(1) San Antonio Spurs vs (8) Memphis Grizzlies
Roster:
SAN ANTONIO MEMPHIS
G Tony Parker PG Mike Conley
G Manu Ginobili SG Xavier Henry
F Richard Jefferson SF Sam Young
PF Tim Duncan PF Zach Randolph
C Antonio McDyess C Marc Gasol
The Bench
G Gary Neal G O.J. Mayo
G George Hill G Greivis Vasquez
F/C Matt Bonner F Darell Arthur
F/C DaJuan Blair F Shane Battier
C Tiago Splitter F Leon Powe
F Steve Novak G Ish Smith
G Chris Quinn G/F Tony Allen
G/F Danny Green C Hamed Haddadi
G James Anderson G Jason Williams
F Da’Sean Butler
Key Players: Tim Duncan, Zach Randolph
Watch out for: Youth vs Experience
Season series: Series split 2-2
How the roster stacks up:
The Spurs is probably only second to The Celtics of last year when it comes to being counted out early in the playoffs despite having a stacked lineup. The Celtics proved naysayers wrong last season, and the Spurs surprised many this season. Who would have thought that they could still post the best record in the NBA despite an “aging” lineup? Much credit must be given to the commitment that Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker gave to the Spurs organization, by choosing not to play in international tournaments last summer. Tim Duncan isn’t posting MVP numbers, but has been as reliable as ever. Gary Neal is a rookie by contract, but plays as well as any veteran. George Hill has earned the respect of Greg Poppovic, and is looking like the future of the Spurs. Tiago Splitter is a big guy they want to build around on, and he has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season (when healthy). DaJuan Blair makes a triumvirate of young stars the spurs can build on, with Hill and Splitter. Their frontcourt is stacked with other options, with Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner providing different looks for their team at the 5. Steve Novak is a solid contributing player, and will know how to pick his spots.
For the first time in a long while, the Grizzlies have come back to the postseason. Sure, they haven’t won any games during the playoffs, but don’t tell that to these guys. They are more than capable of pulling off an upset over the well-seasoned Spurs. Zach Randolph has had a solid season for the team, and a surprising leader, considering his issues in the past. Marc Gasol has been good enough to at least show Pop that the swap for him and brother Pau wasn’t as lopsided as he thought. The Grizz has a stacked backcourt, with Mike Conley, Xavier Henry, Tony Allen, Greivis Vasquez and Ish Smith. Their wing players are also not that bad, with Shane Battier and Sam Young giving them a couple of dimensions at that spot. The frontcourt is deep, with Leon Powe, Darrell Arthur and even Hamed Haddadi being able to spell for their starters. And no, I did not forget about O.J. Mayo; he gets a special mention because he hasn’t been contributing as much as expected this season. Not his choice, really, but rather because he hasn’t won the favor of Coach Lionel Hollins. There have been attitude issues here and there, but if the Grizz can win these much games without much help from Mayo, imagine how good this team could be if Mayo can get his rookie form back.
Prediction: Spurs win, 4-2
The Memphis Grizzlies are due for a win in the playoffs, and they’d probably win a couple of games at home, but this probably isn’t the year that they’d advance. Not taking away anything from the Grizz, as I said, they are a dangerous team capable of pulling off an upset. But the Spurs, much like the Celtics of last year, are made for the playoffs. There was a year when they looked vulnerable and got edged by the Mavericks, but this is a different Spurs team with a different identity. When before they were anchored on an aging and battered core of Duncan, Ginobili and Parker, right now, they have their future intertwining with their glory-days lineup; Ginobili and Parker playing way beyond expectations this year and Duncan playing his usual consistent self have the core of George Hill, DaJuan Blair, and Tiago Splitter ready and able to already fill the Spurs 3’s shoes, but not just yet. The Grizz, while solid, will have a successful season this year having made the playoffs, but they just have to wait for their turn at advancing to the next round.
