...Finishing Second: A Fan's Look at Rain Or Shine's All-Filipino Cup Run...

The PBA's first conference ended with the San Mig Coffee Mixers raising their second consecutive trophy (at least chronologically) after defeating the Rain Or Shine Elastopainters last Wednesday. 

Truth be told, I am disappointed. I was confident we'd go through Petron in the semis, and even brashly proclaimed that whoever wins in the SMC-BGK series was only playing for second place. And now, here we are, second place. The better team won.

I admit defeat, but I don't regret even the slightest bit that I made such a bold proclamation. I believe in the teams I cheer for, and have lost a bit of cash putting my money where my mouth was when someone called me out. I stopped doing it slightly because I think I've lost too much, but mostly because no one really steps up for their teams anymore. People can be all talk but can't even bet a slap on the face (I've literally bet on face slaps).

Now, I have no excuses, just a commentary on why we lost, why I thought we could beat such a powerhouse, and a tribute to the other team I cheered for before pledging allegiance to Rain Or Shine. 

*all images from Google, sites credited for those without watermark.

Rain or Shine Key Points

The Rotation

Different heroes every game. Doesn't need a huge crowd to get them back in a game down big.
*Image from Rain Or Shine Elasto Painters Family Facebook page 

One of the biggest strengths of the Elastopainters is their rotation. Unlike superstar teams of the NBA where there are 3-4 guys and  bunch of other guys, RoS trots a lineup pretty much like the Detroit Pistons of 2004. There aren't legit superstars who need to be on the floor for 40 minutes. What they have are a collection of basketball players who know their roles and are all in on what the Coach says. They don't have egoistic players who demand for trades because they don't get on the floor or they don't touch the ball too often. This is the reason why I love this team. 

However, this strength can only get a team so far. The superstars get their numbers precisely because they have the minutes on the floor to work on it. By spreading minutes, Rain or Shine overcomes fatigue, but they can't get a particular player going. True, the 12-man rotation can mess up an opponent's read on both offense and defense, but on the flipside, our players are getting messed up as well. It almost becomes a prerequisite then that once called to action, a RoS player must be hot and effective on D right away. You can do that in the regular season, but the playoffs is a whole different story. 

RoS won on a short rotation in Game 5, but it didn't produce the same result in Game 6. I think one of the reasons is putting the wrong people in too long. Ian Sanggalang scored like Jeff Chan was a lamp post before they decided to switch Paul Lee on him. Lee, for his part, let his men cut inside (as he's done throughout the series) while he's trying to help double on the post up. Larry Rodriguez, for all his gulang, wasn't effectively contributing on the boards as he usually did but was put in for a longer stretch than Jervy Cruz. I guess a better understanding of the players' strengths and weaknesses could help the coaching staff determine the most effective use of that shortened rotation. 

Up to Game 4 of the series, they magnified those strengths to their advantage. Against a bench tactician like Tim Cone, those "strengths" became one-dimensional skills. Think of it this way; Jeff Chan is a good shooter, but actually improved his slashing and even last year, knew when to pass the ball. With a long rotation, Chan came off the bench to provide bench scoring power. He was basically put in to shoot the ball because there were others who could concentrate on doing everything else. TY Tang was there for passing, Alex Nuyles could be the slasher, Jeric Teng could be an outside gunner, etc.. The regular season showed that this was effective because he shot about 40% from the field. In the Finals, his shooting clip suffered a lot because SMC made him work on defense, at the post no less. 

Put simply, they relied on their depth so that they could focus on what they were good at, but couldn't adjust when they were shut down. Faced with desperation, they forced their ways to get themselves going, and the Mixers pounced on them. Their system worked wonderfully in keeping them fresh while winning in the regular season, but it took a dynamic system from a brilliant coach to beat them. 

Outside Shooting

Chan just couldn't get his game going.

The Elastopainters have great shooters. In fact, outside shooting is such a good trait of the team that they have Raymond Almazan actually believing that he can hit it on a regular basis. 

It has blown out opponents and saved the Painters countless times. However, against the Mixers, they just wouldn't go in. Paul Lee's two attempts in one possession with about a minute to go in the 4th quarter of Game 6 probably best exemplified how their shooting throughout the series has been. He had an open look, and then again a Paul Lee-signature stepback three but it just didn't fall. SMC's defense was great, but I can't fully credit it for RoS missing those long bombs; we got the looks we wanted, they just didn't go in. 

