...Not an Open Letter from a RoS Fan: Scouting the Mixers...

The San Mig Super Coffee Mixers and the Barangay Ginebra Gin Kings figured in an epic seven-game series, which the Mixers won last Wednesday to set up a date with the Rain or Shine Elastopainters for the Finals of this All-Filipino Conference. This is the nth time Coach Tim Cone will be in a Finals series, while the young Elastopainters will figure in just their third Finals appearance.

I am a basketball fan, and I enjoyed the SMC-BGK series immensely, despite not rooting for anyone in particular. However, as a fan that (at least I'd like to believe) has an above-average understanding of the game, I have grown to love the way that Rain or Shine plays the game. I have been rooting for Rain or Shine since they traded away Sol Mercado; the same time they got the outspoken Coach Yeng Guiao to take the helm for their team. Coach Yeng just made lineups work. He was leading the Red Bull franchise to multiple playoff and finals appearances despite management constantly trading away his main guys. I'd hate to say "the team plays with heart" because I have conceded that UST concept to Gilas. RoS just plays hard and does not give up. In a word, "palaban". The team doesn't care if it's down 16 heading to the fourth quarter, and they don't need a whole arena chanting their name to make a run. The team is bigger than any individual player. Gabe Norwood is arguably the biggest name in terms of basketball, and Chris Tiu may be the biggest name in the team in general, but both concede their roles to whoever Coach Yeng says.

And now, here we are again, no import to reinforce both sides, no political campaigns to worry about. Rain Or Shine is back in the Finals. I have little doubt in my mind that we will take this series. Since I won't be able to watch the first game tomorrow, I leave this as my contribution to the team. Here is how I see our opponents:

*NOTE: All photos from Google. Not taking credit for any of it. I note those without watermarks.

Backcourt:

Mark Barroca

Size doesn't matter for Barroca
*Photo from Inquirer Sports

When You See Him: A little before the end of the first quarter or starts the second quarter. Depending on the flow of the game, he'll be in the middle of the third until the end of the game, with a brief spell in the break or he'll sit out for a hotter player on the court.

Strengths: Speed, playmaking, and pesky defense. Knows how to use the board or his body when going up against big guys down the lane.

Weaknesses: Sometimes gets a little too eager getting the ball and gets called for petty fouls. Blocking the passing lanes late will throw him off; he has a tendency to look for the pass before setting his feet,making him susceptible to traps.

Stop Him With: Jireh Ibanez, Gabe Norwood either on him or to his favorite target. Paul Lee may not be able to keep up with him on a footrace. TY Tang will get called for fouls because he's not much of a star as Barroca is. Jeric Teng might be pulled out by Coach Yeng to handle this assignment from time to time. Chris Tiu is a candidate if only because he's a good basketball sense in him to figure something out. Ryan Arana will mess him up good. Yes, safe to say, I want just about everyone thrown at Barroca. Stopping  Barroca is key for RoS; he may not be what LA is to Ginebra, but his teammates feed off his energy as much as they do off Pingris.

PJ Simon

That's not an awkward shot for him at all.

When You See Him: Starting the game, mostly spelled by either Melton, Barroca, and for some reason, Mallari.

Strengths: A wild hot streak. When he's on, he is on. Almost automatic from three when he's free, has a midrange shot, and has that incredible floater.

Weaknesses: Off nights. It's sad but that's one of the primary ways he could be stopped. However, if his hop step in the lane is timed right for a defender to be right in front of him as he's about to take that floater, he usually hesitates and looks for the pass. Take that floater away, and he loses most of his offense, not allowing him to wax hot.

Stop Him With: Jireh Ibanez and Gabe Norwood are RoS' best defenders, and Simon being one of the best offensive weapons of SMC, it is only fitting one of these guys be on him.

Justin Melton

He's 5-11, can do that and more.

When You See Him: Spelling for the starters, usually in tandem with Barroca. He's mostly seen on the front end of an Ian Sanggalang basket.

