*I was 2 series off in the first round, relying too much on Spurs' experience (though in analysis, had the Grizz actually capable of an upset), and hating the Celtics too much to hope that Knicks could have a chance against them.
Chicago was somewhat pushed to the limit by a nothing-to-lose Indiana Pacers team. They played their hearts out and almost pulled an upset over the top-seeded Bulls. Derrick Rose anchored the Bulls series win with amazing performances in every game. Pacers limited the Chicago bigs, especially Carlos Boozer, who was expected to anchor the Bulls offense inside. As expected, Pacers gave them a fight which they ultimately won. The series did nothing more than solidify Rose's case for MVP.
As mentioned in my West prediction blog, the Grizz are a dangerous team more than capable of pulling off an upset over the Spurs. I did not think that they'd do it this year, but Manu Ginobili playing hurt throughout the series may have affected the play of the Spurs, not to mention the ever-efficient Tim Duncan getting dominated by Zach Randolph. Tony Allen has been huge for the Grizz, more for his intangibles than anything; championship experience, defense, energy, and pure love for the game and constant desire to improve. Marc Gasol has been big for the Grizz in the series, literally and figuratively. He has been the better Gasol in the postseason so far.
The East
(1) Chicago Bulls vs (5) Atlanta Hawks
How they got here:
Chicago was somewhat pushed to the limit by a nothing-to-lose Indiana Pacers team. They played their hearts out and almost pulled an upset over the top-seeded Bulls. Derrick Rose anchored the Bulls series win with amazing performances in every game. Pacers limited the Chicago bigs, especially Carlos Boozer, who was expected to anchor the Bulls offense inside. As expected, Pacers gave them a fight which they ultimately won. The series did nothing more than solidify Rose's case for MVP.
The Hawks pulled off the expected upset of the slightly-favored Orlando Magic. It may be argued that they won on 2 bad shots, one that went in (Jamaal Crawford's far 3 pointer in the closing moments of Game 4), and one that didn't (Hedo Turkgolu's forced 3-pointer as time expired in Game 5, despite an open, unbelievably hot Gilbert Arenas waiting for the pass). But a win is a win, and they bested one of the favored teams in the East.
Prediction: Bulls in 7
As mentioned in my first round prediction, I believe that the Hawks are strong as a team. But the playoffs is about match ups. They got through the Orlando series because they match up well against them, and since the offensive playbook of the Magic revolves around Dwight Howard, it was fairly easy for them to advance because they had nice bigs to go against him one on one, making it difficult for the Magic to create other scoring opportunities (the idea behind the Magic offense is to pull everything to a monster force down low, so that the opposing team would double on him, and he'll find the open shooter). Now this is a pretty interesting match up, really.
Against Chicago, the Hawks' biggest piece is Kirk Hinrich. He was the face of the Chicago franchise before Rose came in and was essentially handed the keys to the team. It's not that Captain Kirk wasn't needed in the Bulls lineup anymore; he was a necessary sacrifice to pull off a transition to the Rose era. He's still an able defender, and having played with Rose for a full year last year, would have a pretty good idea how to defend his successor.
The Bulls' supposed advantage down low is the agile big men they have in Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. However, that can easily be offset by moving Al Horford back to the Center position to match up with Noah, and move Josh Smith back to the 4 spot to go up against Boozer.
Despite these match ups, I peg Chicago to win because of two things: Luol Deng and clutch situations. With everybody busy drooling over every play Derrick Rose makes, Deng will do the dirty stuff like clearing the boards and other intangibles like off-ball defense and stuff. Joe Johnson will have to work for his shots because they might slide Deng over to him if another able defender in Keith Bogans is on the bench. As for clutch, Atlanta relies heavily on sheer dumb luck rather than skill. Most of their close games were won because of a lapse on the part of the opposing team or a bad shot that just miraculously fell through. Their best clutch player would be Joe Johnson, and he will be defended well. Chicago has Rose who will create on an isolation, and once he gets that first step on his first defender, it doesn't matter if there were 5 guys who goes up against him.
Prediction goes otherwise if:
Derrick Rose's ankle injury gets worse. The Bullls go as far as D-Rose takes them, despite the abundance of talent in that lineup.
*AFTER REVIEW FROM HAWKS.COM: After MRI on his ankle, it was revealed that Kirk Hinrich suffered a significant injury that could keep him out of the Chicago series. This is a huge blow that could drive Chicago to sweep or drop just one game.
(2)Miami Heat vs (3) Boston Celtics
How they got here:
Miami had a fairly easy time against Philadelphia, but they did not leave that series unchallenged. Philly gave a good fight, but the three superstars responded well to the challenge. It was great for them to lose a game to the over-performing/well-coached Sixers, because it eliminates the illusion of invincibility in the team. They saw what happens when LeBron has the ball in close, end game situations, and when they put the ball in Wade's hands. What they do with what they know is up to them, but will probably dictate the series.