Speaking of the SMC defense, it forced RoS to shoot from the outside quite a few times, but it wasn't the sole reason for RoS opting for threes. We had a lot of looks early in the shot clock that were made so that there would be an open shooter. Again, the shots just did not fall for us.

Defense

No jumps, just keeping their feet on the ground.
*image from gmanetwork.com

Rain or Shine is known best for its defense and I almost find it funny that this is despite not having a lot of players who are able to jump up to block shots. The "Never Say Diet" team gets stops despite not blocking ala-DeAndre Jordan. Guarding passing lanes and trapping are two of the best ways for RoS to get their transition game going. One on one, we have Gabe Norwood, Jireh Ibanez, and Ryan Arana as our best defenders. 

This was exploited by SMC the most. With such a stacked team, there were going to have mismatches just about everywhere. They had Norwood or Ibanez play either Simon, Yap, or Barroca, but that left everyone else to do their thing. I mentioned Sanggalang earlier. Yap, Simon, and Devance all had their turn cutting to the basket if they had Paul Lee guarding them from the outside. At the post though, Sanggalang and Devance had to work for their points against Lee. Chan, for his part, got beaten up so bad at the post that he barely had enough air to run around to get space on offense. 

Team defense works so well for RoS, but the excellent floor spacing by the Mixers prevented RoS from helping. The team needs to learn how to adjust on the fly if they are forced to play one on one defense, and they need to be more comfortable with the tendencies of their teammates and opponents so that they can fill their weaknesses on defense. 

The Walkout

That awkward moment, when you make a dramatic walkout, and the stupid door is still locked.

The crowd at the Big Dome roared in disbelief, while the supporters were in a state of shock. It was unorthodox, and I probably wouldn't do it myself. However, stand by Coach Yeng's decision to do it. Despite in-game and post-game comments, the refs are still drawn to who the crowd favors. Ginebra gets a break from these whistles 8/10 times. SMC played through it and beat them handily in Game 7. RoS couldn't do it, and felt their pleas fell to deaf ears.

If I were on the other side of the fence, I'd say all the same shit the SMC fans are throwing at RoS for the walkout. It's totally understandable. But being on this side, I'd throw my own thousand pesos if RoS needed a fund for the fine. I don't know how else I'd make a statement stronger than that.

It had somewhat of an effect; the refs weren't calling the "pwet-box out" as I call it about three plays after that. Then they went back to calling it. Not saying they shouldn't altogether, all I'm saying is, call it if it's not allowed. Don't let it go and then at the crucial moments blow the whistle every single time. RoS will play the Gulang card on defense, and it's up to the refs what type of contact they will allow. Playoff basketball demands more physical play. The refs don't need to call college fouls in a playoff series. 

Fighting to the End

It's the passion for the game that made me love this team. Sometimes though, emotions get the better of Coach.
*Image from inquirer.net

Ryan Arana said in an interview after the Game 5 win that Coach Yeng threatened them that if he saw anyone seemingly give up, "tatapusin ko ang career nyo dito". Everyone played with more desperation than ever in that game. 

Bets aside, I don't lose faith in my team unless we're down 10 with under 24 seconds left in the game. I don't switch channels to wait if my team can come back, I watch every second of the 4th to see how they will. It's one of the things I love about the team. 

In Game 4 though, there were so many moments when I saw the team give up. I wanted to believe we could cut it down to 7, and at one point, we did. However, with every made basket by the Mixers, they sulked. With every missed shot, they bowed their heads instead of trying to get the loose ball. They gave up like they didn't before. 

In Game 6, Jireh played like he'll die for the ball as he always did. Ryan played like he didn't have a shoulder injury (until falling on the floor made him remember he did). Gabe only stopped defending when the ball went through the hoop already. But then there are moments when you see Larry Rodriguez bowing his head after missing a shot instead of looking at where the ball is (which was tapped to someone right behind Rodriguez). Then Coach Yeng just totally lost it when he was in the ref's passing lane for the inbound. That was a dagger more painful than Barroca's three over Gabe. 