Strengths: Athletic, has nice handles, can shoot from the outside and has a nice defensive awareness. Height is no reason for him to not block shots.

Weaknesses: Being young, he's sometimes swayed by the crowd to do something more than what he's capable off. He also sometimes gets too flashy dribbling or passing the ball.

Stop Him With: Paul Lee and Ryan Arana will make this kid regret his flashiness. Alex Nuyles will one-up him on those athletic plays.

Alex Mallari

Not a point.. Yet? Coach Tim will tell.

When You See Him: Start or mid second, when everyone needs a rest. Coach Tim likes his ball handlers tall, and Alex is one of his favorites despite not being too effective on the floor. He's either bricking shots, making dumb plays, or taking a free throw after the refs save his ass.

Strengths: Long and athletic, has slightly above average ball handling, has some mid to long range shots.

Weaknesses: Not too creative of a finisher, isn't consistent with his jump shot, is being experimented on to be a tall Magic-type point guard in the Triangle.

Stop Him With: Anyone not tasked to guard the main guys. I may be underestimating him, but unless he shows he's capable of doing what is expected of him, he doesn't warrant too much attention on defense. Jeff Chan and Paul Lee can take turns resting while marking him. Chris Tiu can out-Pogi him any day.

Swingmen:

James Yap

Will the shots fall as it did in Game 7?

When You See Him: Shooting bricks when Kris Aquino isn't wishing him good luck. He starts and is plugged in when the Mixers need some offensive firepower.

Strengths: Strong presence on the court that draws defenders, not-a-million moves, exceptional shooting (when hot), good timing on rebounds

Weaknesses: Defense (though that has improved a bit over the years), cold spells, almost-predictable moves (always starts with a jab step or a head fake when he gets it facing the basket; at least one fake on the post before dribbling twice for a spinning fadeaway)

Stop Him With: Jeff Chan, Alex Nuyles, Ryan Arana, or Jireh Ibanez when he needs a rest. His shots will fall if he's hot, and no amount of defense can stop that. He just needs to be bothered, with people needing to front him. If he gets it from the elbow, he usually drives towards the basket than choosing the baseline.


Joe Devance

He can pass from everywhere. Expect it to be flashy.
*Photo from Rappler

When You See Him: Starting, getting most minutes in the middle of quarters (someone else starts and finishes the quarters for him after the first quarter).

Strengths: Size and agility that's almost unfair because he can shoot from the outside. Has nice court awareness to know where his teammates are to find them where they need the ball.

Weaknesses: Tries to be a guard a little too much sometimes. He'll opt for a fancy pass rather than just doing the right play. Has a volatile temper that can be abused by playing him physically. I'm calling for at least three techs on him if this series goes seven games.

Stop Him With: Gabe Norwood in a normal lineup featuring two other guards (Lee, Arana), and agile bigs like Raymond Almazan and Jervy Cruz in a big lineup featuring both Extra Rice boys. Beau Belga and Larry Rodriguez can try to mark him if Almazan is tasked to man the middle as a weakside defender.

Frontcourt:

Marc Pingris

This shot has been money for Ping.
*Photo from Interaksyon.com

When You See Him: Everywhere. Blocking, rebounding, doing his version of the bicep shot, scrambling on the floor, and guarding practically everyone on the opposing team.

Strengths: Boundless energy, impeccable timing on rebounds, excellent defender, an improved one-handed jumper, a strong post up game.

Weaknesses: I have no words. Fouls, probably, because he plays too physical. Dribbling, probably.

Stop Him With: Any able body. The Extra Rice boys won't be pushed around if he goes for a post up, but they won't be able to jump up and block his one-handers. Almazan WILL be pushed around, so the only way he'll be effective against Ping is if he stays as a help defender. Jervy might be able to defend him on the floor, but won't be able to contain him if he posts up. Rodriguez is two gulang points up from Ping; if he can't defend him, he might fish a foul from him.