The defending East champs swept the Knicks, but that doesn't mean they didn't get a scare. The series came down to who had more big time players. Rondo played like it was the first half of the season again, and KG came up clutch in Game 2, which was a big blow to the morale of the Knicks. To some extent, they might have had the luck of the draw when Amar'e got injured, but that is no excuse. The C's is a good team that is a legit contender for the NBA Title. I daresay that whoever comes out of this series will win the East, no matter who comes out of the other East series. This is a true test of fire for both teams predicted to be on top of the East during the preseason.
Prediction: Miami in 7
This is a series that could go either way, no matter how Celtics fans insist that this is going to be easy for them. The biggest thing Miami has now that they never had against a favored opponent is home court advantage. This year, they start at home, coming off a win to close out the Philadelphia series. They still have momentum in the building, while the C's have rested a bit. I expect this series to be a home and home series, with no team stealing one on the road. They have genuine hate for each other, with trash thrown each other's ways directly, indirectly, in-game, and off-the court.
The season series showed how Celtics can dominate the Miami Superfriends, but if it's any indication, Miami won the final encounter between the two teams. Have they figured out how to beat the Celtics? Or was it a lucky break? For certain, the Celtics couldn't have tanked that matchup, since they were both in the running for the top or second spot in the east then, and they would probably choose to lose against the Wizards or something rather than lose to Miami.
This series can't be dissected into match ups, because this is about pride for both teams more than anything else. Well, probably second to LeBron's diva-esque need to "take revenge" on the Celtics for beating him twice as a member of the Cavaliers in the past 3 years. Checking out the match ups though; the Center position is not too much of a factor since Perk was traded away. Essentially, it is the weak spot for the Heat, but Joel Anthony has gone unnoticed throughout the season, but is actually an underrated player. He plays the role that Perk once did for the C's when they had their championship run; with all the attention on the Big Three, Perk was essentially the anchor in the middle that enabled KG to extend his range. For Anthony, he has improved his offensive awareness and has greater confidence now, understanding that he has to contribute in order for his team to win. Early on in the season, he will pump fake or hesitate if he gets the ball inside. Now, he just goes up strong. For the C's, they are still hoping for Shaq to come back to play for them, but they have a plethora of big men to fill up space in the middle. Not as good as Perk, but enough to offset Anthony.
The PF spot is a no contest, with KG dominating that spot. Bosh was never known to be a tenacious defender, but he can most certainly try. They essentially play the same role on offense; stretch the D with range, and mix in some post up moves occasionally. On defense, though, KG could eat Bosh on both ends.
The 3 spot is a marquee match up against the Diva, er.. "King" and The Truth. It's always a joy to watch both players going at it, with Pierce's range and clutch shooting offsetting James' "talent" and athleticism.
The battle at the two spot features two players who can beat the other's team in their own ways; Allen can shoot the lights out on the other team while Wade can dissect the defense to create for himself.
At the point, Rondo's superior ability to orchestrate the Boston offense can be a huge problem for the Heat. They have Mario Chalmers who can try to stop him, but not much anyone else. Mike Bibby and Eddie House are essentially the same players; shooters, but defends like a high school girl. The difference would probably be the confidence that Chalmers carries over from their last win against Philadelphia; he was fed with the ball and was asked to shoot. With guys like LeBron and Wade egging you to shoot, and giving you that much confidence in a closeout game, how can you not trust yourself?
Prediction goes otherwise if:
The bench players of Boston produce as they're expected to. Clearly, talent-wise, Boston is stacked while Miami is so-so because they spent their cash on bringing in "talents" for their team. They do have Mike Miller and possibly Udonis Haslem, but how much can that match up against a more confident Jeff Green and an energized Glen Davis?
The West
(4)Oklahoma City Thunder vs (8)Memphis Grizzlies
How they got here:
Oklahoma got the better of a well-coached team in Denver, crushing Denver's hopes of becoming the second team since the 03/04 (I forgot which) Detroit team that went all the way to the finals despite not having a legit star. But people expected much from OKC since pushing the Lakers to 7 games last season, and Kevin Durant nearly winning the MVP title last year. This year, Westbrook's improvement "dimmed" Durant's chance to challenge for the MVP title. They combined masterfully to conquer the scrappy Denver team, and despite the 4-1 series win, they didn't go through it unchallenged.
As mentioned in my West prediction blog, the Grizz are a dangerous team more than capable of pulling off an upset over the Spurs. I did not think that they'd do it this year, but Manu Ginobili playing hurt throughout the series may have affected the play of the Spurs, not to mention the ever-efficient Tim Duncan getting dominated by Zach Randolph. Tony Allen has been huge for the Grizz, more for his intangibles than anything; championship experience, defense, energy, and pure love for the game and constant desire to improve. Marc Gasol has been big for the Grizz in the series, literally and figuratively. He has been the better Gasol in the postseason so far.
