable; turning to Z-bo in the clutch. 

Prediction goes otherwise if: 

Harden fails to show up for the Thunder. With Westbrook and Durant clearly being marked men, the Thunder will have to rely on other players to pick up the slack and give Memphis all that it could handle. 

(2)Los Angeles Lakers vs (3) Dallas Mavericks

How they got here: 

The defending champs met a bit of a roadblock in New Orleans, when the latter stunned them at home in game 1 of their series, which was expected to be swept by the Lakers after the Hornets' leading scorer, David West, went down at the end of the season. Chris Paul was sensational in the series, and it took a Kobe Bryant dunk to wake the boys in Purple and Gold. They Lakers eventually took care of business, but not without showing chinks in their armor.

The Mavericks have always been criticized for their defense, and as I recognized (won't so much as claim that I had the original idea, since I did read from several authors), their team make up changed when they picked up Tyson Chandler in the offseason. The series could have easily gone either way, but ultimately, the Mavs prevailed thanks to the ever-reliable Diggler. It's not the lack of talent that doomed the Blazers, nor is it the lack of will (see Brandon Roy's performance in game 4). I daresay that it is the dramatic improvement of the Mavericks, finally claiming to have a "D" in Dallas. 

Prediction: Lakers in 6

Despite the improved team, the Mavericks won't be able to overcome the Lakers. I honestly want to give the Mavs their home wins, but I think, with the swagger that the Lakers are carrying now, they would make a statement and close out on game 6 in Dallas. The Mavs are too hyped up and too good to be swept in this round. And yes, I would bet on that.

The Lakers have Matt Barnes back and Ron Artest flexing his muscles again, not to mention Steve Blake back to provide stability in the back court. This cast of supporting players can shut down a wide array of Dallas weapons, from the starting lineup to the bench. And we haven't talked about the huge Laker frontcourt in Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom.

The huge advantage Dallas had over the Blazers was clutch play. Brandon Roy wasn't the same player he was before he got injured. Now, Dirk's clutch play will be offset by arguably the best closer in the game; the Black Mamba, Kobe Bryant.

Shawn Marion has been pretty much the most consistent player in the Mavs lineup since the start of the season, but he's not the same Matrix as he was some years back in Phoenix. He can still defend and give the intangibles on the court, but with the stack of talent in LA, you can't just stop Kobe and expect the whole team to collapse. 

Pau Gasol has been criticized throughout their series with the Hornets, considering he didn't have to defend a David West. However, he didn't dominate the paint as he was expected to, prompting critics to burn Pau by saying the better Gasol is in Memphis right now. If Marion can successfully defend Kobe, Gasol's effectiveness will play a huge part in the Lakers' success. 

Prediction goes otherwise if:

Kobe Bryant's ankle injury is legit. It's one thing to miss Kobe for a few minutes, but it's another to miss him all throughout. Other than that, there aren't too many scenarios where Lakers will lose this round. It's not to underestimate the Mavs, I understand how good a team they are, but the Lakers are just too much for the Mavs to handle. The season-ending injury to Caron Butler may have doomed their chances for a deep playoff run even before the playoffs began. 

====================================================================

I'm going for games going 6-7 games deep not to play safe, but more because these games are just too close to call (except the Bulls series if Hinrich is out of commission). These are the best of the NBA, and it would be interesting to see the winners of the Miami-Boston series and the Dallas-LA series, as they would come out better teams after being tested by such quality teams. 

...The Playoffs 2011: The East...

It's that time of the season again, where the top 16 teams separate themselves from the rest of the pack, and slug it out for the biggest prize in the league: the NBA Championship. I give annual predictions for the playoffs, and I think I have a pretty decent positive percentage. These predictions earn me nothing, and this writing this does me no good. But I just like the feeling of being right and actually having proof that I was.=)) 

This year, with all the Fantasy Basketball knowledge that I have, I can give a more in-depth analysis on my predictions and not just base it on stats. I have also decided to make predictions per round, if in case I get some predictions wrong. For the time being, the West seedings are still a bit blurry for me, but at least I got to finish The East already. 

(1) Chicago Bulls vs (8) Indiana Pacers

Roster:
INDIANA         CHICAGO

G Darren Collison                                            PG Derrick Rose
G Paul George                                                SG Ronnie Brewer
F Danny Granger                                             SF Luol Deng
PF Tyler Hansborough                                      PF Carlos Boozer
C Roy Hibbert                                                   C  Joakim Noah

The Bench

G Tj Ford                                                          C Omer Asik
C Jeff Foster                                                   SG Keith Bogans
G/F Mike Dunleavy                                         G/F Rasual Butler
G Dahntay Jones                                               F Taj Gibson
C Solomon Jones                                           G/F Kyle Korver
F Josh McRoberts                                             G John Lucas III
G/F James Posey                                             G Jannero Pargo
G A.J. Price                                                   F/C Brian Scalabrine
G/F Brandon Rush                                          F/C Kurt Thomas
G Lance Stephenson                                         G C.J. Watson