We lose because we gave up. Refs calls be damned, we shouldn't have let them take us out of the game. SMC did it by beating the living hell out of the Gin Kings in Game 7 because that's how you beat teams favored by refs; you hit your shots. 

A Shoutout to the Mixers

The Scoring Apostle

The only way to defend Simon is pray that he won't make the shot.

Truthfully, even in my previous blog, Simon is that one guy from SMC that I fear the most on offense. He doesn't need a million moves to beat you; he'll just need you to give him enough breathing room and he'll hit the shot. It wouldn't matter if he's open or not, he will hit a shot.

He's had cold nights but if he gets his shot going, there's no telling when he'll stop. Peter June Simon was one of the players I loved watching in the PBA and was one of the reasons why I stayed loyal to Alvin Patrimonio's squad until I got pissed with Ryan Gregorio and the team letting go of talents such as Paul Artadi (to BGK at the time) and Ping (to Magnolia, I think, at the time). Now it's difficult to root against him because of all the things he brings to the table. 

The Heart of Offense and Defense

Them boys know how to work their team up.
*Image from ph.sports.yahoo.com

Speaking of people difficult to root against, how about the heart of SMC's offense and defense; Mark Andy Barroca and Jean-Marc Pingris, respectively. Barroca comes off the bench and finishes the game much like Manu Ginobili of the Spurs. He's an unfair bench guy who should automatically take home the 6th Man of the Year award every single year he doesn't win an MVP title. I think he's already the best two-way guard in the PBA today, right up there with Jason Castro. 

On defense, is there any doubt that Pingris is the heart that keeps pumping life to that SMC defense? He's an undersized PF in international competitions, but in the Philippines, he is arguably the best player at the post. He's no longer the offensive liability that he was early in his career with his newfound weapon which I'd almost accuse SMC to be teaching all their players; that one-hander in the lane seems to be a staple for every one on their team. 

Players can't catch up to Barroca and they can't shake Pingris off. Either one of them deserved the MVP trophy for putting the team on their shoulders.

James Yap

Jireh messed up James the first time they met in the Finals. James was having none of it this series.

I've been critical of James Yap because he failed to deliver every single time I counted on him. I rooted for his UE Red Warriors before I went to UST. I was excited that he had Paul Artadi as his running mate again in Purefoods. I rooted for him to win that championship they didn't get while playing for UE and it took me years before they actually won one, and I don't even think Artadi was there. 

This season, like the past couple of seasons, James wasn't hitting his shots. He was all hype with no game left to speak of. I actually wanted James to shut me up in I think Game 3 or 4 of the BGK series. He failed to deliver again. 

Then there was Game 5 of that series when he finally delivered. You could call it a fluke, but he hit some pretty big shots in Game 6 before the refs bailed Ginebra out with a petty foul on Yap to Caguioa. In Game 7, he just went wild. 

I thought he'd be shooting blanks already by the Finals, but he had that push in him to hit big shots to either stretch leads or bring them back. This was a James Yap series that I wished to have seen when I was cheering for them. 

The Other Guys

Alex "The Project" Mallari is a Tim Cone favorite as a big ball handler

Rain or Shine is considered deep, but that's because Coach Yeng utilizes everyone on the bench with some of his hugot tactics. Teams under SMC are known to be really stacked with big names. Anything short of championships are disappointments for Ginebra, Petron, and San Mig Coffee. It was on full display in this Finals series, and even in the season.

Ginebra had a pseudo-coach always making his opinions on timeouts despite a head coach already holding the board. Petron has a collection of stars who can't buy in to what the coach is preaching because they haven't had a coach that lasted a full three conferences over the past couple of years. When then-BMeg got Coach Tim Cone, he was given a full reign on the team, and he was able to build the team he wanted (Alex Mallari yow!) and incorporate a system in such a way that it isn't player-dependent. 

Having said that, SMC still had the capacity to sign big name players into this iron clad system of Coach Tim. The butt of my jokes has been Alex Mallari, a former third overall pick in the draft. He played a couple of good games. They have guys like Ian Sanggalang who's underrated only because no one watches the NCAA and Greg Slaughter commanded such great attention. If it wasn't Raymond, I would've loved to have Ian in RoS just so he could play with Pampanga's own Coach Yeng. Joe Devance, who I usually call "Boy Fancy Pass" is a mismatch nightmare. The bigs can't keep up with him, and the guards can't cover his size. When he's not trying too much, he knows how to make the right plays and can shoot from just about anywhere on the court. Justin Melton was a revelation late in the season. He's an athletic guy who can carry the ball and shoot from a distance, but has the tendency to dribble too much. He reminds me of Shannon Brown of the Lakers. Rafi Reavis can get way up for boards. Yancy De Ocampo is a crafty post player. 

