The Western Conference seems like it's going to get exciting only once the Conference Finals get going; when the Warriors are expected to face the Spurs for the right to compete in the NBA Finals. However, there are eight teams competing in the playoffs, with most of the teams wanting a shot at the same title. Injuries have hit some of these teams hard, which gives the impression that some of these match ups won't be as competitive as they should be.
It shouldn't be enough reason to pass on the first round for the west. Here are my thoughts on the first round for the West:
(1) Golden State Warriors vs (8) Houston Rockets - 2015 WCF Revenge Series
Golden State won regular season, 3-0
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| Both MVP candidates last season, but took huge steps in the opposite directions |
After 20 years, the 72-10 regular season of the '96 Bulls seemed like an impossible feat to replicate or even break. Then came the Golden State Warriors, the team that just won the NBA title despite plenty of doubters. They started the season strong, beating teams in blowout fashion game after game. They ended their regular season with their 73rd win - a blowout of the undermanned Memphis Grizzlies.
The Rockets failed to build on the excellent 2015 campaign with a disappointing run this year. After a 56-win season and almost toppling the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, they needed all 82 games this season just to hang on to the 8th seed. They are parading essentially the same lineup, with some minor tweaks, but they struggled with an out of shape James Harden and an unmotivated Dwight Howard.
Why Golden State Will Win:
After breaking the Bulls' 72-10 record, losing in the first round of the playoffs is unfathomable, is it not?
Why Houston Will Win:
With a practically intact core and some pieces working better than expected (Clint Capela, Donatas Motiejunas, Michael Beasley), the Rockets actually have a look of a contender. They have a talented roster built around their two superstars in Harden and Howard, and all they need is a motivation to win.
Why Golden State Will Lose:
The Warriors set NBA highs for three pointers that probably won't be broken until they decide to gun for it. Steph Curry set an NBA record of 402 three pointers in a season before anyone else could register 300. With their reliance on the three ball, the only reason they would lose in the first round is if they counted every Warrior three as a two pointer.
Why Houston Will Lose:
For all their talent, Harden and Howard don't have the same competitive fire there is in the likes of young franchise players as Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, and I daresay even Gordon Hayward. The only "winner" in the Rockets' bench is Jason Terry, and that doesn't speak highly of their winning mentality. Maybe that's why Josh Smith and Michael Beasley feel right at home in Houston.
Players to Watch Out For:
With all the attention on the Splash Brothers, Shaun Livingston is sneakily having a great season. If you haven't watched too many Warriors games, Livingston has been an excellent sixth man for them, providing length on defense and an impossible cover for point guards down on the low post. For the Rockets, Patrick Beverly will be given the impossible task of guarding Curry, with Corey Brewer probably having a crack at him too. How effective they are in stopping Curry would dictate how far the Rockets can go against the Warriors.
Logical Prediction: Warriors in 4
Hopeful Prediction: Warriors in 5
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs (6) Memphis Grizzlies - Asserting Their Own Dominance
San Antonio won regular season, 4-0
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| The Grizzlies lost Marc Gasol as the Spurs acquired a new problem to present |
With the Warriors winning a historic 73 wins this season, most people failed to notice that the Spurs won a franchise-best 67 wins themselves. They only lost once in their homecourt all season, and that was against the aforementioned Warriors team. All their accomplishments were overshadowed by the Warriors, and their best revenge would probably be to take this year's title away from them.
A season riddled with injury derailed the Grizzlies' campaign, but they won enough games to secure the sixth seed in the disappointing West. Marc Gasol suffered a season-ending injury, and Mike Conley will make his return in the Playoffs. The Grizzlies were suffering so much from injury, they once fielded a team this season filled with D-League call ups and 10-day contracts.
Why San Antonio Will Win:
While everyone seems to be patterning their teams to the small ball style of the Golden State Warriors, the San Antonio Spurs remain to be the team that every NBA franchise aspire to be. Despite their aging stars, they still managed to infuse young talent in their team, and are now in a great position to win it all with their past (Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili) and future (LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green?) meeting in this present time.
Why Memphis Will Win:
The Grizzlies have historically been a good matchup for the Spurs. Their grit and grind style of play was able to stop the Spurs' half court plays.
Why San Antonio Will Lose:
They won't.
Why Memphis Will Lose:
Losing Marc Gasol cripples Memphis on both ends of the floor.