Key Players: Derrick Rose, Danny Granger

Watch out for: Bench players on both teams

Season series: Chicago won, 3-1

How the roster stacks up:

Derrick Rose is playing an incredible season. Sure the Spurs have played well throughout the season, but the Bulls have been just as good after a slow start. Unlike last year when there were debates flaring out about who the MVP was, this season, Rose has emerged as the heavy favorite, with no one close to even try and take that away from him (except Dwight Howard, of course). They are virtually an unstoppable team, with the 2 spot being the only apparent weakness. And to think they can fill that out with defensive specialist Ronnie Brewer, bench sparkplug C.J. Watson, sharpshooter Kyle Korver, and veteran starter Keith Bogans. Old reliable Jannero Pargo can also fill that spot up. Taj Gibson and Omer Asik won’t do much scoring but will definitely make offensive players work for their shots, and rebounding can be a bitch with those two manning the paint. Brian Scalabrine and Kurt Thomas give veteran presence when they are called. 

Indiana, for its part, is one of the few teams in the league that can go 15-deep in their lineup. Though not as talented as 8-deep lineups, they have an infinite number of combinations they can use. Tyler Hansborough and Josh McRoberts have shown great improvements this season. If Roy Hibbert can stay out of foul trouble and regain his dominant form at the start of the season before getting injured, he surely would be a force to reckon with inside. Rookie Paul George has shown flashes of brilliance to complement Danny Granger’s lackluster performances as of late. Mike Dunleavy is an effective scorer when healthy. Dahntay Jones can provide energy, a defensive presence, and a bit of a scoring punch off the bench. And people forget how good T.J. Ford is. Jeff Foster is also an underrated center.

Prediction: Bulls win, 4-0

This is a series that can’t be placed on a storybook type of scenario. No team can play the part of villain because both teams are filled with so much heroes. They all play hard, and they’re all talented from the starting 5 to the 15^th player on the bench. However, as good as the Pacers have been all season, they’re not as good as the red-hot Bulls right now. Not to take anything away from the great season that the Pacers have had, but I do think that the first experience of being in the playoffs would prove to be too much for the young guys in the team to be able to perform at the level they’re playing now. This will be a competitive series, and games will be close, but ultimately, the Pacers won’t win in Chicago, and the Bulls have too much momentum on their side by Game 3, that by Game 4, the Pacers will have already been too demoralized to win.

(4) Orlando vs (5) Atlanta

Roster:

      ORLANDO         ATLANTA

PG Jameer Nelson                                           PG Kirk Hinrich
SG Jason Richardson                                      SG Joe Johnson
SF Hedo Turkgolu                                            SF Marvin Williams
PF Brandon Bass                                            PF Josh Smith
C Dwight Howard                                               C Al Horford

The Bench

F Ryan Anderson                                           G/F Jamaal Crawford
G Chris Duhon                                                  C Zaza Pachulia
F/C Earl Clark                                                G/F Damien Wilkins
F Malik Allen                                                    G Jeff Teague
G Gilbert Arenas                                               F Josh Powell
G JJ Reddick                                                    C Hilton Armstrong
G/F Quentin Richardson                                    C Jason Collins

Key Players: Dwight Howard, Al Horford

Watch out for: Jameer Nelson, Atlanta bigs

Season series: Atlanta won, 3-1

How the roster stacks up:

The early season trade that Orlando pulled off took the league by surprise. It drastically improved the Magic’s roster by getting back arguably their MVP during their Finals run in Hedo Turkgolu, traded a former all-star for another former all-star (Gilbert Arenas for Rashard Lewis), and got a borderline all-star in Jason Richardson. But things didn’t run as smoothly as expected, and they eventually fell to the 4^th spot in the East, after being a heavy favorite back in the preseason. They still have a wide arsenal at their command; Ryan Anderson is a stretch 4 in the Hedo mold without the playmaking ability; Jameer Nelson still has something to prove after being criticized for making a comeback in their finals run despite Rafer Alston and Jason Williams capably manning the point at that time; Brandon Bass is a workhorse that takes care of the boards ably; and JJ Reddick has improved his defense drastically to become a major part of the rotation. These facts, added to the fact that Dwight Howard is on their team, make the Magic that much scarier to face in the first round. What could be scarier is if Gilbert Arenas regains his playoff form circa 2006.