Prediction: Oklahoma in 6
The Thunder was a Pau Gasol tip in away from preventing the Lakers from a 3-peat. This year, they have a dramatically improved team; Westbrook has been phenomenal, and Kendrick Perkins has changed their defensive make-up, allowing Serge I-blocka to slide down to the 4 to provide outstanding interior defense that they didn't have last year. As I mentioned, the post season is all about match ups, and this one just doesn't happen to favor the Grizz too much, especially considering their first round performance.
The Grizz relied heavily on their leader, Zach Randolph throughout the season and against the Spurs. Marc Gasol performed excellent as well against the San Antonio bigs. The difference now is that they have Perkins and Ibaka manning the middle for the Thunder, rendering Gasol's post up moves, and pretty much every Grizzly drive to the hole, a low-percentage shot. On offense, Z-bo can probably stretch Ibaka out to the perimeter, but can't do the same for Perk. Z-bo and Gasol are going to be beaten up with Ibaka and Perk pounding their chests in the middle.
The Grizz have two defensive specialists in their lineup as well; Tony Allen and Shane Battier to cover Kevin Durant and Russel Westbrook's offense, which is good news. The bad news for them; the Thunder still has James Harden, who will be left unguarded in their offense should Allen slide down to defend Westbrook. Mike Conley is an able playmaker, but won't do much for defense, either on Westbrook or on Harden.
I maintain that Z-bo's 3 pointer in game 3 in the closing minutes of the game was the difference in the San Antonio series. It generally destroyed the morale of the team in that game, and the negative psyche of being down 3-1 didn't help the young core of players I expected to help the Spurs in this series. Had Z-bo missed that shot, this series would've easily gone 2-2, with the Spurs closing out at home in 7. That said, the Thunder have two closers/clutch players in Westbrook and Durant, while the Grizz will be a bit predictable; turning to Z-bo in the clutch.
Prediction goes otherwise if:
Harden fails to show up for the Thunder. With Westbrook and Durant clearly being marked men, the Thunder will have to rely on other players to pick up the slack and give Memphis all that it could handle.
(2)Los Angeles Lakers vs (3) Dallas Mavericks
How they got here:
The defending champs met a bit of a roadblock in New Orleans, when the latter stunned them at home in game 1 of their series, which was expected to be swept by the Lakers after the Hornets' leading scorer, David West, went down at the end of the season. Chris Paul was sensational in the series, and it took a Kobe Bryant dunk to wake the boys in Purple and Gold. They Lakers eventually took care of business, but not without showing chinks in their armor.
The Mavericks have always been criticized for their defense, and as I recognized (won't so much as claim that I had the original idea, since I did read from several authors), their team make up changed when they picked up Tyson Chandler in the offseason. The series could have easily gone either way, but ultimately, the Mavs prevailed thanks to the ever-reliable Diggler. It's not the lack of talent that doomed the Blazers, nor is it the lack of will (see Brandon Roy's performance in game 4). I daresay that it is the dramatic improvement of the Mavericks, finally claiming to have a "D" in Dallas.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
Despite the improved team, the Mavericks won't be able to overcome the Lakers. I honestly want to give the Mavs their home wins, but I think, with the swagger that the Lakers are carrying now, they would make a statement and close out on game 6 in Dallas. The Mavs are too hyped up and too good to be swept in this round. And yes, I would bet on that.
The Lakers have Matt Barnes back and Ron Artest flexing his muscles again, not to mention Steve Blake back to provide stability in the back court. This cast of supporting players can shut down a wide array of Dallas weapons, from the starting lineup to the bench. And we haven't talked about the huge Laker frontcourt in Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom.
The huge advantage Dallas had over the Blazers was clutch play. Brandon Roy wasn't the same player he was before he got injured. Now, Dirk's clutch play will be offset by arguably the best closer in the game; the Black Mamba, Kobe Bryant.
Shawn Marion has been pretty much the most consistent player in the Mavs lineup since the start of the season, but he's not the same Matrix as he was some years back in Phoenix. He can still defend and give the intangibles on the court, but with the stack of talent in LA, you can't just stop Kobe and expect the whole team to collapse.
Pau Gasol has been criticized throughout their series with the Hornets, considering he didn't have to defend a David West. However, he didn't dominate the paint as he was expected to, prompting critics to burn Pau by saying the better Gasol is in Memphis right now. If Marion can successfully defend Kobe, Gasol's effectiveness will play a huge part in the Lakers' success.
Prediction goes otherwise if:
Kobe Bryant's ankle injury is legit. It's one thing to miss Kobe for a few minutes, but it's another to miss him all throughout. Other than that, there aren't too many scenarios where Lakers will lose this round. It's not to underestimate the Mavs, I understand how good a team they are, but the Lakers are just too much for the Mavs to handle. The season-ending injury to Caron Butler may have doomed their chances for a deep playoff run even before the playoffs began.
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I'm going for games going 6-7 games deep not to play safe, but more because these games are just too close to call (except the Bulls series if Hinrich is out of commission). These are the best of the NBA, and it would be interesting to see the winners of the Miami-Boston series and the Dallas-LA series, as they would come out better teams after being tested by such quality teams.