(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs (7) New Orleans Hornets
Roster:
LOS ANGELES NEW ORLEANS
PG Derek Fisher PG Chris Paul
SG Kobe Bryant SG Marco Bellineli
SF Ron Artest SF Trevor Ariza
PF Lamar Odom PF Carl Landry
C Pau Gasol C Emeka Okafor
The Bench
F Luke Walton C Aaron Gray
G Shannon Brown G Willie Green
C Joe Smith G Quincy Pondexter
G Steve Blake F/C Jason Smith
F Matt Barnes G Jarret Jack
F Derrick Caracter C D.J. Mbenga
C Theo Ratliff F Patrick Ewing, Jr.
Key Players: Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul
Watch out for: Shannon Brown, Jarret Jack
Season series: Los Angeles won, 4-0
How the roster stacks up:
The Lakers are eyeing another 3-peat with the their slightly intact roster from when they won last year. They only got stronger with the offseason addition of Matt Barnes, but he’s been hampered by injury throughout the season. Steve Blake was acquired to hit big shots and provide veteran presence in the backcourt. Joe Smith and Theo Ratliff are somewhat of an upgrade from DJ Mbenga. Their frontcourt depth was put to the test when Andrew Bynum got hurt, but it doesn’t necessarily cripple their team. Lamar Odom can fill in nicely for Bynum at the starting lineup, but Pau Gasol has to slide to the 5, which isn’t his preferred position. The frontcourt of Gasol, Odom, and Ron Artest should still create matchup problems, but it’s not as intimidating as Gasol and Bynum down low. Their bench, usually sparked by Odom, will not lose too much energy and spark, with Shannon Brown effectively bringing it. Luke Walton has been a dependable player since his rookie season, and knows his role in the team.
Funny how when Chris Paul got injured last season, the Hornets didn’t lose much in the point guard spot, with rookies Marcus Thornton and Darren Collison effectively filling up Paul’s void. One summer of uncertainty later, the new management decide to trade away Collison to Indiana, in a move seen as a vote of confidence for Paul, to assure him that this is still HIS team. Then at the trade deadline, they decide to trade away the equally effective Thornton for Carl Landry. While that last move essentially traded away the two most important sparks of the Hornets last season, it became a somewhat important move for them when all-star David West hurt himself. With Landry coming off the bench, they had that much talent in their frontcourt, with an improved Jason Smith and a young Aaron Gray. But with West hurt, the frontcourt looked that much thinner. If the young journeyman Patrick Ewing Jr. can show glimpses of his father’s game, then maybe their frontcourt can compete. They are also vulnerable at the wing spot, with Ariza being the only true wing player they have. Quincy Pondexter showed he can perform when given the chance, and Jarret Jack has always been a reliable player. Marco Bellineli was finally given minutes, and his game made it that much easier for the Hornets to stop waiting on Peja Stojakovic to get healthy.
Prediction: Lakers sweep
No matter how hard the Hornets play to win, they effectively lost any hope of advancing past the first round when David West got hurt. They can fill out the void with Carl Landry, but not only does West bring with him 10 points more than Landry’s output, he also deprives them of the clutch performances and leadership that he brings to the team. They can probably give the Lakers a scare, but talent-wise, they are going to get eaten alive by the Lakers. With all the negative flak Kobe and the rest of the team has been getting for their poor finish of the regular season, expect the Lakers to come out on fire to start the playoffs, and make an example of the Hornets to remind the other contenders that they are still the team to beat.
