East Picture:
(1) Cleveland vs (8) Chicago
Chicago's match-up with Boston last year was epic. This season, they clinched the 8th spot only with the last game of the season. I like that team, but they pretty much underachieve after every season. They show flashes of brilliance by the end of their seasons, acquire talent in the offseason, then fail miserably, acquire sparks at trade deadlines, then make a push, only to fall short in the playoffs. This matchup is an easy call, but not to say that Cleveland won't get a scare.
Winner: Cleveland in 4
Watch Out for: Antawn Jamison gelling for Cleveland. If that works fast, this team is scary good.
(2) Orlando vs (7) Charlotte
My dark horse for the season is Charlotte. To some extent, I think Jordan's acquisition of the franchise re-energized them. Stephen Jackson may not be "superstar" material, and Gerald Wallace is no LeBron, but then again, they're coached by Larry Brown, who steered the "superstar-less" Detroit Pistons to a title. But I think the hunger is going to win this series. Charlotte got their first playoff berth in franchise history, so that's an achievement for them this season. Orlando still has a chip on their shoulder, falling short last year, and proving nothing by reaching the playoffs.
Winner: Orlando in 6
Watch Out for: Falling 3's everywhere. Charlotte won't give much lay ups, and Orlando is going to make them pay for that. JJ Reddick is emerging as the shooter that he was expected to be.
(3) Atlanta vs (6) Milwaukee
There were doubts with Brandon Jennings when he chose to play in Europe rather than go to college. There were times in the season when he looked raw, then he scored 55, then became ordinary. Now, he's an integral part of the rotation, and has handled the point pretty well. However, without Andrew Bogut, "Fear the Dear" isn't such an accurate slogan for them. Atlanta's going to devour them.
Winner: Atlanta in 5
Watch Out for: Jamaal Crawford's first playoff appearance. He could be jittery, but hey, that's why Joe's there, to be the main guy. Jamaal can focus on being the spark off the bench.
(4) Boston vs (5) Miami
When Boston revamped their roster to get Garnett and Ray Allen, they did so with the idea that they were building a dynasty. Just a couple of years removed from their championship, they don't look as invincible as they were when the Big Three was first formed. It's not just Garnett's injury woes, nor is it just their age, I think it's more on the glue that makes them stick together. Only there do you see the value of a PJ Brown and a James Posey. Dwayne Wade has been going crazy leading his team, since going 35-34, they made a 12-1 push to end the season. Sure, they had an easy schedule, and that one loss came from a struggling Detroit team that lost 13 straight prior to that win, but hey, in the NBA, every team is as dangerous as any other. It could work both ways for the heat: either they're too tired or they got their groove on and got used to winning.
Winner: Miami in 6 (oh yes, fanboy in me says that.)
Watch Out for: The Truth vs Flash is the matchup to see, of course, but what would dictate the winner here will probably fall more on no.2 pick Micheal Beasley, who seemed like a dud compared to Derrick Rose's emergence in Chicago.
West Picture:
(1) LA Lakers vs (8) Oklahoma
I like Oklahoma. They even had a chance to gain homecourt advantage in the first round, at least, but fell short. Durant has been a monster, and Russel Westbrook is looking like a Jason Kidd lite, getting triple doubles almost at will for a stretch of games. But LA is LA, and Kobe is still Kobe. Oklahoma has been the surprise team of the season, and with their talent (and LA's depleting point guard depth), they probably might go on surprising people. If LA doesn't get its act together, this is going to be an upset.
Winner: LA in 7
Watch Out for: No, not Andrew Bynum. Most people say that Andrew Bynum will be the X-factor for LA winning it all, but I think it will be more on the two other forwards, Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol. These guys were franchise players before coming to LA (Odom for Miami, Gasol for Memphis). They carried their teams to win, and now take a backseat to the Lakers alpha-male in Kobe. Now that Kobe's production has dipped since his finger injury, these two have got to step up if they want to win it all.
(2) Dallas vs (7) San Antonio
A Texas showdown. San Antonio has been a powerhouse for the longest time that it seemed weird that they almost didn't make the playoffs. Hats off to Pop for dealing with the injuries that he's had to deal with and still make the playoffs. But watching the Spurs, it has been a Manu Ginobili show. The guy's playing like it was 2004. And now that Tony Parker's back, they've got bench depth again. But Dallas didn't retool for nothing. They don't have a player on their roster who isn't capable of scoring 20, and with Jason Kidd quarterbacking the team, it's possible.
Winner: Dallas in 6
Watch Out for: Brendan Haywood. San Antonio will bully much of the inside, with Dajuan Blair and Tim Duncan, and Eric Dampier doesn't stand a chance manning up to those two, but deadline-acquisition Haywood probably can. He gives Dallas that dimension in their team that "EricA" was expected to, but never really provided.
(3) Phoenix vs (6) Portland
Steve Nash is playing better than his 2 MVP seasons, and Amar'e has just been a monster. Portland was plagued by injuries all season long, and just when things were looking great, Brandon Roy gets injured. It's sad, really, that Portland had to deal with everything they had to deal with. Funny how Phoenix is a desert, but apparently, the fountain of youth is there.
Winner: Phoenix in 5
Watch Out for: Nicolas Batum. He's got the skills, and he's got to step up for Portland. For Phoenix, I think Robin Lopez will be a big factor in their success.
(4) Denver vs (5) Utah
George Karl is doubtful to re-join the team for the first round. Adrian Dantley has done a solid job keeping the ship afloat, but I think not having Coach Karl on the sidelines hurts Denver's chances. Utah, on the other hand, was one of the hottest team after the All Star break. Boozer is doing an Amar'e, playing like a monster on a contract year.
Winner: Denver in 7
Watch Out for: This is probably the closest series in all, as it could easily go either way. Utah has bench depth that will bring them to the second round if they were matched up with, say, Portland, probably, or any among the top 5-8 teams in the East. But still, you can't count Carmelo Anthony out. And now that their team is relatively complete (I don't know who else is injured, but Kenyon's back), they're going to be a force inside (Nene, K-Mart, Birdman), and will have to force Utah to the perimeter. Problem is, Utah IS a perimeter-shooting team. So, I say Denver, just because of Melo, but Utah could provide an upset. Look for Deron Williams to be the superstar, and Chauncy's steady leadership in Denver to keep his team's head in the game.
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