Ian Sanggalang

Gained a lot of confidence going up against Ginebra in 7 games

When You See Him: Mid to late first quarter, some stretches in the second and third, and if he's hot, he'll earn some for the fourth. He's usually on the receiving end of a Melton pass.

Strengths: Size advantage over the RoS big men, agile, has a midrange game, smart defender, long, and athletic.

Weaknesses: As a rookie, he hasn't shown some of the skills he did back in college; he's not much of a shot blocker now, and he's staying away from three point shots. He's easily rattled if he's too wide open.

Stop Him With: Extra Rice boys and Larry Rodriguez. I'm afraid that if Almazan picks him up, he reverts to his Baste form. RoS doesn't want him to gain confidence. I would've loved him to be on our team.

Rafi Reavis

Like Ping, he's agile enough to guard players smaller than him
*photo from Yahoo Sports Ph

When You See Him: Tapping missed free throws away from the rim. He usually starts the game for the Mixers, but is replaced by more capable scorers when they need it. He'll be in for crucial possessions where they need a rebound or a defensive stop.

Strengths: Long, agile, and athletic, the guy knows how to make use of his body and skills to the fullest. He doesn't score much (his hot Game 7 start isn't something you see everyday), because he understands his role in the team. High leaper, can get up to block shots or grab boards.

Weaknesses: Limited offensive game, mostly gets his points off offensive rebounds.

Stop Him With: Raymond Almazan, Beau Belga, Jervy Cruz. The bigs just need to keep an eye on him and box him out. He's not an option on offense, but can hurt RoS with putbacks and offensive boards.

Yancy De Ocampo

A distributor off the post.

When You See Him: When bigs are in foul trouble, or if  none of the big guards are not too effective in spreading out the floor.

Strengths: Veteran smarts, post passing

Weaknesses: Not too agile. He's generally an effective PF.

Stop Him With: Larry Rodriguez. Counter veteran smarts with another veteran.

Most Likely Effective Hugot:

JR Cawaling 

Not much pictures of him in an SMC uniform, but he's a steal at the end of the SMC bench

I honestly don't know if he saw minutes in the Ginebra series, but l think he's the best talent in the San Mig bench that isn't given enough minutes. I think he's a smart basketball player with better handles than Alex Mallari. Mallari looks to be more athletic than Cawaling, but the latter has a better mid to outside jumper and better ball handling skills. He could be a blindside pick by the Mixers.

...A Hole Not So Deep: A Perspective on Rain Or Shine...

I can't remember the last time when I followed a team in the PBA as much as I have followed Rain Or Shine over the past few years. I've seen the team grow from the Jojo Tangkay, Jun-Jun Cabatu, and Jay-R Reyes-anchored  inaugural team of Welcoat Dragons to a revamped and renamed squad headlined by the athletic duo of Gabe Norwood and Sol Mercado, to the spunky squad that they are now under Coach Yeng. It pains me that they are down 0-2, and though Talk N' Text is playing amazing ball, I still believe that they are not invincible.

Let me claim now that I am not an expert, nor am I a professional baller to be legitimately considered as an authority on the matter. I express opinion as a basketball fan and a Rain or Shine fan to offer my two cents. Feel free to discuss, but personally, here are my thoughts on (fielded) players and adjustments:

Guards

Ryan Arana 

Jaworski-lite is playing his game, but still isn't translating to wins. He's always there on rebound plays, can get to the rim on sneaky moves, can defend, has an outside shot, and was actually playing PG for Coach Yeng. Maybe Coach needs to play him more?

Paul Lee 

Looks like the best player on the court for Rain or Shine at times, but takes ill-advised decisions in at the wrong time. A bad jumper here and there, and dazzling moves that end with a shot that's high off the board. Nerves? Sell out? The team needs him to channel his inner Cobra Commander and not some fat kid who took too much Appeton to bulk up.