See, no matter how deep their lineup is, Coach Tim has about 8 guys he'd play this deep in the postseason, but every once in a while he could turn someone like Jerwin Gaco into more than just a punchline. With an expansion team coming in, wouldn't it be nice to know that there's a team like SMC who will not be able to protect some of these other guys and may have a chance to shine  elsewhere? 

Tim Cone

Just passed Coach Baby Dalupan's record. Nice to see what looks like an unbeatable record broken in my lifetime.
*Image from untvweb.com

What else can be said about the winningest coach of all time? When faced with the choice between Ginebra or Alaska back in the 90's, I've always went with Tim Cone's Milkmen. In the time when the league was ultra-competitive with teams not hoarding talent for themselves, Alaska was one of the teams I admired because of how well they moved together as a team. Ginebra was a popular choice, what with players and their "Never Say Die" attitude back then, but it was more of will. The Milkmen played in some kind of order I never would have understood as a kid just learning the game. 

It was effective 20 years ago (gahd, I'm old), and it remains effective now. It's not because it is unbeatable, it's because Coach Tim has made a dynamic system that he could call his own. Over the years of learning the game while coaching on the sidelines, he's made subtle changes to make sure that the system isn't completely broken. 

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The next conference starts on Wednesday, March 5, and I'm excited about it again. Some trades in the offseason and our beloved Coach Pido will finally call the shots for his own team in the PBA. It's a great time to be a fan of the PBA right now.

...Not an Open Letter from a RoS Fan: Scouting the Mixers...

The San Mig Super Coffee Mixers and the Barangay Ginebra Gin Kings figured in an epic seven-game series, which the Mixers won last Wednesday to set up a date with the Rain or Shine Elastopainters for the Finals of this All-Filipino Conference. This is the nth time Coach Tim Cone will be in a Finals series, while the young Elastopainters will figure in just their third Finals appearance.

I am a basketball fan, and I enjoyed the SMC-BGK series immensely, despite not rooting for anyone in particular. However, as a fan that (at least I'd like to believe) has an above-average understanding of the game, I have grown to love the way that Rain or Shine plays the game. I have been rooting for Rain or Shine since they traded away Sol Mercado; the same time they got the outspoken Coach Yeng Guiao to take the helm for their team. Coach Yeng just made lineups work. He was leading the Red Bull franchise to multiple playoff and finals appearances despite management constantly trading away his main guys. I'd hate to say "the team plays with heart" because I have conceded that UST concept to Gilas. RoS just plays hard and does not give up. In a word, "palaban". The team doesn't care if it's down 16 heading to the fourth quarter, and they don't need a whole arena chanting their name to make a run. The team is bigger than any individual player. Gabe Norwood is arguably the biggest name in terms of basketball, and Chris Tiu may be the biggest name in the team in general, but both concede their roles to whoever Coach Yeng says.

And now, here we are again, no import to reinforce both sides, no political campaigns to worry about. Rain Or Shine is back in the Finals. I have little doubt in my mind that we will take this series. Since I won't be able to watch the first game tomorrow, I leave this as my contribution to the team. Here is how I see our opponents:

*NOTE: All photos from Google. Not taking credit for any of it. I note those without watermarks.

Backcourt:

Mark Barroca

Size doesn't matter for Barroca
*Photo from Inquirer Sports

When You See Him: A little before the end of the first quarter or starts the second quarter. Depending on the flow of the game, he'll be in the middle of the third until the end of the game, with a brief spell in the break or he'll sit out for a hotter player on the court.

Strengths: Speed, playmaking, and pesky defense. Knows how to use the board or his body when going up against big guys down the lane.

Weaknesses: Sometimes gets a little too eager getting the ball and gets called for petty fouls. Blocking the passing lanes late will throw him off; he has a tendency to look for the pass before setting his feet,making him susceptible to traps.

