The playoffs are finally less than a week away, and matchups are already set. Everyone will have they say on who’s going past who and I’m going to be one of those friends you have who’s going to throw my opinions out there.
So here goes, from the perspective of an odds and fantasy player for the 2011-2012 NBA season, my picks for the first round matchups of both conferences.
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs (8) Utah Jazz
(San Antonio won regular season, 3-1)
Spurs:
The late season acquisition of Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson only made the formidable Spurs much more scarier. They already have the still young Tony Parker, the immortal Tim Duncan, the exciting Manu Ginobili, the workhorse Dajuan Blair, and the Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter. Then you remember how Gary Neal was last year for them, see how effective Danny Green has been for Pop, and why they let go of George Hill in favor of rookie Kawhi Leonard. Despite the early retirement of TJ Ford (who was poised to have a good year before he got injured), the Spurs have maintained their competitiveness and excellence.
Jazz:
Gordon Hayward was best known for hitting a huge halfcourt shot for his college team that came out of nowhere two seasons ago. Despite not having an eye-popping rookie season (which was expected, considering his claim to fame), he took that thing called “sophomore slump” and ripped it apart, having a great season with Utah. Not to mention Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap dominating the boards all season long. Derrick Favors and rookie Enes Kanter provide stability in the frontcourt, as they can fill in nicely for the starters. Devin Harris has had a forgettable season, but he has picked up his game as of late, and may be able to carry that over to the postseason. Jamaal Tinsley has revived his career in Utah.
What to watch out for: Redemption, in different lights
The Spurs had the best record in the league last year, and clinched the top seed in the West. However, they fell to the 8th seeded Grizzlies, who were appearing in the postseason for the first time in a long while, their last when Pau Gasol was still wearing a Grizzlies jersey. This year, the Spurs look to redeem themselves as they again have the top seed and are matched up with another team that’s coming back to the postseason after missing out last year due to a roller coaster ride of a season that saw them losing their longtime head coach, the face of their franchise, and their postseason appearance streak. Whose “redemption” is hungrier would determine who will win this series.
Who to watch out for:
Coach Greg Poppovich gave Tim Duncan a DNP-CD (Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision) with a reason being “old”. Timmy’s been playing great basketball this season, and Pop has done a great job of keeping him fresh for this stretch run. I’d say this might be Timmy’s encore, but who knows, he might still play next season. But the real story to watch out for in San Antonio has got to be Stephen Jackson. He had a good run in Golden State before things got sour. He had a good thing going in Charlotte and management decided to break it up. He never got his game going in Milwaukee, and now he’s back with a contender. He won’t be the main man, but how great is it for your team knowing that you have a main man-caliber player playing off your bench behind Manu Ginobili. And don’t forget Danny Green’s been playing stellar basketball too. Boris Diaw is also a name that should be watched, as he could thrive as a point-forward while Tony Parker is resting on the bench. That is one deep bench.
Devin Harris needs to regain his all-star form if the Jazz want to come out on top. They have the bigs to match up with the Spurs bigs and a competitive backcourt rotation, but may be a little weak at the wing position after Josh Howard went down. Hopes hinge on the continued rise of Gordon Hayward, but the spotlight should be on Harris, as he has not delivered on the expectations of him. This would be a perfect time for him to show up.
Prediction: Spurs in 5
I would not be surprised if this went to seven games, considering the brilliant play of Millsap and Jefferson. However, the Spurs team looks good not only on paper because of the system that they run.
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (7) Dallas Mavericks
(Oklahoma won regular season, 3-1)
Thunder:
The Thunder has dominated their opponents this season with hot shooting from their stars (scoring champ favorite Kevin Durant, all around point Russell Westbrook, and super sub James Harden), and the defense of Kendrick Perkins and shot blocking machine Serge Ibaka. The rest of the roster just understands what their roles are in contributing to the success of the team, which I think Coach Scott Brooks should be credited for. There are not much airheads in this team (Kendrick Perkins may be a candidate, but they need his swag to make the team balanced), and it’s hard not to love this Thunder squad because they work hard and they don’t really talk much smack.
Mavericks:
Letting Tyson Chandler go was a head scratcher, getting Lamar Odom was almost genius but it never really took off. The Mavericks never really got their stride this season, with most of their key players suffering injuries and cold streaks. After years of lacking a solid big man to win it all, they got it in Chandler last season, and they got their title. I never understood why they had to let him go, considering Mark Cuban’s willingness to spend. From what they have now, they need to settle with Ian Mahinmi in the middle, and hope that Brendan Haywood turns out to be the force they hoped he would be when they got him. Vince Carter had his moments this season when it looked like he turned back the clock, but in true Vince Carter-esque fashion, he has been inconsistent in his production all season long.
