Saturday, April 16, 2016

...The NBA Playoffs: Western Conference First Round...



The Western Conference seems like it's going to get exciting only once the Conference Finals get going; when the Warriors are expected to face the Spurs for the right to compete in the NBA Finals. However, there are eight teams competing in the playoffs, with most of the teams wanting a shot at the same title. Injuries have hit some of these teams hard, which gives the impression that some of these match ups won't be as competitive as they should be. 

It shouldn't be enough reason to pass on the first round for the west. Here are my thoughts on the first round for the West:

(1) Golden State Warriors vs (8) Houston Rockets - 2015 WCF Revenge Series
Golden State won regular season, 3-0

Both MVP candidates last season, but took huge steps in the opposite directions

After 20 years, the 72-10 regular season of the '96 Bulls seemed like an impossible feat to replicate or even break. Then came the Golden State Warriors, the team that just won the NBA title despite plenty of doubters. They started the season strong, beating teams in blowout fashion game after game. They ended their regular season with their 73rd win - a blowout of the undermanned Memphis Grizzlies. 

The Rockets failed to build on the excellent 2015 campaign with a disappointing run this year. After a 56-win season and almost toppling the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, they needed all 82 games this season just to hang on to the 8th seed. They are parading essentially the same lineup, with some minor tweaks, but they struggled with an out of shape James Harden and an unmotivated Dwight Howard. 


Why Golden State Will Win: 

After breaking the Bulls' 72-10 record, losing in the first round of the playoffs is unfathomable, is it not?   

Why Houston Will Win:

With a practically intact core and some pieces working better than expected (Clint Capela, Donatas Motiejunas, Michael Beasley), the Rockets actually have a look of a contender. They have a talented roster built around their two superstars in Harden and Howard, and all they need is a motivation to win. 

Why Golden State Will Lose:

The Warriors set NBA highs for three pointers that probably won't be broken until they decide to gun for it. Steph Curry set an NBA record of 402 three pointers in a season before anyone else could register 300. With their reliance on the three ball, the only reason they would lose in the first round is if they counted every Warrior three as a two pointer. 

Why Houston Will Lose:

For all their talent, Harden and Howard don't have the same competitive fire there is in the likes of young franchise players as Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, and I daresay even Gordon Hayward. The only "winner" in the Rockets' bench is Jason Terry, and that doesn't speak highly of their winning mentality. Maybe that's why Josh Smith and Michael Beasley feel right at home in Houston.

Players to Watch Out For:

With all the attention on the Splash Brothers, Shaun Livingston is sneakily having a great season. If you haven't watched too many Warriors games, Livingston has been an excellent sixth man for them, providing length on defense and an impossible cover for point guards down on the low post. For the Rockets, Patrick Beverly will be given the impossible task of guarding Curry, with Corey Brewer probably having a crack at him too. How effective they are in stopping Curry would dictate how far the Rockets can go against the Warriors. 

Logical Prediction: Warriors in 4

Hopeful Prediction: Warriors in 5

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs (6) Memphis Grizzlies - Asserting Their Own Dominance
San Antonio won regular season, 4-0

The Grizzlies lost Marc Gasol as the Spurs acquired a new problem to present

With the Warriors winning a historic 73 wins this season, most people failed to notice that the Spurs won a franchise-best 67 wins themselves. They only lost once in their homecourt all season, and that was against the aforementioned Warriors team. All their accomplishments were overshadowed by the Warriors, and their best revenge would probably be to take this year's title away from them.

A season riddled with injury derailed the Grizzlies' campaign, but they won enough games to secure the sixth seed in the disappointing West. Marc Gasol suffered a season-ending injury, and Mike Conley will make his return in the Playoffs. The Grizzlies were suffering so much from injury, they once fielded a team this season filled with D-League call ups and 10-day contracts. 