Stop Him With: Jireh Ibanez, Gabe Norwood either on him or to his favorite target. Paul Lee may not be able to keep up with him on a footrace. TY Tang will get called for fouls because he's not much of a star as Barroca is. Jeric Teng might be pulled out by Coach Yeng to handle this assignment from time to time. Chris Tiu is a candidate if only because he's a good basketball sense in him to figure something out. Ryan Arana will mess him up good. Yes, safe to say, I want just about everyone thrown at Barroca. Stopping  Barroca is key for RoS; he may not be what LA is to Ginebra, but his teammates feed off his energy as much as they do off Pingris.

PJ Simon

That's not an awkward shot for him at all.

When You See Him: Starting the game, mostly spelled by either Melton, Barroca, and for some reason, Mallari.

Strengths: A wild hot streak. When he's on, he is on. Almost automatic from three when he's free, has a midrange shot, and has that incredible floater.

Weaknesses: Off nights. It's sad but that's one of the primary ways he could be stopped. However, if his hop step in the lane is timed right for a defender to be right in front of him as he's about to take that floater, he usually hesitates and looks for the pass. Take that floater away, and he loses most of his offense, not allowing him to wax hot.

Stop Him With: Jireh Ibanez and Gabe Norwood are RoS' best defenders, and Simon being one of the best offensive weapons of SMC, it is only fitting one of these guys be on him.

Justin Melton

He's 5-11, can do that and more.

When You See Him: Spelling for the starters, usually in tandem with Barroca. He's mostly seen on the front end of an Ian Sanggalang basket.

Strengths: Athletic, has nice handles, can shoot from the outside and has a nice defensive awareness. Height is no reason for him to not block shots.

Weaknesses: Being young, he's sometimes swayed by the crowd to do something more than what he's capable off. He also sometimes gets too flashy dribbling or passing the ball.

Stop Him With: Paul Lee and Ryan Arana will make this kid regret his flashiness. Alex Nuyles will one-up him on those athletic plays.

Alex Mallari

Not a point.. Yet? Coach Tim will tell.

When You See Him: Start or mid second, when everyone needs a rest. Coach Tim likes his ball handlers tall, and Alex is one of his favorites despite not being too effective on the floor. He's either bricking shots, making dumb plays, or taking a free throw after the refs save his ass.

Strengths: Long and athletic, has slightly above average ball handling, has some mid to long range shots.

Weaknesses: Not too creative of a finisher, isn't consistent with his jump shot, is being experimented on to be a tall Magic-type point guard in the Triangle.

Stop Him With: Anyone not tasked to guard the main guys. I may be underestimating him, but unless he shows he's capable of doing what is expected of him, he doesn't warrant too much attention on defense. Jeff Chan and Paul Lee can take turns resting while marking him. Chris Tiu can out-Pogi him any day.

Swingmen:

James Yap

Will the shots fall as it did in Game 7?

When You See Him: Shooting bricks when Kris Aquino isn't wishing him good luck. He starts and is plugged in when the Mixers need some offensive firepower.

Strengths: Strong presence on the court that draws defenders, not-a-million moves, exceptional shooting (when hot), good timing on rebounds

Weaknesses: Defense (though that has improved a bit over the years), cold spells, almost-predictable moves (always starts with a jab step or a head fake when he gets it facing the basket; at least one fake on the post before dribbling twice for a spinning fadeaway)

Stop Him With: Jeff Chan, Alex Nuyles, Ryan Arana, or Jireh Ibanez when he needs a rest. His shots will fall if he's hot, and no amount of defense can stop that. He just needs to be bothered, with people needing to front him. If he gets it from the elbow, he usually drives towards the basket than choosing the baseline.


Joe Devance

He can pass from everywhere. Expect it to be flashy.
*Photo from Rappler

When You See Him: Starting, getting most minutes in the middle of quarters (someone else starts and finishes the quarters for him after the first quarter).

Strengths: Size and agility that's almost unfair because he can shoot from the outside. Has nice court awareness to know where his teammates are to find them where they need the ball.

Weaknesses: Tries to be a guard a little too much sometimes. He'll opt for a fancy pass rather than just doing the right play. Has a volatile temper that can be abused by playing him physically. I'm calling for at least three techs on him if this series goes seven games.

