...The 2012 NBA Playoffs: The East...

The playoffs are finally less than a week away, and matchups are already set. Everyone will have they say on who’s going past who and I’m going to be one of those friends you have who’s going to throw my opinions out there.

So here goes, from the perspective of an odds and fantasy player for the 2011-2012 NBA season, my picks for the first round matchups of both conferences.

(1) Chicago Bulls vs (8) Philadelphia 76ers
(Chicago won regular season, 2-1)

Bulls:

They are one of the best teams in the NBA this season, winning with or without reigning league MVP Derrick Rose. They have an abundance of talent to make up for the loss of even their best player. They are a title favorite, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to give up an upset.

Sixers:

They had a good stretch during the start of the regular season, which propelled them to the upper half of the East standings. However, as the season progressed, their performance dipped as well, losing games they should be winning. Now they’re down to the 8^th spot in the East, and it’s probably their own fault. They still are a dangerous team and can pull off an upset against another team, probably, but not the Bulls.

What to watch out for: The “Bench Mob” vs The “Night Shift”

This is a matchup of 2 bench-heavy teams; the difference being Chicago having a solid starting 5 filled with all-stars Rose, Boozer, Hamilton and almost All-Stars Deng and Noah while the Sixers have Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala (has he ever been an All-Star?), which says a lot when comparing talent depth of both squads. With Rose not being in his best form, look for the Bulls to look to their bench to see how they can best compensate for the lost production from Rose. On the other side, look for Sixers to employ a heavy reliance on their bench more because of adjustments rather than keeping their starters fresh. The way that Sixers team has been playing all year, it doesn’t look like they consider their “starters” to be their best 5 on the floor.

Who to watch out for:

Taj Gibson is going to have a field day in this series. The Sixers don’t have much inside presence, and Gibson might be able to use that to his advantage by posting up or just crashing the boards.

Spencer Hawes is still not 100%, and may not be able to provide the numbers he gave his team at the start of the season, but Nikola Vucevic has played well filling up for him. Lou Williams might make his case to be starting point guard at some of the games as well, if he can pick up the defensive slack to complement his explosive offensive game.

Prediction: Chicago in 5

I think this has a sweep potential, but I won’t go that far. I think the Sixers will win at least one of their home games, catching the Bulls off-guard.

(2) Miami Heat vs (7) New York Knicks
(Miami won regular season, 3-0)

Heat:

They’re on their way to yet another successful season together, with LeBron playing for his 3^rd MVP plum, and the team gaining more chemistry as this is their second season together with the three stars. Norris Cole has been a nice surprise for the Heat; the rookie has provided a nice spark off the bench to give more stability at the point guard spot behind Mario Chalmers (like they still actually needed it). They’re still undersized at the center position, with Joel Anthony not given enough minutes because he’s an offensive liability and Udonis Haslem not really the big, bruising center they need.

Knicks:

Fans have forgiven the Knicks for a dismal close to last year’s campaign, thinking this year would be better with Anthony and Stoudemire having training camp together. Then they got Tyson Chandler, which got everyone buzzing as it suddenly transformed them to title contenders. Then the losses. Then Jeremy Lin explodes from nowhere. Then he goes down to injury. Talk about an up and down season for the Knicks. They made a nice push to get in to the playoffs despite their season struggles, and only time will tell if that’s enough to overcome the mighty Heat.

What to watch out for: LeBron vs Melo

As much of a Dwayne Wade fan I am, I think this series is a test for LeBron more than it is for Wade. Wade can close out games, no doubt. But the way that LeBron has been playing has earned him the right to call the Heat “his” team. To complete this process, LeBron needs to own his team by actually closing out. He can take over games to give them a chance to win, but at the end of the game, he doesn’t seem to want to take that last shot. If he can learn how to close out, it will only make the Heat more dangerous as teams would not know how to deny the last possession when they have to guard both LeBron and Wade.

Adversely, Melo has shown time and again that he can close games. However, he can’t seem to always will his team to win, as he tries to do a little too much at times. New York has offensive options that can help Melo out in cutting leads down; streaky JR Smith and sweet-shooting Steve Novak are there, Landry Fields has some shooting range as well, plus the inside presence of Amar’e and Tyson Chandler.

Whoever learns faster, LeBron closing or Melo sharing, could determine the fate of these two teams.

Who to watch out for:

Chris Bosh will be a major factor in this series, if he decides to play the bruising center that they need (a realization he had during the offseason), or he just plays his role effectively. Much of the attention will go to LeBron and Wade, so Bosh needs to prove why there are 3 stars in this team.

Baron Davis is a strong candidate for the most crucial player in the Knicks roster. They have ball hogs in Melo and Amar’e who want to create for themselves, but if there’s a point guard who will be able to take them to the right spots, it would make this team more efficient. Davis could be a ball hog himself, and he does have a strong offensive game, so enhancing his passing game would greatly benefit the Knicks. 