(3) Dallas Mavericks vs (6) Portland Trail Blazers
Roster:
DALLAS PORTLAND
PG Jason Kidd PG Andre Miller
SG Rodrigue Beaubois SG Brandon Roy
SF Shawn Marion SF Nicolas Batum
PF Dirk Nowitzki PF LaMarcus Aldridge
C Tyson Chandler C Marcus Camby
The Bench
G Jason Terry F Rudy Fernandez
G DeShawn Stevenson G Wesley Matthews
C Brendan Haywood F Gerald Wallace
F Brian Cardinal F Patrick Mills
G J.J. Barea F Luke Babbit
F Corey Brewer G Armon Johnson
C Ian Mahinmi C Earl Barron
F Peja Stojakovic C Chris Johnson
G Caron Butler
Key Players: Dirk Nowitzki, LaMarcus Aldridge
Watch out for: Tyson Chandler/Jason Kidd, Brandon Roy/Gerald Wallace
Season series: Series tied, 2-2
How the roster stacks up:
Dirk Nowitzki’s success has carried the Mavericks to consecutive playoff appearances. He’s won a season MVP award, and has taken his team to the NBA Finals at one point. But all these years, despite great success in the regular season and having a stacked roster, they were never really able to duplicate that Finals run. Heck, they were, at one point, upset by the 8th seeded Golden State Warriors in the first round of the playoffs after posting the best record in the NBA. This season, they challenged for at least the 2nd spot of the West, and was one of the hottest teams in the league at one point, before injuries to Caron Butler and Dirk Nowitzki crippled their team greatly. They bounced back, and settled for third in the West. The return of Rodrigue Beaubois sparked a run for their team. Jason Kidd and Dirk recognize what Beaubois brings to the team, and speak highly of him. Speaking of Kidd, he’s still bringing it night in and night out like he wasn’t one of the senior statesmen in the NBA. He is probably the only player I’ve seen who can affect the outcome of the game without scoring a single point. Jason Terry is a pseudo-sixth man of the team, not starting, but playing starters’ minutes. J.J. Barea is a ball of energy off the bench. Tyson Chandler, brought in at the offseason, drastically changed the image of Dallas; they can finally claim to have a “D”. Shawn Marion is far removed from his “Matrix” days, but he can still stuff the stat sheet and brings important intangibles to help their team win. The acquisition of Corey Brewer and Peja Stojakovic (if healthy) can give Dallas a couple of looks at the wing spot; a defensive-minded athletic wing, and a sharp shooting sniper.
For Portland, LaMarcus Aldridge has made this season Portland’s transition from having Brandon Roy as the face of the franchise, to him carrying the team on his back. He was a borderline all-star this season, and many felt disappointment that he got snubbed. He responds by a string of monster performances when he’d have 40-point night with monster boards. With the help of Wesley Matthews, Rudy Fernandez, and Nicolas Batum, Aldridge carried this team to gutsy wins over the course of the season. Brandon Roy came back, as he is a warrior and all that, but he’s not as good as the player he was a couple of seasons ago. Sure, the basketball IQ can’t be taken away from him, but he isn’t at the same level as he was before he drained his knees. His IQ and personality makes him a still valuable player for the Blazers, as there is no doubt that he can evolve into a different player that the team needs him to be in order to win. Losing Steve Blake in the offseason probably hurt them a bit in terms of backcourt depth, but this was a vote of confidence for Andre Miller, who, as I remember, complained about playing time while Blake was still with the team. It even led to Coach Nate McMillan playing a 3-guard rotation with Roy, Blake, and Miller playing at the same time. The acquisition of Gerald Wallace at the trade deadline was a steal for the Blazers. They have a scary wing rotation with Batum, Matthews, Wallace, and Fernandez constantly bringing energy, hustle, and scoring.
Prediction: Dallas in 7
This is a series that could go either way, really. But someone has to win. I think ultimately, Dallas would win this one out only because of Jason Kidd’s hunger. He knows his window is closing, and with a looming lockout next season, he’s already contemplating retirement. With that in mind, he may be thinking that this would be his last shot at winning the big one. Still, Portland is a very dangerous team, and Dallas has always been the favorite top seed to be upset by a lower seeded team. They’ve built a reputation of being a really good regular season team, but they haven’t done much to prove to critics that they’re just as good a team in the postseason. But defensive identity that Tyson Chandler brings to the team may probably be the biggest difference in this particular postseason. Shawn Marion will have his work cut out for him chasing around Portland’s wings, which may still swing the series in favor of Portland.