Players to Watch Out For:
The Spurs will match up against the shell of a Memphis team that doesn't have Gasol in the middle. It may be a chance for them to give their bench some playoff minutes - Kevin Martin, Boban Marjanovic, and Kyle Anderson have given the Spurs quality minutes off the bench during the season, and getting playoff minutes could give them a shot of confidence they could use for the latter rounds of the playoffs. The Grizzlies may not be much this year, but imagine what this playoff run could do for the chemistry between Lance Stephenson, Matt Barnes, and "Grindfather" Tony Allen.
Logical Prediction: Spurs in 4
Hopeful Prediction: Spurs in 4
(3) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (7) Dallas Mavericks - Rekindling Lost Glory
Oklahoma City won regular season, 4-0
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| The old and the new collide on their way to a common goal |
What does one expect from a team that has a triple-double machine and a former league MVP? The Thunder have not made a return trip to the Finals since 2010, even if they were billed to be a piece or two away from being a dynasty. The Thunder have done well surrounding their superstars with talent, even if it meant overpaying some of them. They may not have found their 2010 James Harden just yet, but they do have a formidable duo up front in the Beard Brothers, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams, to clean up the boards.
Kobe Bryant's farewell tour took all the thunder out of the aging Dirk Nowitzki's brilliant season. The 17-year vet fueled his team's run to the Playoffs despite missing the services of potential future franchise player Chandler Parsons and offseason acquisition Wesley Matthews for most of it.
Why Oklahoma Will Win:
Both Westbrook and Durant would be difficult to contain alone, and even if they try, both those guys will still get their shots up by sheer determination.
Why Dallas Will Win:
The Mavericks have weirdly been a great team playing at home, figuring in a number of comeback victories while playing in front of their home crowd. They don't rely on a single player, as different people step up when they need them the most. That's not to say that they don't have a crunchtime player; they still have Dirk Nowitzki, and he's been playing like it was 2007 in some games. If he can somehow sustain that level of basketball, they may just pull off a surprise against the Thunder.
Why Oklahoma Will Lose:
They still don't have a third scorer, and Serge Ibaka has not made much of an impact this season to be their third star.
Why Dallas Will Lose:
Aging and recovering legs are playing for the Mavs, and they lack the scoring and playmaking at the forward spot provided by Chandler Parsons.
Players to Watch Out For:
Dallas needs Deron Williams to channel his Utah self and be more than just a serviceable point guard. For the Thunder, Cameron Payne could potentially steal Dion Waiters' minutes and be a more effective two-way player at the other guard spot.
Logical Prediction: Oklahoma in 5
Hopeful Prediction: Dallas in 6
(4) LA Clippers vs (5) Portland Trailblazers - Defying Expectations
Los Angeles won regular season, 3-1
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| The smallest guys on the court would play the biggest roles for their teams |
The Clippers nearly lost DeAndre Jordan during the offseason, until the drama ended with him coming back. Despite their mostly intact core, they struggled to win against contenders this season season. While losing Blake Griffin to injury didn't affect them as bad as people thought, his altercation with a team staff put them in an awkward position.
Losing four of their five starters in the offseason usually means a team was destined for the lottery, but the starter that remained wouldn't have any of it. Damian Lillard played out of his mind, and the Blazers found a dangerous combination with him in C.J. McCollum and suddenly, they aren't in a position to build through a high draft pick.
Why Los Angeles Will Win:
They have the talent, and they have been here before. They built their team aiming for a championship, and any result below that would be a disappointment.
Why Portland Will Win:
Nobody thought the Blazers would be in the Playoffs, much less a fifth seed in what has been a competitive Western Conference. Yet, here they are, set to play the Clippers. They have no business winning, but they won anyway. I don't know how they did, so I can't explain how they could, but they probably would.
Why Los Angeles Will Lose:
For a team built so well, they lose always seem to mess up when it matters.
Why Portland Will Lose:
They lost four of their five starters from last season. This is the same reason they should not have won a playoff spot, so I don't know if that's enough reason for them to lose here.
Players to Watch Out For:
Maurice Harkless was a talent the Orlando Magic was reluctant to part with, and while he has been on the bench for most of the season with Portland, he carved out minutes for himself during the latter half of the season. Look for him to play a more prominent role with the Blazers. For the Clippers, Blake Griffin's return would be a huge boost for them, but they would need Jeff Green to play a more prominent role off the bench if they want to finally get over the hump.
Logical Prediction: Los Angeles in 4
Hopeful Prediction: Portland in 6
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