Why San Antonio Will Win: 

While everyone seems to be patterning their teams to the small ball style of the Golden State Warriors, the San Antonio Spurs remain to be the team that every NBA franchise aspire to be. Despite their aging stars, they still managed to infuse young talent in their team, and are now in a great position to win it all with their past (Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili) and future (LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green?) meeting in this present time.   

Why Memphis Will Win:

The Grizzlies have historically been a good matchup for the Spurs. Their grit and grind style of play was able to stop the Spurs' half court plays. 

Why San Antonio Will Lose:

They won't.  

Why Memphis Will Lose:

Losing Marc Gasol cripples Memphis on both ends of the floor.

Players to Watch Out For:

The Spurs will match up against the shell of a Memphis team that doesn't have Gasol in the middle. It may be a chance for them to give their bench some playoff minutes - Kevin Martin, Boban Marjanovic, and Kyle Anderson have given the Spurs quality minutes off the bench during the season, and getting playoff minutes could give them a shot of confidence they could use for the latter rounds of the playoffs. The Grizzlies may not be much this year, but imagine what this playoff run could do for the chemistry between Lance Stephenson, Matt Barnes, and "Grindfather" Tony Allen. 

Logical Prediction: Spurs in 4

Hopeful Prediction: Spurs in 4

(3) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (7) Dallas Mavericks - Rekindling Lost Glory
Oklahoma City won regular season, 4-0

The old and the new collide on their way to a common goal

What does one expect from a team that has a triple-double machine and a former league MVP? The Thunder have not made a return trip to the Finals since 2010, even if they were billed to be a piece or two away from being a dynasty. The Thunder have done well surrounding their superstars with talent, even if it meant overpaying some of them. They may not have found their 2010 James Harden just yet, but they do have a formidable duo up front in the Beard Brothers, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams, to clean up the boards. 

Kobe Bryant's farewell tour took all the thunder out of the aging Dirk Nowitzki's brilliant season. The 17-year vet fueled his team's run to the Playoffs despite missing the services of potential future franchise player Chandler Parsons and offseason acquisition Wesley Matthews for most of it. 


Why Oklahoma Will Win: 

Both Westbrook and Durant would be difficult to contain alone, and even if they try, both those guys will still get their shots up by sheer determination.    

Why Dallas Will Win:

The Mavericks have weirdly been a great team playing at home, figuring in a number of comeback victories while playing in front of their home crowd. They don't rely on a single player, as different people step up when they need them the most. That's not to say that they don't have a crunchtime player; they still have Dirk Nowitzki, and he's been playing like it was 2007 in some games. If he can somehow sustain that level of basketball, they may just pull off a surprise against the Thunder. 

Why Oklahoma Will Lose:

They still don't have a third scorer, and Serge Ibaka has not made much of an impact this season to be their third star. 

Why Dallas Will Lose:

Aging and recovering legs are playing for the Mavs, and they lack the scoring and playmaking at the forward spot provided by Chandler Parsons. 

Players to Watch Out For:

Dallas needs Deron Williams to channel his Utah self and be more than just a serviceable point guard. For the Thunder, Cameron Payne could potentially steal Dion Waiters' minutes and be a more effective two-way player at the other guard spot. 

Logical Prediction: Oklahoma in 5

Hopeful Prediction: Dallas in 6

(4) LA Clippers vs (5) Portland Trailblazers - Defying Expectations
Los Angeles won regular season, 3-1

The smallest guys on the court would play the biggest roles for their teams


The Clippers nearly lost DeAndre Jordan during the offseason, until the drama ended with him coming back. Despite their mostly intact core, they struggled to win against contenders this season season. While losing Blake Griffin to injury didn't affect them as bad as people thought, his altercation with a team staff put them in an awkward position. 

Losing four of their five starters in the offseason usually means a team was destined for the lottery, but the starter that remained wouldn't have any of it. Damian Lillard played out of his mind, and the Blazers found a dangerous combination with him in C.J. McCollum and suddenly, they aren't in a position to build through a high draft pick.  