(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (5) Denver Nuggets
Roster:
OKLAHOMA DENVER
PG Russel Westbrook PG Ty Lawson
SG Thabo Sefolosha SG Aaron Aflalo
SF Kevin Durant SF Danilo Gallinari
PF Serge Ibaka PF Kenyon Martin
C Kendrick Perkins C Nene
The Bench
C Nazi Mohammed G Raymond Felton
G/F James Harden F Wilson Chandler
G Eric Maynor C Kosta Koufos
C Byron Mullens F Gary Forbes
G Daequan Cook G J.R. Smith
G Nate Robinson C Chris Andersen
G Royal Ivey C Timofrey Mozgov
C Cole Aldrich F Al Harrington
F Nick Collison F Melvin Ely
Key Players: Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook, Ty Lawson/Kenyon Martin
Watch out for: Kendrick Perkins, J.R. Smith
Season series: Oklahoma City won, 3-1
How the roster stacks up:
David Aldridge pointed out in his Morning Tip in NBA.com that Russell Westbrook somehow “hurt” teammate Kevin Durant’s chances at winning an MVP award this season by simply being spectacular. If I were in KD’s shoes, I’d take not winning the individual award if it means more team success on their part. And more team success is expected from this team with Kendrick Perkins bringing the muscle they lacked last year when they pushed the top seeded Lakers to their limit and needed a timely tip in from Pau Gasol to overcome the upstart Thunder team. James Harden has been brilliant whenever his number is called. Thabo Sefolosha is a player that the Thunder management has had their eyes on since he made himself available at the draft board and they are getting what they expected from him. Eric Maynor was one of the good pickups the Jazz had last year and his departure made then-star Deron Williams wonder about the direction the team is going to. Nate Robinson is a bit of a Westbrook clone, minus the D; he’s undersized, but explosive on the offense. Daequan Cook was a one-time 3-point shootout winner, and he was had his spots back in his Miami days. Cole Aldrich is a solid rookie pickup, and Nick Collison is still a reliable 4. Serge Ibaka is playing his natural 4 spot, which changes the interior makeup of the Thunder.
The Nuggets were expected to drop following the departure of franchise player Carmelo Anthony. But surprise! They’ve locked up the 5th seed in the West, and won more games than New York post-trade. I’m not sure who in NBA.com pointed it out, but Kenyon Martin has apparently rose to the occasion when the team needed a leader. The Nuggets not only lost their franchise player in the trade, they also lost a couple of veteran voices in the locker room in Chauncey Billups and Anthony Carter. But their desire to win was only fueled even more with critics saying their team is going to the dumps. Danilo Gallinari is still a solid piece to build around on. Wilson Chandler is a young, athletic player who can man both forward spots and effectively fill it with defense and some range in offense. Aaron Afflalo carried the scoring load for the team when they needed it at some points in the season. Nene has emerged as a solid inside presence, as he has always been when healthy. Chris Andersen, likewise, provides the energy they need off the bench. Raymond Felton was playing an all-star caliber season pre-trade, and it really doesn’t matter if he and Ty Lawson interchange at the starting point guard spot because the team doesn’t really lose anything at that position. Gary Forbes also had his moments in the regular season, so the team knows that he will contribute when called upon. And how can we forget that J.R. Smith is on their team? Starting or off the bench, Smith generates excitement, flair, swagger, and energy that contributes greatly to their team’s success. Al Harrington is also a nice stretch 4 that could create some matchup problems with his ability to shoot outside, but won’t help too much on defense and rebounds with him constantly hanging around the perimeter.
Prediction: Oklahoma in 7
This is another series that could go either way, but I’m going with the home team here. The Nuggets can upset anybody at the level that they’re playing right now, but I don’t think their talent and momentum is enough to upset the more favored Thunder. I say more favored because while Denver has no legit superstar in their lineup, the Thunder has two. And while the Pistons of 2003 (?) showed how to win against a star-studded team (Kobe, Shaq, Payton, and Malone) without a legit superstar, what I think the Nuggets lack that the Pistons of old had is team identity. The Pistons of old was a defensive-oriented team, they win with defense. Right now, the Nuggets may have one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, but they are just a bunch of scrappy players who play really hard to win. While “scrappy” may be an identity, I don’t think it’s enough to carry them out of the first round. Besides, many believed that the Thunder was only one big piece in the middle away from upsetting the Lakers last season. Now that they got that big piece in Kendrick Perkins, there should be no doubt that the Thunder is in for a deep playoff run. I may be wrong again with this prediction, but for certain, this would be one of the most exciting matchups in the first round of the playoffs.
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