Stop Him With: Gabe Norwood in a normal lineup featuring two other guards (Lee, Arana), and agile bigs like Raymond Almazan and Jervy Cruz in a big lineup featuring both Extra Rice boys. Beau Belga and Larry Rodriguez can try to mark him if Almazan is tasked to man the middle as a weakside defender.

Frontcourt:

Marc Pingris

This shot has been money for Ping.
*Photo from Interaksyon.com

When You See Him: Everywhere. Blocking, rebounding, doing his version of the bicep shot, scrambling on the floor, and guarding practically everyone on the opposing team.

Strengths: Boundless energy, impeccable timing on rebounds, excellent defender, an improved one-handed jumper, a strong post up game.

Weaknesses: I have no words. Fouls, probably, because he plays too physical. Dribbling, probably.

Stop Him With: Any able body. The Extra Rice boys won't be pushed around if he goes for a post up, but they won't be able to jump up and block his one-handers. Almazan WILL be pushed around, so the only way he'll be effective against Ping is if he stays as a help defender. Jervy might be able to defend him on the floor, but won't be able to contain him if he posts up. Rodriguez is two gulang points up from Ping; if he can't defend him, he might fish a foul from him.

Ian Sanggalang

Gained a lot of confidence going up against Ginebra in 7 games

When You See Him: Mid to late first quarter, some stretches in the second and third, and if he's hot, he'll earn some for the fourth. He's usually on the receiving end of a Melton pass.

Strengths: Size advantage over the RoS big men, agile, has a midrange game, smart defender, long, and athletic.

Weaknesses: As a rookie, he hasn't shown some of the skills he did back in college; he's not much of a shot blocker now, and he's staying away from three point shots. He's easily rattled if he's too wide open.

Stop Him With: Extra Rice boys and Larry Rodriguez. I'm afraid that if Almazan picks him up, he reverts to his Baste form. RoS doesn't want him to gain confidence. I would've loved him to be on our team.

Rafi Reavis

Like Ping, he's agile enough to guard players smaller than him
*photo from Yahoo Sports Ph

When You See Him: Tapping missed free throws away from the rim. He usually starts the game for the Mixers, but is replaced by more capable scorers when they need it. He'll be in for crucial possessions where they need a rebound or a defensive stop.

Strengths: Long, agile, and athletic, the guy knows how to make use of his body and skills to the fullest. He doesn't score much (his hot Game 7 start isn't something you see everyday), because he understands his role in the team. High leaper, can get up to block shots or grab boards.

Weaknesses: Limited offensive game, mostly gets his points off offensive rebounds.

Stop Him With: Raymond Almazan, Beau Belga, Jervy Cruz. The bigs just need to keep an eye on him and box him out. He's not an option on offense, but can hurt RoS with putbacks and offensive boards.

Yancy De Ocampo

A distributor off the post.

When You See Him: When bigs are in foul trouble, or if  none of the big guards are not too effective in spreading out the floor.

Strengths: Veteran smarts, post passing

Weaknesses: Not too agile. He's generally an effective PF.

Stop Him With: Larry Rodriguez. Counter veteran smarts with another veteran.

Most Likely Effective Hugot:

JR Cawaling 

Not much pictures of him in an SMC uniform, but he's a steal at the end of the SMC bench

I honestly don't know if he saw minutes in the Ginebra series, but l think he's the best talent in the San Mig bench that isn't given enough minutes. I think he's a smart basketball player with better handles than Alex Mallari. Mallari looks to be more athletic than Cawaling, but the latter has a better mid to outside jumper and better ball handling skills. He could be a blindside pick by the Mixers.

...A Hole Not So Deep: A Perspective on Rain Or Shine...

I can't remember the last time when I followed a team in the PBA as much as I have followed Rain Or Shine over the past few years. I've seen the team grow from the Jojo Tangkay, Jun-Jun Cabatu, and Jay-R Reyes-anchored  inaugural team of Welcoat Dragons to a revamped and renamed squad headlined by the athletic duo of Gabe Norwood and Sol Mercado, to the spunky squad that they are now under Coach Yeng. It pains me that they are down 0-2, and though Talk N' Text is playing amazing ball, I still believe that they are not invincible.