Chris Tiu

Always been a winner, and looks like he's getting good shots up, just not converting them. I guess he needs to Tiu-torize himself more on picking his shots. He's shooting horribly from three, but he seems to be taking a lot of it. Worst play in so far is his awesome pass to Jimmy Alapag during the crucial moments of Game One.  Other than that, his shots just aren't falling. It'll probably get better, but he needs to be patient with it. 

Gabe Norwood

Plays the point at times for the team. He's been tentative in Game One, but looked to attack in Game Two. Still, he's throwing up threes like he was Ray Allen or something. He's Gabe freakin Norwood, the athletic beast who was jumping all over opponents during his National Club stint, playing like a skinny LeBron James without a jumper. He needs to be more aggressive in the sense that he wants to rip that rim off and not take those turnaround fadeaway jumpers. He has the tools to destroy just about any defender thrown at him, but he needs to make use of them.

Jeff Chan

In a team of no superstars, Jeff Chan is one of the guys on the team that's close to legit superstar status. He's trying to play like it, but he's just ice cold from the field. He's a shooter who's added some slashing to his repertoire, but he's still not that good of a ball handler. He needs to lessen his one on one's unless there's sure to be help, and he needs to stop focusing on selling calls because there's a big chance that those whistles aren't going to go his way. 

Jireh Ibanez 

The captain and arguably the best defender of the team hasn't been able to stop anyone. It is perfectly understandable because TNT is basically a mirror-image of their team, as they have multiple weapons on offense. While his scrappiness and desire are unquestionable, one of his weak points is finishing at the rim. He has the tendency to try and do a little too much by driving to the basket recklessly and forcing shots in. He needs to calm down, understand that he can't take everyone one on one even at the post. He's also the fastest guys on the break, but he tends to force it even if the defense already recovered. 

TY Tang

Quality minutes in his appearance in Game Two, but won't be able to keep in step with Castro or Jimmy on defense. He calms the offense down and knows how to pick his spots. I don't see him getting extended minutes, but he just needs to keep playing his game when called upon. 

Forwards

Ronnie Matias

Plays like he's on an And1 Streetball challenge at times. Most amazing play so far would have to be that drive in the second half of Game Two where he split 4 defenders on a coast to coast. His outside shot hasn't been effective (as is everyone else's), and though he can create his own shots, he tends to force it as well. He needs to play the Matias game we've been accustomed to: gritty defense and scoring through offensive boards. Three point shooting should be secondary, even if he has been confident about it. And don't be too obvious on push offs. 

Larry Rodriguez

With the emergence of Jervy Cruz, Larry Rodriguez seems to have lost his confidence. He's been asking for the ball at the post, but he doesn't really do anything about it when he gets it. He's been tentative shooting the ball over the past two games, and when he does, he almost expects it to miss. If he can't shoot those mid range jumpers, he needs to just play his usual game of positioning for the rebound and getting his points via putbacks. He did that successfully over a stretch in the second quarter of Game Two that built his confidence up a bit.

Jervy Cruz
King Tiger truly is back. Still can't get over that spin move on Harvey Carey in Game One that brought me back to my UST days when we had that magical run for the championship. He's been aggressive on offense and has been relentless on the glass, but he's blowing some defensive assignments. He's tasked to guard either Ranidel De Ocampo, Harvey Carey, or Ali Peek, but usually is being switched to play against Jared Dillinger. Except for Ali, those are players who can shoot the ball from the perimeter on a consistent basis. While I love the fact that Jervy is playing below the rim on defense to be ready for those boards, he needs to keep an eye on RDO because he's killing RoS with his versatility. He needs to deny him the ball and must not allow him to get open looks for three, as that has been money for Ranidel. 

