The playoffs are finally less than a week away, and matchups are already set. Everyone will have they say on who’s going past who and I’m going to be one of those friends you have who’s going to throw my opinions out there.
So here goes, from the perspective of an odds and fantasy player for the 2011-2012 NBA season, my picks for the first round matchups of both conferences.
(1) Chicago Bulls vs (8) Philadelphia 76ers
(Chicago won regular season, 2-1)
Bulls:
They are one of the best teams in the NBA this season, winning with or without reigning league MVP Derrick Rose. They have an abundance of talent to make up for the loss of even their best player. They are a title favorite, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to give up an upset.
Sixers:
They had a good stretch during the start of the regular season, which propelled them to the upper half of the East standings. However, as the season progressed, their performance dipped as well, losing games they should be winning. Now they’re down to the 8th spot in the East, and it’s probably their own fault. They still are a dangerous team and can pull off an upset against another team, probably, but not the Bulls.
What to watch out for: The “Bench Mob” vs The “Night Shift”
This is a matchup of 2 bench-heavy teams; the difference being Chicago having a solid starting 5 filled with all-stars Rose, Boozer, Hamilton and almost All-Stars Deng and Noah while the Sixers have Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala (has he ever been an All-Star?), which says a lot when comparing talent depth of both squads. With Rose not being in his best form, look for the Bulls to look to their bench to see how they can best compensate for the lost production from Rose. On the other side, look for Sixers to employ a heavy reliance on their bench more because of adjustments rather than keeping their starters fresh. The way that Sixers team has been playing all year, it doesn’t look like they consider their “starters” to be their best 5 on the floor.
Who to watch out for:
Taj Gibson is going to have a field day in this series. The Sixers don’t have much inside presence, and Gibson might be able to use that to his advantage by posting up or just crashing the boards.
Spencer Hawes is still not 100%, and may not be able to provide the numbers he gave his team at the start of the season, but Nikola Vucevic has played well filling up for him. Lou Williams might make his case to be starting point guard at some of the games as well, if he can pick up the defensive slack to complement his explosive offensive game.
Prediction: Chicago in 5
I think this has a sweep potential, but I won’t go that far. I think the Sixers will win at least one of their home games, catching the Bulls off-guard.
(2) Miami Heat vs (7) New York Knicks
(Miami won regular season, 3-0)
Heat:
They’re on their way to yet another successful season together, with LeBron playing for his 3rd MVP plum, and the team gaining more chemistry as this is their second season together with the three stars. Norris Cole has been a nice surprise for the Heat; the rookie has provided a nice spark off the bench to give more stability at the point guard spot behind Mario Chalmers (like they still actually needed it). They’re still undersized at the center position, with Joel Anthony not given enough minutes because he’s an offensive liability and Udonis Haslem not really the big, bruising center they need.
Knicks:
Fans have forgiven the Knicks for a dismal close to last year’s campaign, thinking this year would be better with Anthony and Stoudemire having training camp together. Then they got Tyson Chandler, which got everyone buzzing as it suddenly transformed them to title contenders. Then the losses. Then Jeremy Lin explodes from nowhere. Then he goes down to injury. Talk about an up and down season for the Knicks. They made a nice push to get in to the playoffs despite their season struggles, and only time will tell if that’s enough to overcome the mighty Heat.
What to watch out for: LeBron vs Melo
As much of a Dwayne Wade fan I am, I think this series is a test for LeBron more than it is for Wade. Wade can close out games, no doubt. But the way that LeBron has been playing has earned him the right to call the Heat “his” team. To complete this process, LeBron needs to own his team by actually closing out. He can take over games to give them a chance to win, but at the end of the game, he doesn’t seem to want to take that last shot. If he can learn how to close out, it will only make the Heat more dangerous as teams would not know how to deny the last possession when they have to guard both LeBron and Wade.
Adversely, Melo has shown time and again that he can close games. However, he can’t seem to always will his team to win, as he tries to do a little too much at times. New York has offensive options that can help Melo out in cutting leads down; streaky JR Smith and sweet-shooting Steve Novak are there, Landry Fields has some shooting range as well, plus the inside presence of Amar’e and Tyson Chandler.
Whoever learns faster, LeBron closing or Melo sharing, could determine the fate of these two teams.
Who to watch out for:
Chris Bosh will be a major factor in this series, if he decides to play the bruising center that they need (a realization he had during the offseason), or he just plays his role effectively. Much of the attention will go to LeBron and Wade, so Bosh needs to prove why there are 3 stars in this team.
Baron Davis is a strong candidate for the most crucial player in the Knicks roster. They have ball hogs in Melo and Amar’e who want to create for themselves, but if there’s a point guard who will be able to take them to the right spots, it would make this team more efficient. Davis could be a ball hog himself, and he does have a strong offensive game, so enhancing his passing game would greatly benefit the Knicks.