Atlanta has had its hot and cold streaks all season. The trade that blindsided starting point guard Mike Bibby and sent him to Washington in exchange for Kirk Hinrich didn’t seem like it would matter, but I think the defense that Kirk Hinrich brings to the team is a valuable asset for the Hawks. And no matter how clutch Joe Johnson is and that he’s the man for Atlanta, the Hawks can only go as far as Al Horford will take them. Josh Smith is an all-around player that will contribute greatly on both ends of the floor. Marvin Williams still has to prove his worth after being picked before Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Jamaal Crawford is a 6^th man playing starters’ minutes, and he’s been playing at a starter’s level. Jeff Teague has been handed the reins and will perform when called. Hilton Armstrong, Josh Powell, Zaza Pachulia, and Jason Collins have bodies wide enough to fill up the paint. Damien Wilkins is a solid bench player that knows his role in the rotation.

Prediction: Atlanta in 6

After careful deliberation and research, I have come to the conclusion that Atlanta is a more sound team than Orlando coming in to the playoffs. Despite the big names and all that talent in the Magic bench, they still have not figured out how to optimize their roster. For Atlanta, they just got better with Hinrich-for-Bibby swap. They’ve been a project for several years, and this might be the peak of their team in terms of talent. The team has been solid with few roster shakeups as compared to the Magic and their drastic changes over the course of the season. With the Magic anchored so much on Dwight Howard, they get to win games because he is so dominant down low. However, the Hawks have able bodies in Pachulia, Collins, Armstrong, and Powell who are not afraid to go toe-to-toe with the big fella and take him one on one. With everybody else not leaving to double on Dwight, it makes it that much difficult for him because he has to create his own shots, and not be able to kick out to shooters because no one’s open. I see a shocker in Game 1, with Atlanta taking it, and the rest of the games for the home team to take the wins.

(3) Boston vs (6) New York

Roster:

      BOSTON NEW YORK

PG Rajon Rondo                                               PG Chauncey Billups
SG Ray Allen                                                   SG Landry Fields
SF Paul Pierce                                                 SF Carmelo Anthony
PF Kevin Garnett                                              PF Amare Stoudemire
C Jermaine O’Neal                                              C Ronnie Turiaf

The Bench
 
F Jeff Green                                                        F Jared Jeffries
F/C Glen Davis                                                   G Roger Mason Jr
C Nenad Kristic                                                  G Toney Douglas
F Troy Murphy                                                    G Anthony Carter
G Carlos Arroyo                                                  F Derrick Brown
F Sasha Pavlovic                                                F Renaldo Balkman
G/F Von Wafer                                                   F Shelden Williams
C Shaquille O’Neal                                             G Shawne Williams
G Delonte West                                                 G Bill Walker

Key Players: Rajon Rondo, Amar’e Stoudemire

Watch out for: The vets vs superstar pairing

Season series: Boston won, 3-1

How the roster stacks up:

Boston is in stuck in the middle of rebuild and championship push. While their team was performing well, they decide to ship Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma to find a player that would fill up Paul Pierce’s spot in the team. The future of the Celtics looks like Rajon Rondo and Glen Davis being the anchors, and they needed a third young player preferably at the wing position to build the team around on in the future. They got that in Jeff Green, but in the process, lost the big body and physicality Perkins can give the team inside. Now, it seems that they need to get the O’Neals healthy again, because Troy Murphy and Nenad Kristic aren’t those strong, physical types. Carlos Arroyo seems like a solid pickup, especially with the talented, but fragile Delonte West being their backup point. Sasha Pavlovic offers defense and some perimeter shooting, but they won’t look to him so much to contribute. If Von Wafer finds his form when he was in Houston, he would be a very valuable asset to this team. Much has been said about the Big Three, and their performances would dictate what happens to this team in the postseason, but this run is the team’s transition of handing the team over to Rajon Rondo.

After striking out in the free agent bonanza of 2010, New York “settled” for Amar’e Stoudemire and his unsure knees. Then he breaks out and goes for monstrous performances night in and night out, and literally carry the team on his back. Then he even got his wish when management decided to turn the roster over and grab the disgruntled Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets. Chauncy Billups is a solid bonus in that trade, as well as the veteran locker room presence of Anthony Carter. These two should keep the young superstar tandem of the apostrophed ones’ egos at bay. Wilson Chandler was playing so well for the team that his loss was supposed to hurt the team. But then they got Jared Jeffries, New York’s Wilson Chandler before there ever was a Wilson Chandler. Landry Fields is a scrappy guard that can defend and give outside shooting when needed. Toney Douglas will also contribute greatly to their cause from the bench. Mike D’Antoni uses a short bench, so the other bench players not named Jeffries or Douglas would have to split the remaining minutes.