Why Los Angeles Will Win: 

They have the talent, and they have been here before. They built their team aiming for a championship, and any result below that would be a disappointment.    

Why Portland Will Win:

Nobody thought the Blazers would be in the Playoffs, much less a fifth seed in what has been a competitive Western Conference. Yet, here they are, set to play the Clippers. They have no business winning, but they won anyway. I don't know how they did, so I can't explain how they could, but they probably would. 

Why Los Angeles Will Lose:

For a team built so well, they lose always seem to mess up when it matters. 

Why Portland Will Lose:

They lost four of their five starters from last season. This is the same reason they should not have won a playoff spot, so I don't know if that's enough reason for them to lose here.  

Players to Watch Out For:

Maurice Harkless was a talent the Orlando Magic was reluctant to part with, and while he has been on the bench for most of the season with Portland, he carved out minutes for himself during the latter half of the season. Look for him to play a more prominent role with the Blazers. For the Clippers, Blake Griffin's return would be a huge boost for them, but they would need Jeff Green to play a more prominent role off the bench if they want to finally get over the hump.  

Logical Prediction: Los Angeles in 4

Hopeful Prediction: Portland in 6

Friday, April 15, 2016

...The NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference First Round...




The Golden State Warriors have dominated the NBA regular season so much this season that almost everyone believes that they will win their second championship in a row. As such, the first round of the Playoffs doesn't seem to be too appealing to watch, as there aren't too many exciting match ups anyway. However, while I think this crop of playoff teams won't be able to replicate the crazy first round we saw last season, I think that there are still exciting pairings in the playoffs that I'd want to watch. 

Here are my thoughts on the first round of the NBA Playoffs for the East, and some storylines that I think are worth looking at if only to make it more interesting:
Eastern Conference

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (8) Detroit Pistons - The First Test
Detroit won regular season, 3-1

The men tasked to carry their teams on their backs

The Cavs dominated the East last season, and while the Dubs ultimately won the championship, LeBron James came close to fulfilling the promise he had for the city of Cleveland. There was a belief that their path to the championship was too easy compared to the one the Dubs had to take, which made it difficult for them to overcome the battle-tested newcomers in the Finals.

After dominating the East in the early part of 2000's, the Pistons have since dissected their roster and are pursuing a new identity. With Coach Stan Van Gundy at the helm, they might have just gotten it. Much like his successful stint with the DPOY-caliber Dwight Howard-powered Orlando Magic, the team is now anchored by a defense-oriented Andre Drummond. While he isn't the superstar that Howard was in the Magic, Drummond's steady improvement has made him indispensable for the Pistons. 

Why Cleveland Will Win: 

Roster-wise, the Cavaliers are the superior team. They went all the way to the Finals last season even with Kevin Love sidelined since the first round. This year, they are healthier and hungrier for a title than ever. Since changing their head coach, their top three stars have had more of a free hand in playing the way they want.  

Why Detroit Will Win:

They are a team with everything to gain and nothing to lose, as any eighth seed is. They did aspire to enter the Playoffs, but they probably weren't looking at hanging on for dear life. They're a dangerous team at the bottom of the East, and they have ample talent to match up well with the Cavs - Their regular season match up result can attest to that 

Why Cleveland Will Lose:

Their chemistry has been questionable, and we're not sure who's coaching the team. 

Why Detroit Will Lose:

SVG's Orlando Magic was filled with shooters around Dwight Howard, and while the Pistons have several stretch fours, they don't have knockdown shooters from beyond the arc. 

Players to Watch Out For:

Cleveland will need Minnesota's Kevin Love, and not whoever is playing for them these past couple of seasons. The Pistons acquired Tobias Harris at the trade deadline in order to add depth to their team. While the Pistons' defense rightfully relies on Drummond, the offensive load will need to be carried by the likes of Harris, Marcus Morris, and Reggie Jackson. 

