...The 2012 NBA Playoffs: The Second Round...

The East:

(2) Miami Heat vs (3) Indiana Pacers

Background:

Both teams were expected to breeze through their first round opponents, with both their lower seeded opponents suffering from major injuries to important players on their team. However, the gritty Magic pulled off a couple of surprise wins against the Pacers, to make them work to get to where they are now. The Heat, on their part, had to withstand the offensive onslaught of Carmelo Anthony, and dropped a game in New York to give that team its first playoff win in years.

However, they clearly had their opponents overmatched ,and now thay face each other in the second round for what looks to be a fairly matched faceoff.

 
What to watch out for:

The Heat is always a fun team to watch, with highflyers LeBron James and Dwayne Wade manning the wings. They did show vulnerability against a fairly depleted New York Squad, but for the most part, they showed how good their team can be. Chris Bosh needs to show more of what he can do, but for this round, I think Shane Battier and Mike Miller's play will dictate how then Heat can navigate through this Pacers team theough their defense and offense, respectively. While their contributions were enough to close out the mostly one-man show Knicks, it won't be enough to stop the high-powered Pacers team.

 

David West showed he was willing to step it up in big games, and he picked up his pace at just the right time; during their playoff push and still going strong in the first round. Their point guard rotation is to be envied, with George Hill and Darren Collison alternating, and Leandro Barbosa can fill it up from that spot from time to time. Look for Roy Hibbert to make a living down low with no able body to stop him.

 

Roadblocks:

The Pacers are strong at the two spots the Heat are weak: the point and center spot. If the Heat can't make the necessary adjustments, David West and Roy Hibbert will school the Heat big men the same way Collison and Hill will own Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole.

 

Despite the lack of depth from 2 spots, the Heat are still too much to handle when all cylinders are clicking. While Pacers can match them up offensively, they need to rely on their team defense to stop the Heat stars.

 

Prediction: Heat in 6

No disrespect to the Indiana squad, and not just writing as a fan. I think the Pacers reached a stage where they're not ready yet, as it seems like this team was made to make a push next year. They were fortunate enough to not face Dwight Howard in the first round, but this hungry Heat team with everything to prove will be able to grind it out to win this close matchup. And I think they can do it on the road, after Indiana steals a home ga,e from them.

 

(8) Philadelphia 76ers vs (5) Boston Celtics

Background:

The Sixers made the upset of the year when they knocked off the Derrick Rose-less Bulls. While the Bulls were able to get the best record in the East without Rose for most of the year, the postseason is an entirely different story. The Celtics, on their part, knocked off the young Atlanta Hawks team, but not without scares. Al Horford came back to give the Celtics a difficult time disposing of the Hawks, but after missing most ofthe year because of injury, he was not able to pick up his game well enough to beat the Celtics. The C's, on their part, showed just how championship teams are made of.

 

What to watch out for:

The Sixers picked up Elton Brand to bring a legitimate superstar to the city. As talented as Andre Iguodala is, they know that he can't bring the championship to Philadelphia. The Sixers need more from Brand if they hope to continue their Cinderella run. How they stop Rajon Rondo's penetration will also help pick up wins for them.

 

Paul Pierce carried the C's in the clutch, and if Philly did its homework, they will lock him down for this series. Ray Allen needs to catch fire, as he will probably get looks with Pierce getting most of the defensive attention. While Brand is an offensive beast, he's not known to be a defensive pest. If Garnett could keep up his Game 6 performance, the Big Three will be able to make another strong run for a champiomship for the ageing Celtics.

 

Roadblocks:

Age and injuries seem to be the only things stopping these Celtics from making a serious run at a championship. They have bench depth, star power, and clutch performers. When healthy, this is a pretty formidable team. However, with most of their important players at the late stages of their careers, injuries can happen most often than usual.

 

The opposite can be said for Philadelphia, with youth and inexperience their possible pitfalls. They did upset the top seeded Bulls, but it can be argued that they were never really tested during that series. Facing a legit championship contender that is relatively healthy, the Sixers might be overwhelmed this round.

 

Prediction: Celtics in 5

 

Philly might keep this thing close in some games, but with the Celtics knowing their window is closing fast, they won't take their feet off the gas pedal to give the Sixers any hope of beating them.

 

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs (5) Los Angeles Clippers

Background:

The Spurs made quick work of the Jazz with a masterful first round showing. After being upset by Memphis last year, the Spurs have learned their lesson and destroyed the 8th seed like they are supposed to.

 

The Clippers, on their part, was pushed to the limit by the higher-seeded Grizzlies. The main difference would probably be Chris Paul in the clutch. Paul led his team to an amazing 22-pt deficit comeback win and showed just how much he brings to the Clips.

 

It might have been fun to watch the Spurs face the Grizz to avenge their first round loss last year, but seeing Lob City in the second round is in no means a weak consolation to that expected matchup.