Centers

Beau Belga
Air Jollibee (as my favorite PBA Blog coined him) has been playing a bit inconsistently in this series. He hasn't gotten his shots from the outside, and he did make a couple of amazing drives in Game One, but those were absent in the second game. He can't be frustrated because of all those missed shots, they will eventually fall. He just needs to keep his head in the game, shoot when open, and if he gets his groove on, defense will collapse on his every pump fake that will open opportunities for him to drive to the hole. 

JR Quinahan
As good as he played in Game Two on the offensive end, he still is way too slow on defense to match up against the agile big men of TNT. I think it would be best to keep him on the bench unless TNT fields a player he can guard, say Ali Peek or John Ferriols. He got his range in Game Two, so that should be a morale booster for himself. He can't lose a hundred pounds before the end of the series, so might as well make good on what he has and just put in a little more effort in recovering on defense. Ranidel is eating him alive.

Team Offense

The three pointer has been a major weapon for Rain or Shine, but they can't bury their outside shots during this Finals series. They have found success on their halfcourt sets with crisp passing when they are playing calm, but lose control as soon as they get the game close. Thay've had point blank shots that just don't go in, and almost and-one plays that rolls off the rim. They space themselves out too much, allowing TNT to close down the middle for the boards, eliminating their second chance points opportunities, which was the defining stat that got them past San Mig Coffee. Communication will be important for them, as they can't all be at the three point line waiting for the slasher to kick it out to them. While the bigs can stay out to stretch the help defense, maybe a the wings can slice through the D to get ready for those boards.

Team Defense

As much as three pointers have won them games, it is also killing them now as TNT has been deadly outside. Larry Fonacier stopped the late RoS rally in Game One with a three. Ranidel De Ocampo and Kelly Williams hit shots to end the third quarter of Game Two to quickly destroy RoS' momentum after they briefly grabbed a 4-point lead. Rotation would be key, and they need to work on switching off pick and rolls. They either leave the roller or the ball handler open when the ball handler steps back after using the pick. This results in either an open three or an open lane in the middle. Although Ranidel and Jason Castro can't seem to be defended, they just need to close down the lane by switching on picks, and committing to a double team on the trap instead of just teasing the ball handler then scrambling back on defense for the screener left open.

Defensive Player Matchup

Ryan Arana/Jireh Ibanez on Jason Castro
Castro can't be stopped, but he might be limited or frustrated. Arana and Ibanez can do that to him if they are granted the assignment of going exclusive on him. They need to always go over screens to be able to stick to him.

Paul Lee/Chris Tiu/TY Tang on Jimmy Alapag/Ryan Reyes
These players don't have the legs to keep up with Castro. In the case of Lee, he has the bulk to match up against the similarly physical Ryan Reyes and enough speed to keep in step with Jimmy Alapag. Tiu and Tang may not be the fastest or strongest players on the court, but they do have the smarts to know how to play either Alapag or Reyes.

Gabe Norwood/Jeff Chan on Jared Dillinger/Larry Fonacier
Norwood's athleticism can match up to Dillinger's and his length can disrupt Fonacier's shots. Chan has been pretty sneaky with his defensive skills, and can stay in front of Dillinger and Fonacier with his length.

Jervy Cruz/Ronnie Matias/Beau Belga on Ranidel De Ocampo/Harvey Carey/Aaron Aban/Kelly Williams
The agile big men of Rain or Shine against the versatile forwards of Talk N' Text. Jervy, Ronnie, and Beau need to remember that they are guarding big men that can shoot outside, so they can't just leave them wide open. If they do, they at least have the mobility to scramble back on defense.

JR Quinahan/Larry Rodriguez on Ali Peek
Quinahan is slow, while Larry isn't the most agile big man in the RoS rotation. They can't be assigned to guard the earlier batch of players because they're just too slow for them. Peek won't stretch their defense too much, and though they can't underestimate his range, he won't ask for the ball too far away from the basket to prevent them from getting position for rebounds.

Climbing out of a 0-2 hole is not impossible, but they won't win any games if they can't believe that they can actually pull this off.