Prediction: New York in 6

I have been in this position 3 times last year, when I discounted the Celtics in every round they got into. But this year, I am a little bit more confident that they won’t get past the still excited New York Knicks, simply because of the loss of Kendrick Perkins. Other than physicality, he was somewhat the heart of the team. Yes, the Knicks are new to this postseason thing, but Carmelo and Amare are not. They can carry this team on their shoulders, as they have their previous teams. Despite the short bench, the starting unit is loaded with talents, so they wouldn’t need to rely too heavily on their bench. And with the core being young as they are, they would have enough energy to keep up with the Big 4 and veteran bench of Boston. On the other side of the spectrum, Boston’s age was a red flag for me last year, and it is still a red flag for me now. Their low post looks much too different with Nenad Kristic being a stretch 5 rather than a hulking force that was Perkins. Shaq’s health and Jermaine’s performance would greatly swing the series in favor of the Celts. But with health being a major issue at this point in time for Boston, the early to mid season run of the Celts may have been their last hurrah before full rebuild.

(2) Miami vs (7) Philadelphia

Roster:

   PHILADELPHIA MIAMI

PG Jrue Holiday                                                  PG Mike Bibby
SG Jodie Meeks                                                 SG Dwayne Wade
SF Andre Iguodala                                               SF LeBron James             
PF Elton Brand                                                   PF Chris Bosh
C Spencer Hawes                                                 C Zydrunas Ilgauskas

The Bench
 
G/F Evan Turner                                                   G Mario Chalmers
F Thaddeus Young                                               C Joel Anthony
F Andres Nocioni                                               G/F Mike Miller
G/F Antonio Daniels                                              F James Jones
F/C Mareese Speights                                           F Juwan Howard
G Lou Williams                                                     G Eddie House
C Tony Battie                                                       C Jamaal Magloire
G/F Jason Kapono                                                C Erik Dampier
F Darius Songaila                                                 F Udonis Haslem

Key Players: Andre Iguodala, LeBron James

Watch out for: The other Miami players

Season series: Miami won, 3-0

How the roster stacks up:

Philadelphia’s success this season has been attributed more to the coaching change rather than a drastic spike in player performances. That is not to take away anything from the talent in the roster. Elton Brand had a stretch of double-double performances in the season, and was a solid player for them in the post; not his Clipper-playoff run self, but at least better than his first year in Philly. Andre Iguodala was expected to be the face of the franchise, and though he wouldn’t post eye-popping numbers, he did put stats across the board that helped his team get much needed wins for a playoff push. Jrue Holiday has emerged as a solid point guard for their team. Evan Turner, the second pick in the draft, was solid, but not good enough to even challenge for the top rookie honors. He’s not franchise-player-of-the-future material, but he could be a very good Scottie Pippen, should Philly find a Micheal Jordan. Spencer Hawes has been solid as well. Mareese Speights still hasn’t been a consistent performer, but there’s potential there. Lou Williams was groomed to be the starting point guard before getting hurt and Holiday’s emergence, so there’s no lack of talent there. Thaddeus Young and Jodie Meeks will be the X-factors in this series for Philadelphia.

As expected when they first got together, Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh will be heavily-relied on. Then they got a bunch of veteran players who were willing to take less pay and a lesser role if only to win a championship or two. Mike Miller was supposed to be their 6^th man, but despite his rebounds and court presence, he hasn’t done what he was brought here to do: shoot the ball from the outside. That need was filled up by James Jones when they needed it, and the ever-dependable Eddie House. Newly-acquired Mike Bibby now needs to channel his Sacramento days for Miami to win it all. Mario Chalmers provides solid defense at the point, and he can drain the occasional 3 ball. Joel Anthony has been so underrated this season, but he’s been their Dwight in the middle. While Z and Dampier can provide the size and veteran savvy (more for Z than Damp; Damp provides false inside presence, really. He’s one of the big factors why Miami won the championship against his Dallas team in 2006) inside, it really is Joel Anthony’s inside presence that greatly improves the team’s defense. With Udonis Haslem set to return by the playoffs, Miami will have a deep frontcourt come playoff time.

Prediction: Miami wins 4-1

Speaking not just a fanboy, but also on a basketball perspective, Miami is going to have a cakewalk in this series. Not that Philadelphia isn’t dangerous enough, but rather, Miami would just be too much for them to handle. Brand hasn’t been known for his defense, and Hawes would be a foul-prone young center. Thaddeus Young and Speights could probably provide defense, but against a team loaded with talents, two good defenders wouldn’t be enough. The problem that Miami will have to deal with is who gets the ball at the end of games. This has been Dwayne Wade’s team since day one until LeBron came to town. Carrying his MVP trophies and media hype, the diva in “King” James had to be satisfied by handing him the ball at the most crucial times of the game. There’s a reason why the Cavs never won it all despite having all the talents they needed, and there’s a reason why LeBron is never mentioned in the same breath as Kobe, Melo, and even Brandon Roy as the game’s best closer. Wade has been too good of a teammate focused on winning that he’d rather give the ball up to LeBron at the end of games just so ‘Bron won’t whine about not having it. I think this problem will cost them at least one game in this series, but ultimately knock some sense into *choker* LeBron and finally let Wade take control of his team.