 

What to watch out for:

The Spurs showcased their bench depth against the superstar-less Jazz, and they need more of that in the second round, with a Clippers crew led by arguably the best point guard in the league today in Chris Paul. Look for Stephen Jackson and Kawhi Leonard to get more minutes in this series, as they provide perimeter defense to keep Paul in check while letting Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker run wild on offense.

 

The Clippers big men need to step it up a notch,as they will face one of the most formidable and dynamic front court rotations in the NBAwith the Spurs. Tim Duncan can play inside out, Tiago Splitter is picking up his game that the Spurs expected from him when they picked him up, Matt Bonner has range, and Dajuan Blair is an rebounding beast. Blake Griffin should learn how to play defense, or he's going tovget schooled by Duncan. Kenyon Martin is a veteran who thrives when playing with an elite point guard. For this round, I think the Clips need DeAndre Jordan and Reggie Evans doing more for them. These are two able bodies who can defend the post and grab some boards. If they can defend the Spurs big men one on one, I think it would greatly help their cause.

Roadblocks:

The veteran savvy of the Spurs might be too much for the young Clippers to handle. They might have passed a tough test in the Memphis Grizzlies, but it was mostly due to Chris Paul's brilliant play and leadership than the Clippers actually developing playoff poise. They need other players to step up if they wish to advance against the Spurs.

 

Similar to the Celtics, it seems like this Spurs team can only be stopped by injuries to major players. While losing one of their stars may not cause them to lose the series, a couple might be difficult to handle. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are a couple of key players that have lost significant time due to injuries, and if by the unlikely chance that they both lose time during this series, they might find it difficult to adjust.

 

Prediction: Spurs in 5

Chris Paul can only carry this team so far. I think this will be a hardfought series, with the Clippers winning one for their home fans, but mostly not have enough to close games out.

 

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers

Background:

The Thunder swept the defending champions in the first round, and looks like the championship contender they were supposed to be after a strong showing last year. James Harden won the 6th man of the year award, while Kevin Durant once again clinched the scoring title, beating out Kobe Bryant this year. This team is going nowhere but up, and facing the same Lakers squad that had Metta World Peace blatantly elbow Harden in the last week of the regular season, and the same Lakers squad that beat them last year only adds more fire in this interesting matchup.

 

The Lakers had to work for thier spot in the second round after being pushed to the limit  by a deep Denver squad. They got World Peace back for Game 7 and they need him to not knock people out with elbows but rather knock down shots for them to win games.

 

What to watch out for:

While it would be amazing to watch the Lakers and the Clippers battle it out for West supremecy and Los Angeles love, both teams have an uphill battle ahead of them, facing teams of championship caliber as well. The Lakers face vengeful Oklahoma team they narrowly beat a couple of years ago, and now has what it lacked before (big men Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins) plus a third scoring option (James Harden) and a veteran with smarts and knows the enemy (Derek Fisher). If the Lakers hope to advance, they need to focus on defense rather than try to outscore the Thunder, because frankly, they can't run with the Thunder squad with that much firepower.

For the Thunder, James Harden should flourish, with defenses attracting Russel Westbrook  and Kevin Durant, while the big men would be occupied with the space taken up by Ibaka and Perkins. That Metta World Peace elbow? It only adds fuel to the already lit up fire. 

Roadblocks:

The experience factor is no longer an advantage for the Lakers. Despite the talent and depth this team has, the main difference of this team from the team that beat the Thunder was the Zen Master himself, Phil Jackson. The loss of Lamar Odom also hurt their team a lot, but it should have been compensated if MWP and Matt Barnes played up to par. They will not be able to run wild offensively against this much improved Thunder team, and they will get burned trying to outscore the Thunder and failing miserably at it. 

The Thunder is gaining swag, but that's not an entirely bad thing. It could be if they let it go to their heads, but looking at Durant, it doesn't look like it will. Overconfidence could burn them in this series, but its not too much of a roadblock. They have the tools to contain Kobe Bryant, but if Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum decide to show up, the Thunder will have problems.

Prediction: Thunder in 5

The Thunder have grown up right before our very eyes, and have the same drive as the older teams vying for a championship, which is scary when you think about it. While the Spurs and Celtics are pushing for one last trophy, this Thunder team still has a lot of ceiling left and they are already contenders. They have a bright future ahead of them, and destroying the Lakers would be a major step forward for this team. Not a dig on the Lakers, but the three key factors that are working against them are: 1. Mike Brown is no Phil Jackson, 2. Derek Fisher may not get enough minutes on the floor, but he's most needed on the bench and on practice, and 3. Kobe Bryant will not fall down without fighting and it will make or break this team, and it probably would break them, most likely.

...The 2012 NBA Playoffs: The East...