What to watch out for: The “Future” making it “Now”
The defending champions have a formidable test ahead of them, with the Thunder squad growing up way too fast for the old guards (powerhouse teams of the last decade who still have some fight left). The Thunder would want to get past the aging (and totally different) Mavericks team easily to “actualize” all those “potential” people said they have. Dallas may have earned their “champion” tag and would have the hunger to defend it, but would that hunger be stronger than when they didn’t have their rings yet? Jason Kidd’s production seems to say it isn’t so.
Who to watch out for:
Kevin Durant will take over for the Thunder. That’s the popular choice, and I’m going with it. But considering this Dallas squad, I think Kendrick Perkins will have his field day owning the glass and the paint. He will play a major factor and re-affirm the perception that his acquisition last year was the biggest boost in the Thunder’s title hopes. Derek Fisher will complement Perkins’ championship experience with his veteran wisdom and leadership skills, which will be the key factor in the Thunder negating that “championship experience” advantage by the Mavs.
While it seems at times that this Dallas squad has lost its fight, look for Dirk and Kidd to not easily give up that title they have dedicated their lives to claim as theirs. Their numbers this season have been disappointments, especially Kidd, but I think they’ll pick it up on their home floor after they get spanked by the Thunder in OKC.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
I initially had Dallas upsetting the Thunder in 7 games, but looking back at the season and looking at the makeup of both squads, I am leaning more towards believing that the Thunder is going to grow up fast than the creaky legs of Dallas suddenly getting greased. That “championsip poise” advantage is limited to Kidd, Dirk, and to some extent, Terry because this is not the same Dallas team that won it last year. Their veterans can only take them so far, and this year, it doesn’t look very far, really. Besides, with Derek Fisher on that Thunder bench, it’s not difficult to imagine that these kids will mature fast.
(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs (6) Denver Nuggets
(Los Angeles won, 3-1)
Lakers
Safe to say that Los Angeles is still Lakerland rather than Lob City? Their supremacy in the City of Angels has been challenged by their co-leasers at Staples, but at the end of the season, they have a slightly better record than the buzzing Clippers. Andrew Bynum is turning out to be a force inside, but shows he’s still young by making some bad decisions and throwing tantrums. Pau Gasol has had a fantastic season, and he’s extending his range more, with Bynum ably manning the middle, stretching defenses and opening it up for slashers. Kobe Bryant had a ridiculous start of the season, scoring like he’s shooting a ping pong in the ring. Their young guns have provided energy off the bench and when called upon, with Troy Murphy and Josh McRoberts not really getting the credit they deserve. The Ramon Sessions acquisition may have the same effect on the Lakers as when they got Gasol; he’s a solid point guard playing behind a rookie and soon-to-be superstar in Cleveland, and he’s just what the Lakers needed. Sure, they had to let go of longtime point guard Derek Fisher, but getting a younger, more agile Sessions is not a bad tradeoff.
Nuggets
When discussing bench depth, it is impossible to not have the Nuggets in the discussion. I don’t think even George Karl has a definite starting lineup. Andre Miller or Ty Lawson at point? Aaron Aflalo may be locked as the 2 guard as Rudy Fernandez is injured. Sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari or the athletic two-way player Corey Brewer at 3? Big man with range Al Harrington or “Manimal” Kenneth Faried at 4? Shot blocking machines JaVale McGee and Chris Andersen or bulky Timofey Mozgov and Kosta Koufos at center? Rookies Julyan Stone and Jordan Hamilton have had their burns in playing time and showed potential as well. And imagine if Wilson Chandler was healthy. What makes this Nuggets team difficult to beat is that you can’t guard just one person because they don’t have a definite go to guy. You can’t lock up one player because the 4 others can destroy your team in other ways.
What to watch out for: Depth against stars
Denver is a well-balanced team, while the Lakers, for all the talent they loaded that team up, is still pretty much Kobe’s team. This matchup will feature the team concept against a star-centric Lakers team thanks to Mike Brown. If the games are close, you know that Kobe and his Lakers will have the chance to get the W. But with all the weapons Denver has, it will be difficult for the Lakers to keep games close if they rely heavily on Kobe. Oh yeah, there’s Gasol and Bynum too.
Who to watch out for:
Andrew Bynum has a lot to prove in this series. He’s a piece the Magic desperately want in exchange for Dwight Howard, and the Lakers not giving in to that says a lot at how they see Bynum. While he still is young, they need him to grow up fast because Kobe is not getting any younger. And honestly, I can’t imagine a Lakers team winning without Kobe.