Let me claim now that I am not an expert, nor am I a professional baller to be legitimately considered as an authority on the matter. I express opinion as a basketball fan and a Rain or Shine fan to offer my two cents. Feel free to discuss, but personally, here are my thoughts on (fielded) players and adjustments:

Guards

Ryan Arana 

Jaworski-lite is playing his game, but still isn't translating to wins. He's always there on rebound plays, can get to the rim on sneaky moves, can defend, has an outside shot, and was actually playing PG for Coach Yeng. Maybe Coach needs to play him more?

Paul Lee 

Looks like the best player on the court for Rain or Shine at times, but takes ill-advised decisions in at the wrong time. A bad jumper here and there, and dazzling moves that end with a shot that's high off the board. Nerves? Sell out? The team needs him to channel his inner Cobra Commander and not some fat kid who took too much Appeton to bulk up.

Chris Tiu

Always been a winner, and looks like he's getting good shots up, just not converting them. I guess he needs to Tiu-torize himself more on picking his shots. He's shooting horribly from three, but he seems to be taking a lot of it. Worst play in so far is his awesome pass to Jimmy Alapag during the crucial moments of Game One.  Other than that, his shots just aren't falling. It'll probably get better, but he needs to be patient with it. 

Gabe Norwood

Plays the point at times for the team. He's been tentative in Game One, but looked to attack in Game Two. Still, he's throwing up threes like he was Ray Allen or something. He's Gabe freakin Norwood, the athletic beast who was jumping all over opponents during his National Club stint, playing like a skinny LeBron James without a jumper. He needs to be more aggressive in the sense that he wants to rip that rim off and not take those turnaround fadeaway jumpers. He has the tools to destroy just about any defender thrown at him, but he needs to make use of them.

Jeff Chan

In a team of no superstars, Jeff Chan is one of the guys on the team that's close to legit superstar status. He's trying to play like it, but he's just ice cold from the field. He's a shooter who's added some slashing to his repertoire, but he's still not that good of a ball handler. He needs to lessen his one on one's unless there's sure to be help, and he needs to stop focusing on selling calls because there's a big chance that those whistles aren't going to go his way. 

Jireh Ibanez 

The captain and arguably the best defender of the team hasn't been able to stop anyone. It is perfectly understandable because TNT is basically a mirror-image of their team, as they have multiple weapons on offense. While his scrappiness and desire are unquestionable, one of his weak points is finishing at the rim. He has the tendency to try and do a little too much by driving to the basket recklessly and forcing shots in. He needs to calm down, understand that he can't take everyone one on one even at the post. He's also the fastest guys on the break, but he tends to force it even if the defense already recovered. 

TY Tang

Quality minutes in his appearance in Game Two, but won't be able to keep in step with Castro or Jimmy on defense. He calms the offense down and knows how to pick his spots. I don't see him getting extended minutes, but he just needs to keep playing his game when called upon. 

Forwards

Ronnie Matias

Plays like he's on an And1 Streetball challenge at times. Most amazing play so far would have to be that drive in the second half of Game Two where he split 4 defenders on a coast to coast. His outside shot hasn't been effective (as is everyone else's), and though he can create his own shots, he tends to force it as well. He needs to play the Matias game we've been accustomed to: gritty defense and scoring through offensive boards. Three point shooting should be secondary, even if he has been confident about it. And don't be too obvious on push offs. 

Larry Rodriguez

With the emergence of Jervy Cruz, Larry Rodriguez seems to have lost his confidence. He's been asking for the ball at the post, but he doesn't really do anything about it when he gets it. He's been tentative shooting the ball over the past two games, and when he does, he almost expects it to miss. If he can't shoot those mid range jumpers, he needs to just play his usual game of positioning for the rebound and getting his points via putbacks. He did that successfully over a stretch in the second quarter of Game Two that built his confidence up a bit.

Jervy Cruz
King Tiger truly is back. Still can't get over that spin move on Harvey Carey in Game One that brought me back to my UST days when we had that magical run for the championship. He's been aggressive on offense and has been relentless on the glass, but he's blowing some defensive assignments. He's tasked to guard either Ranidel De Ocampo, Harvey Carey, or Ali Peek, but usually is being switched to play against Jared Dillinger. Except for Ali, those are players who can shoot the ball from the perimeter on a consistent basis. While I love the fact that Jervy is playing below the rim on defense to be ready for those boards, he needs to keep an eye on RDO because he's killing RoS with his versatility. He needs to deny him the ball and must not allow him to get open looks for three, as that has been money for Ranidel. 