The playoffs are finally less than a week away, and matchups are already set. Everyone will have they say on who’s going past who and I’m going to be one of those friends you have who’s going to throw my opinions out there.

So here goes, from the perspective of an odds and fantasy player for the 2011-2012 NBA season, my picks for the first round matchups of both conferences.

(1) Chicago Bulls vs (8) Philadelphia 76ers
(Chicago won regular season, 2-1)

Bulls:

They are one of the best teams in the NBA this season, winning with or without reigning league MVP Derrick Rose. They have an abundance of talent to make up for the loss of even their best player. They are a title favorite, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to give up an upset.

Sixers:

They had a good stretch during the start of the regular season, which propelled them to the upper half of the East standings. However, as the season progressed, their performance dipped as well, losing games they should be winning. Now they’re down to the 8^th spot in the East, and it’s probably their own fault. They still are a dangerous team and can pull off an upset against another team, probably, but not the Bulls.

What to watch out for: The “Bench Mob” vs The “Night Shift”

This is a matchup of 2 bench-heavy teams; the difference being Chicago having a solid starting 5 filled with all-stars Rose, Boozer, Hamilton and almost All-Stars Deng and Noah while the Sixers have Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala (has he ever been an All-Star?), which says a lot when comparing talent depth of both squads. With Rose not being in his best form, look for the Bulls to look to their bench to see how they can best compensate for the lost production from Rose. On the other side, look for Sixers to employ a heavy reliance on their bench more because of adjustments rather than keeping their starters fresh. The way that Sixers team has been playing all year, it doesn’t look like they consider their “starters” to be their best 5 on the floor.

Who to watch out for:

Taj Gibson is going to have a field day in this series. The Sixers don’t have much inside presence, and Gibson might be able to use that to his advantage by posting up or just crashing the boards.

Spencer Hawes is still not 100%, and may not be able to provide the numbers he gave his team at the start of the season, but Nikola Vucevic has played well filling up for him. Lou Williams might make his case to be starting point guard at some of the games as well, if he can pick up the defensive slack to complement his explosive offensive game.

Prediction: Chicago in 5

I think this has a sweep potential, but I won’t go that far. I think the Sixers will win at least one of their home games, catching the Bulls off-guard.

(2) Miami Heat vs (7) New York Knicks
(Miami won regular season, 3-0)

Heat:

They’re on their way to yet another successful season together, with LeBron playing for his 3^rd MVP plum, and the team gaining more chemistry as this is their second season together with the three stars. Norris Cole has been a nice surprise for the Heat; the rookie has provided a nice spark off the bench to give more stability at the point guard spot behind Mario Chalmers (like they still actually needed it). They’re still undersized at the center position, with Joel Anthony not given enough minutes because he’s an offensive liability and Udonis Haslem not really the big, bruising center they need.

Knicks:

Fans have forgiven the Knicks for a dismal close to last year’s campaign, thinking this year would be better with Anthony and Stoudemire having training camp together. Then they got Tyson Chandler, which got everyone buzzing as it suddenly transformed them to title contenders. Then the losses. Then Jeremy Lin explodes from nowhere. Then he goes down to injury. Talk about an up and down season for the Knicks. They made a nice push to get in to the playoffs despite their season struggles, and only time will tell if that’s enough to overcome the mighty Heat.

What to watch out for: LeBron vs Melo

As much of a Dwayne Wade fan I am, I think this series is a test for LeBron more than it is for Wade. Wade can close out games, no doubt. But the way that LeBron has been playing has earned him the right to call the Heat “his” team. To complete this process, LeBron needs to own his team by actually closing out. He can take over games to give them a chance to win, but at the end of the game, he doesn’t seem to want to take that last shot. If he can learn how to close out, it will only make the Heat more dangerous as teams would not know how to deny the last possession when they have to guard both LeBron and Wade.

Adversely, Melo has shown time and again that he can close games. However, he can’t seem to always will his team to win, as he tries to do a little too much at times. New York has offensive options that can help Melo out in cutting leads down; streaky JR Smith and sweet-shooting Steve Novak are there, Landry Fields has some shooting range as well, plus the inside presence of Amar’e and Tyson Chandler.

Whoever learns faster, LeBron closing or Melo sharing, could determine the fate of these two teams.

Who to watch out for:

Chris Bosh will be a major factor in this series, if he decides to play the bruising center that they need (a realization he had during the offseason), or he just plays his role effectively. Much of the attention will go to LeBron and Wade, so Bosh needs to prove why there are 3 stars in this team.

Baron Davis is a strong candidate for the most crucial player in the Knicks roster. They have ball hogs in Melo and Amar’e who want to create for themselves, but if there’s a point guard who will be able to take them to the right spots, it would make this team more efficient. Davis could be a ball hog himself, and he does have a strong offensive game, so enhancing his passing game would greatly benefit the Knicks. 