Logical Prediction: Cavs in 7

Hopeful Prediction: Pistons in 6

(2) Toronto Raptors vs (7) Indiana Pacers - Breaking the Wall the Other Couldn't
Toronto won regular season, 3-1

Can DeMar DeRozan take Toronto where Paul George failed to bring Indiana? 

The Raptors are one of the top teams in the East again this year, and they got even stronger by adding DeMarre Carroll in their mix. Their players have been together for multiple years now, and they may have a chance to do what the Indiana Pacers failed to do during their brief run at the top of the East.

Speaking of the Pacers, their years of success was hindered by a freak accident on their superstar Paul George. None of the Pacers stepped up in his absence, and Roy Hibbert was exposed as an average big man in what could have been a career year for him. The Pacers are not as stacked as they once were, but with George back in the fold, they made it back to the Playoffs. 


Why Toronto Will Win: 

Their roster endured key injures during the regular season, but was still able to finish with their best regular season in team history. They looked like a piece or two away from looking like a team that could get over the hump, and they might have gotten their piece in Carroll. Their solid core of Kyle Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas, and DeMar DeRozan has been bolstered by players stepping up in their absence, with the likes of Bismack Biyombo, Terrence Ross, and Corey Joseph stepping up when their main guys are injured.   

Why Indiana Will Win:

The Pacers have enough talent on offense to put the basket in the hoop. Apart from George, they have Monta Ellis, Rodney Stuckey, C.J. Miles, and they scored on a waiver pickup on Ty Lawson. They have ample frontcourt depth with the likes of Ian Mahinmi and Jordan Hill, and they have a talented rookie in Myles Turner. The competitor in Paul George doesn't seem to be the type who will settle for a first round exit. 

Why Toronto Will Lose:

They have the look of a contender, but they always seem to miss something. While Lowry and DeRozan are capable players and legitimate All-Stars, they don't seem to be players that can be spoken of in the same breath as Kobe, LeBron, and even Paul George.

Why Indiana Will Lose:

Their offensive firepower has a lot of potential, but they have too many players who need the ball in their hands to create for themselves. 

Players to Watch Out For:

Both teams will have interesting rookies who could play major roles in their respective teams. Norman Powell is a rookie that didn't get much playing time until late in the season for the Raptors. He's given the Raptors unexpected depth with his athleticism and scoring prowess, and showed that he can carry a team on his back in the Raptors' last game of the season. The Pacers lost their defensive anchor in Hibbert, but they don't seem short on defense with the emergence of rookie Myles Turner.  

Logical Prediction: Toronto in 5

Hopeful Prediction: Toronto in 6

(3) Miami Heat vs (6) Charlotte Hornets - Who Runs the Floor Better?
Regular season tied, 2-2

Dwyane Wade is playing like it's 2003

Post-LeBron Heat got back on track faster than expected. They looked good last year before Chris Bosh had a life-threatening injury that kept him out of action. Even the arrival of Goran Dragic wasn't enough to push them to the Playoffs. This year, they faced a similar issue with Bosh, but the improved chemistry of the team and the brilliant season from Dwyane Wade helped them stay on the winning track. Adding Joe Johnson off waivers did wonders for the team as well.

Al Jefferson has not panned out as well as expected for the Hornets. However, they did find a gem by drafting Kemba Walker, and were able to bolster their backcourt with offseason signings of Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lin, and later added Courtney Lee. They have been inconsistent throughout the season, but this young team has shown that they match up well against the Heat during the regular season. 

Why Miami Will Win: 

They have the talent, the coach, and the superstar that could lead the team all the way. Joe Johnson was courted by the Cavs, who are favorites to win the East, but decided to join the Heat in his pursuit of a championship. Goran Dragic could have walked away after failing to make the playoffs with the team last season, but may have thought that the Heat were onto something and stuck around. Maybe both players found something with the Heat that people too blinded by LeBron's greatness fail to see. 