Prediction: Miami in 6
New York has the potential for an upset, especially if they wax hot. But I don’t think this is their year just yet. I’m looking at Miami to close out in the Garden, as stars usually bring their A-game there.
(3) Indiana Pacers vs (6) Orlando Magic
(Orlando won regular season, 3-1)
Pacers:
This team is an illustration of what a “streaky” team looks like. Their regular season win-loss record is filled with long win streaks, but had losing streaks as long as those win streaks were. Like all teams, they lost some players due to injuries, but didn’t have significant roster losses to explain their long losing streaks. However, this team still looks good, with Roy Hibbert blossoming into an All-Star, David West regaining his form, Danny Granger still leading the pack, Paul George just having an amazing season, and the backcourt rotation of Darren Collison and George Hill where you can’t go wrong whoever you choose. The late season acquisition of Leandro Barbosa is a brilliant move for the Pacers to infuse an offensive boost in their bench.
Magic:
I’d say this was a potential upset if Dwight Howard would still be able to play for this series. They do have the tools to compete, with Glen Davis filling in nicely for Howard offensively and on the boards, JJ Redick and Jason Richardson shooting nicely at the backcourt, Jameer Nelson picking his game up, and Ryan Anderson having a career year. However, without Dwight, they’re not the same team.
What to watch out for: Pacers Dominance
If there’s a playoff series that I think I can bet my arm on, it would be this matchup. The hustle and energy of the Magic can only get them so far; the Pacers have those hustle and energy guys too in Lou Amundson and Tyler Hansborough.
Who to watch out for:
George Hill is a player that got the coach rethinking his point guard rotation when his initial choice of starting point guard comes back from injury. It’s a good problem to have, really. With his length and defensive prowess, Hill may just showcase how good a player he is and get the nod for a starting spot despite the return of Darren Collison.
Jameer Nelson was selected as an All-Star reserve some years back, but injury prevented him from playing in that game. Without superstar Dwight Howard manning the middle and this team desperately looking for an identity, Nelson has to find his all-star form and lead this team to win.
Prediction: Pacers in 5
I would call sweep, but the Magic look like a gutsy bunch that could pull off at least one win.
(4) Boston Celtics vs (5) Atlanta Hawks
(Boston won regular season, 2-1)
Celtics:
The aging big three look like they still have something left in the tank and at the same time, they have look to have a good young core with them. Despite the loss of Jeff Green for the season due to a heart surgery, they did have nice revelations in their rookies Avery Bradley and Greg Stiemsma. Bradley has given them a lift on both ends of the floor when called on, and Stiemsma has been a shot blocking machine. The return of Marquis Daniels will also help the cause of the Celtics. Brandon Bass has been pretty solid for them but I think it would be more beneficial for him to move to the bench in favor of a center to play alongside Garnett, so that the Big Ticket can play his natural PF position rather than play as a center or for Bass to play undersized.
Hawks:
What started out as a great season for the Hawks went back down to being another mediocre season when Al Horford went down. If Horford does indeed return for the Hawks in the postseason, it will only improve their chances of advancing to the second round. Zaza Pachulia, who has been playing well to fill in for Horford, is also set to return, which will make the team formidable. They already have a strong backcourt with the improved Jeff Teague, the steady Kirk Hinrich, and the sharpshooting Joe Johnson. Marvin Williams has played his role nicely as the wing man, and rookie Ivan Johnson has shown skills and energy on both ends of the floor.
What to watch out for: Tradition against Promise
The Celtics has a winning tradition and a group of guys who understand and live by this tradition. The Hawks have a promising future ahead of them, with current players not even on their prime and already playing well. This will be a close series to call, with the Hawks trying to get over the hump by beating a Celtics team whose core has already won a championship.
Who to watch out for:
For Boston, there won’t be any surprises. Marquis Daniels might provide a spark off the bench, Sasha Pavlovic might have his moments, but for the most part, this is going to be where Paul Pierce will take over. Rajon Rondo’s brilliance have people buzzing over how he may be taking the torch even before the Big 3’s time is over, but I think Paul Pierce will step up to show the basketball world that this is still his time, their time.
Atlanta’s Josh Smith will need to get his head in the game if they want to win. His contributions show up in the stat sheet, but for the most part, he plays erratically and wants the ball when he doesn’t need to have it in his hands. He needs to crash the boards on both ends, and don’t try too much on the offense, because they have good players who can get him the ball on places where he can score.
Prediction: Boston in 7
Not a dig on the talent level of Boston, but more on respecting the Hawks’s ability to match up well against the Celtics. This could be over in 5 games, with the Hawks stealing one in Boston and the Celtics winning the rest of the games, but I’m leaning more on the possibility that this will be a home and home series, with no team giving up their homecourt advantage.
No comments:
Post a Comment