Prediction: Miami in 6

New York has the potential for an upset, especially if they wax hot. But I don’t think this is their year just yet. I’m looking at Miami to close out in the Garden, as stars usually bring their A-game there.

(3) Indiana Pacers vs (6) Orlando Magic
(Orlando won regular season, 3-1)

Pacers:

This team is an illustration of what a “streaky” team looks like. Their regular season win-loss record is filled with long win streaks, but had losing streaks as long as those win streaks were. Like all teams, they lost some players due to injuries, but didn’t have significant roster losses to explain their long losing streaks. However, this team still looks good, with Roy Hibbert blossoming into an All-Star, David West regaining his form, Danny Granger still leading the pack, Paul George just having an amazing season, and the backcourt rotation of Darren Collison and George Hill where you can’t go wrong whoever you choose. The late season acquisition of Leandro Barbosa is a brilliant move for the Pacers to infuse an offensive boost in their bench.

Magic:

I’d say this was a potential upset if Dwight Howard would still be able to play for this series. They do have the tools to compete, with Glen Davis filling in nicely for Howard offensively and on the boards, JJ Redick and Jason Richardson shooting nicely at the backcourt, Jameer Nelson picking his game up, and Ryan Anderson having a career year. However, without Dwight, they’re not the same team.

What to watch out for: Pacers Dominance

If there’s a playoff series that I think I can bet my arm on, it would be this matchup. The hustle and energy of the Magic can only get them so far; the Pacers have those hustle and energy guys too in Lou Amundson and Tyler Hansborough.

Who to watch out for:

George Hill is a player that got the coach rethinking his point guard rotation when his initial choice of starting point guard comes back from injury. It’s a good problem to have, really. With his length and defensive prowess, Hill may just showcase how good a player he is and get the nod for a starting spot despite the return of Darren Collison.

Jameer Nelson was selected as an All-Star reserve some years back, but injury prevented him from playing in that game. Without superstar Dwight Howard manning the middle and this team desperately looking for an identity, Nelson has to find his all-star form and lead this team to win.

Prediction: Pacers in 5

I would call sweep, but the Magic look like a gutsy bunch that could pull off at least one win.

(4) Boston Celtics vs (5) Atlanta Hawks 
(Boston won regular season, 2-1)

Celtics:

The aging big three look like they still have something left in the tank and at the same time, they have look to have a good young core with them. Despite the loss of Jeff Green for the season due to a heart surgery, they did have nice revelations in their rookies Avery Bradley and Greg Stiemsma. Bradley has given them a lift on both ends of the floor when called on, and Stiemsma has been a shot blocking machine. The return of Marquis Daniels will also help the cause of the Celtics. Brandon Bass has been pretty solid for them but I think it would be more beneficial for him to move to the bench in favor of a center to play alongside Garnett, so that the Big Ticket can play his natural PF position rather than play as a center or for Bass to play undersized.

Hawks:

What started out as a great season for the Hawks went back down to being another mediocre season when Al Horford went down. If Horford does indeed return for the Hawks in the postseason, it will only improve their chances of advancing to the second round. Zaza Pachulia, who has been playing well to fill in for Horford, is also set to return, which will make the team formidable. They already have a strong backcourt with the improved Jeff Teague, the steady Kirk Hinrich, and the sharpshooting Joe Johnson. Marvin Williams has played his role nicely as the wing man, and rookie Ivan Johnson has shown skills and energy on both ends of the floor.

What to watch out for: Tradition against Promise

The Celtics has a winning tradition and a group of guys who understand and live by this tradition. The Hawks have a promising future ahead of them, with current players not even on their prime and already playing well. This will be a close series to call, with the Hawks trying to get over the hump by beating a Celtics team whose core has already won a championship.

Who to watch out for:

For Boston, there won’t be any surprises. Marquis Daniels might provide a spark off the bench, Sasha Pavlovic might have his moments, but for the most part, this is going to be where Paul Pierce will take over. Rajon Rondo’s brilliance have people buzzing over how he may be taking the torch even before the Big 3’s time is over, but I think Paul Pierce will step up to show the basketball world that this is still his time, their time.

Atlanta’s Josh Smith will need to get his head in the game if they want to win. His contributions show up in the stat sheet, but for the most part, he plays erratically and wants the ball when he doesn’t need to have it in his hands. He needs to crash the boards on both ends, and don’t try too much on the offense, because they have good players who can get him the ball on places where he can score.

Prediction: Boston in 7

Not a dig on the talent level of Boston, but more on respecting the Hawks’s ability to match up well against the Celtics. This could be over in 5 games, with the Hawks stealing one in Boston and the Celtics winning the rest of the games, but I’m leaning more on the possibility that this will be a home and home series, with no team giving up their homecourt advantage.