For all the balance I’ve kept raving about Denver, they have a player who has the heart to push them beyond what is expected of them; Andre Miller. He’s playing off the bench behind Ty Lawson, but he can take over games like no one else in that Denver team, and he does it on both ends of the floor. He’s not the face of the franchise, but I daresay that he personifies what that Nuggets team is all about; all heart, and understanding one’s role.
Prediction: Lakers in 7
This series could go either way, and if I turn out to be wrong and Denver upsets the Lakers, I would not be the least bit surprised. I’m giving the edge to the Lakers because of their winning tradition rather than the Nuggets who are still establishing their identity. There’s that possible storyline that the Lakers still aren’t buying into Coach Mike Brown’s system, but it’s difficult to imagine that a Lakers team with this much talent will fall in the first round.
(4) Memphis Grizzlies vs (5) Los Angeles Clippers
(Los Angeles won, 2-1)
Clippers
Lob City had the basketball world buzzing when Chris Paul signed up with the Clippers. People were excited when Baron Davis was throwing lobs to Blake Griffin last year, so imagine the frenzy when they learned that Chris Paul was going to do that this year. They also got Chauncey Billups and Mo Williams, creating a logjam of point guard talent on their bench. It proved to be just what they need, as Chris Paul missed an extended period early in the season due to injury, and Chauncey Billups going out of commission even before the half of the season ended. Randy Foye picked up his game after the all-star break, hitting 3’s like crazy. Late acquisitions Nick Young and Kenyon Martin surely made this team better. DeAndre Jordan had a solid start in the season, but he wasn’t able to keep it up through the season, but seeing how he dominated early, it wouldn’t be surprising for him to find his form.
Grizzlies:
After their magical run last season, people expected the Grizzlies to get better, with Rudy Gay back in the fold. Then just a few weeks into the season, Zach Randolph, arguably their best player last year, suffered a season-depleting injury that saw him sidelined for most of the season. The Grizzlies found ways to win though, with Marc Gasol playing big and earning an All-Star reserve selection, Mike Conley causing havoc on defense, Rudy Gay still making clutch baskets, and Tony Allen being the defensive pest that he is. Early season acquisition Mareese Speights provided some quality relief at the PF spot while Zbo is out. Dante Cunningham was a surprise source of energy off the bench. O.J. Mayo is playing somewhat effectively this season, after spending it in the doghouse last year. Gilbert Arenas was a surprising acquisition for the Grizz, and though he looks more like the Gilbert Arenas of Orlando rather than Agent Zero of the Wizards, he may become an effective player if he embraces his role in this team.
What to watch out for: Spoilers yet again?
Grizzlies pulled off a massive upset last year when they beat the top seeded San Antonio Spurs, who were also the best team in the regular season. This year, they face a crowd-favorite Los Angeles Clippers team who’s making an appearance in the playoffs for the first time since Elton Brand and Sam Cassell led them to a 2-round push. With the exciting tandem of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, people are certainly rooting to see more of those aerial acrobatics that “Lob City” would provide. But the Grizzlies may have other plans. They kept Zbo on the bench since he returned, presumably to get his groove back on, but not push him too much so that he would be fresh and game-fit come playoff time. With O.J. Mayo getting to show his stuff and Gilbert Arenas mellowing down and making his case on the court rather than on blogs, this dangerous spoiler team of last year just got better and even more dangerous. And a late push by the Grizz and the Clips struggling had homecourt advantage swinging the Grizzlies' way, which is going to be huge in this series.
Who to watch out for:
Chris Paul will definitely have the world watching him. After essentially pushing for his trade to come here, he now has to prove that he can indeed elevate this team to being THE team in LA. But don’t sleep on Nick Young. The former Arenas protégé in Washington might want to back up all those praises Arenas had for the young fellow. Randy Foye has that starting 2 spot because of his late brilliance, but Young has a lot of upside considering his length and athleticism.
The Grizzlies had a lot of success with Zbo in the paint last year. This year, they got the 4th seed mostly without Zbo. Much like the argument for Rose’s absence in the Bulls lineup, we are all going to have to wait and see if his return to the lineup is more beneficial to the team more than it hurts them. In this case, I vote that it only helps them greatly. They’ll be 2-deep in all positions and can go toe to toe with the big guys of the Clippers. And don’t forget about Gilbert Arenas. He made a name for himself by creating a mini-rivalry between Washington and Cleveland during the better days of the Eastern conference. If he can channel some of that swag back to his game the Grizz are going to be tough to beat.
Prediction: Memphis in 7
I feel like I will get burned with this prediction but these are two teams that have shown inconsistencies all season long. Even with Chris Paul on his game, the Clippers seem to drop games that should be in their bags already. Memphis, for their part could beat a contender today then lose to a team like Charlotte tomorrow. The Grizzlies look to have a more refined group than the Clippers team that though promising, looks like it still needs to grow more.