Centers

Beau Belga
Air Jollibee (as my favorite PBA Blog coined him) has been playing a bit inconsistently in this series. He hasn't gotten his shots from the outside, and he did make a couple of amazing drives in Game One, but those were absent in the second game. He can't be frustrated because of all those missed shots, they will eventually fall. He just needs to keep his head in the game, shoot when open, and if he gets his groove on, defense will collapse on his every pump fake that will open opportunities for him to drive to the hole. 

JR Quinahan
As good as he played in Game Two on the offensive end, he still is way too slow on defense to match up against the agile big men of TNT. I think it would be best to keep him on the bench unless TNT fields a player he can guard, say Ali Peek or John Ferriols. He got his range in Game Two, so that should be a morale booster for himself. He can't lose a hundred pounds before the end of the series, so might as well make good on what he has and just put in a little more effort in recovering on defense. Ranidel is eating him alive.

Team Offense

The three pointer has been a major weapon for Rain or Shine, but they can't bury their outside shots during this Finals series. They have found success on their halfcourt sets with crisp passing when they are playing calm, but lose control as soon as they get the game close. Thay've had point blank shots that just don't go in, and almost and-one plays that rolls off the rim. They space themselves out too much, allowing TNT to close down the middle for the boards, eliminating their second chance points opportunities, which was the defining stat that got them past San Mig Coffee. Communication will be important for them, as they can't all be at the three point line waiting for the slasher to kick it out to them. While the bigs can stay out to stretch the help defense, maybe a the wings can slice through the D to get ready for those boards.

Team Defense

As much as three pointers have won them games, it is also killing them now as TNT has been deadly outside. Larry Fonacier stopped the late RoS rally in Game One with a three. Ranidel De Ocampo and Kelly Williams hit shots to end the third quarter of Game Two to quickly destroy RoS' momentum after they briefly grabbed a 4-point lead. Rotation would be key, and they need to work on switching off pick and rolls. They either leave the roller or the ball handler open when the ball handler steps back after using the pick. This results in either an open three or an open lane in the middle. Although Ranidel and Jason Castro can't seem to be defended, they just need to close down the lane by switching on picks, and committing to a double team on the trap instead of just teasing the ball handler then scrambling back on defense for the screener left open.

Defensive Player Matchup

Ryan Arana/Jireh Ibanez on Jason Castro
Castro can't be stopped, but he might be limited or frustrated. Arana and Ibanez can do that to him if they are granted the assignment of going exclusive on him. They need to always go over screens to be able to stick to him.

Paul Lee/Chris Tiu/TY Tang on Jimmy Alapag/Ryan Reyes
These players don't have the legs to keep up with Castro. In the case of Lee, he has the bulk to match up against the similarly physical Ryan Reyes and enough speed to keep in step with Jimmy Alapag. Tiu and Tang may not be the fastest or strongest players on the court, but they do have the smarts to know how to play either Alapag or Reyes.

Gabe Norwood/Jeff Chan on Jared Dillinger/Larry Fonacier
Norwood's athleticism can match up to Dillinger's and his length can disrupt Fonacier's shots. Chan has been pretty sneaky with his defensive skills, and can stay in front of Dillinger and Fonacier with his length.

Jervy Cruz/Ronnie Matias/Beau Belga on Ranidel De Ocampo/Harvey Carey/Aaron Aban/Kelly Williams
The agile big men of Rain or Shine against the versatile forwards of Talk N' Text. Jervy, Ronnie, and Beau need to remember that they are guarding big men that can shoot outside, so they can't just leave them wide open. If they do, they at least have the mobility to scramble back on defense.

JR Quinahan/Larry Rodriguez on Ali Peek
Quinahan is slow, while Larry isn't the most agile big man in the RoS rotation. They can't be assigned to guard the earlier batch of players because they're just too slow for them. Peek won't stretch their defense too much, and though they can't underestimate his range, he won't ask for the ball too far away from the basket to prevent them from getting position for rebounds.

Climbing out of a 0-2 hole is not impossible, but they won't win any games if they can't believe that they can actually pull this off.