Why Charlotte Will Win:

The Hornets have an intriguing roster that has the potential to play small effectively. Despite the absence of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist due to injury, they have incredible talent at the wing to pair with Kemba Walker at the point - Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lamb, Courtney Lee, Marvin Williams, and a rejuvenated Jeremy Lin could take turns running either the shooting guard or small forward positions. Williams and Batum could also play the stretch four position, if they want to run Miami to the ground. 

Why Miami Will Lose:

Hassan Whiteside can be a blessing or a curse for the Heat. His emotions can sometimes get the best of him, and it's not impossible to exploit that weakness of him. While Amar'e Stoudemire has been great for the Heat offensively, he was never known to be a defensive presence even in his prime. Also, Joe Johnson has a tendency to vanish in games that matter. 

Why Charlotte Will Lose:

They may not have enough talent to match up against the Heat. They have too many young players with no playoff experience, and I don't think their coach has found the right pieces that fit best together on the floor. 

Players to Watch Out For:

Linsanity was a phenomenon in the regular season, but this is the first time we may possibly see it in the playoffs. Could Jeremy Lin find a way to recreate his magic against the Heat? Josh Richardson was the lesser pick for the Heat in this year's draft, but he has leapfrogged Justice Winslow as the prized rookie in terms of playing time near the end of the season, especially in crunch time. Could he carry the success he had late in the regular season?  

Logical Prediction: Heat in 6

Hopeful Prediction: Heat in 4

(4) Atlanta Hawks vs (5) Boston Celtics - A Coaching Chess Match
Atlanta won regular season, 3-1

Evan Turner is proving his worth as a second-overall pick.

A year after surprising the league by registering the best regular season finish in the East, the Hawks find themselves in a strange four-team tie in the middle of the pack. Kyle Korver had a career season last year, but failed to build on his momentum this season. Losing DeMarre Carroll dealt a huge blow to the Hawks' success, but they are coached well enough to maintain their stature among the East's top teams. 

The Celtics are armed with a bunch of draft picks and young talent, and weren't supposed to be in the playoffs last season. It may be a testament to how good Coach Brad Stevens really is. Isaiah Thomas has emerged as the team's go-to guy in his All-Star season, and the team that refuses to lose has proven that last year's playoff run wasn't a fluke by any means. 

Why Atlanta Will Win: 

They have been here before, and they know what it takes to win at this stage. They may have lost Carroll, but they didn't have Thabo Sefolosha in their run last year. They also added a scoring threat in Tim Hardaway Jr., and the continued rise of Dennis Shroder solidifies the team's point guard position throughout the whole game.  

Why Boston Will Win:

Their big man situation may be a mess, but Coach Stevens has been able to make it work. The players have complete confidence in their coach, and are all willing to do what it takes to win. The return of Jae Crowder from injury also gives the Celtics a different look on both ends of the floor. 

Why Atlanta Will Lose:

Their strengths could be their biggest weaknesses. Jeff Teague's name has been floated in trade rumors, with Shroder looking like the point guard the Hawks would want to build around on. The uncertainty of whether or not Al Horford will stick around could also be a motivation or a distraction for the team.  

Why Boston Will Lose:

SVG's Orlando Magic was filled with shooters around Dwight Howard, and while the Pistons have several stretch fours, they don't have knockdown shooters from beyond the arc. 

Players to Watch Out For:

The Hawks' offseason acquisition of Tim Hardaway Jr. looked like a move that will give them a younger player with more defensive potential than Kyle Korver. However, he wasn't used much this season, until a brief stretch towards the end where the second generation player was able to carve out minutes for himself. Kelly Olynyk was playing well for the Celtics before he was sidelined by injury. He hasn't been as effective in his return, as Jared Sullinger and Amir Johnson have both played well in his absence. Look for both players to provide firepower for their respective teams in the playoffs.  

Logical Prediction: Hawks in 7

Hopeful Prediction: Boston in 6