Prediction: Miami in 6

New York has the potential for an upset, especially if they wax hot. But I don’t think this is their year just yet. I’m looking at Miami to close out in the Garden, as stars usually bring their A-game there.

(3) Indiana Pacers vs (6) Orlando Magic
(Orlando won regular season, 3-1)

Pacers:

This team is an illustration of what a “streaky” team looks like. Their regular season win-loss record is filled with long win streaks, but had losing streaks as long as those win streaks were. Like all teams, they lost some players due to injuries, but didn’t have significant roster losses to explain their long losing streaks. However, this team still looks good, with Roy Hibbert blossoming into an All-Star, David West regaining his form, Danny Granger still leading the pack, Paul George just having an amazing season, and the backcourt rotation of Darren Collison and George Hill where you can’t go wrong whoever you choose. The late season acquisition of Leandro Barbosa is a brilliant move for the Pacers to infuse an offensive boost in their bench.

Magic:

I’d say this was a potential upset if Dwight Howard would still be able to play for this series. They do have the tools to compete, with Glen Davis filling in nicely for Howard offensively and on the boards, JJ Redick and Jason Richardson shooting nicely at the backcourt, Jameer Nelson picking his game up, and Ryan Anderson having a career year. However, without Dwight, they’re not the same team.

What to watch out for: Pacers Dominance

If there’s a playoff series that I think I can bet my arm on, it would be this matchup. The hustle and energy of the Magic can only get them so far; the Pacers have those hustle and energy guys too in Lou Amundson and Tyler Hansborough.

Who to watch out for:

George Hill is a player that got the coach rethinking his point guard rotation when his initial choice of starting point guard comes back from injury. It’s a good problem to have, really. With his length and defensive prowess, Hill may just showcase how good a player he is and get the nod for a starting spot despite the return of Darren Collison.

Jameer Nelson was selected as an All-Star reserve some years back, but injury prevented him from playing in that game. Without superstar Dwight Howard manning the middle and this team desperately looking for an identity, Nelson has to find his all-star form and lead this team to win.

Prediction: Pacers in 5

I would call sweep, but the Magic look like a gutsy bunch that could pull off at least one win.

(4) Boston Celtics vs (5) Atlanta Hawks 
(Boston won regular season, 2-1)

Celtics:

The aging big three look like they still have something left in the tank and at the same time, they have look to have a good young core with them. Despite the loss of Jeff Green for the season due to a heart surgery, they did have nice revelations in their rookies Avery Bradley and Greg Stiemsma. Bradley has given them a lift on both ends of the floor when called on, and Stiemsma has been a shot blocking machine. The return of Marquis Daniels will also help the cause of the Celtics. Brandon Bass has been pretty solid for them but I think it would be more beneficial for him to move to the bench in favor of a center to play alongside Garnett, so that the Big Ticket can play his natural PF position rather than play as a center or for Bass to play undersized.

Hawks:

What started out as a great season for the Hawks went back down to being another mediocre season when Al Horford went down. If Horford does indeed return for the Hawks in the postseason, it will only improve their chances of advancing to the second round. Zaza Pachulia, who has been playing well to fill in for Horford, is also set to return, which will make the team formidable. They already have a strong backcourt with the improved Jeff Teague, the steady Kirk Hinrich, and the sharpshooting Joe Johnson. Marvin Williams has played his role nicely as the wing man, and rookie Ivan Johnson has shown skills and energy on both ends of the floor.

What to watch out for: Tradition against Promise

The Celtics has a winning tradition and a group of guys who understand and live by this tradition. The Hawks have a promising future ahead of them, with current players not even on their prime and already playing well. This will be a close series to call, with the Hawks trying to get over the hump by beating a Celtics team whose core has already won a championship.

Who to watch out for:

For Boston, there won’t be any surprises. Marquis Daniels might provide a spark off the bench, Sasha Pavlovic might have his moments, but for the most part, this is going to be where Paul Pierce will take over. Rajon Rondo’s brilliance have people buzzing over how he may be taking the torch even before the Big 3’s time is over, but I think Paul Pierce will step up to show the basketball world that this is still his time, their time.

Atlanta’s Josh Smith will need to get his head in the game if they want to win. His contributions show up in the stat sheet, but for the most part, he plays erratically and wants the ball when he doesn’t need to have it in his hands. He needs to crash the boards on both ends, and don’t try too much on the offense, because they have good players who can get him the ball on places where he can score.

Prediction: Boston in 7

Not a dig on the talent level of Boston, but more on respecting the Hawks’s ability to match up well against the Celtics. This could be over in 5 games, with the Hawks stealing one in Boston and the Celtics winning the rest of the games, but I’m leaning more on the possibility that this will be a home and home series, with no team giving up their homecourt advantage.

...The Playoffs 2011: The East...

It's that time of the season again, where the top 16 teams separate themselves from the rest of the pack, and slug it out for the biggest prize in the league: the NBA Championship. I give annual predictions for the playoffs, and I think I have a pretty decent positive percentage. These predictions earn me nothing, and this writing this does me no good. But I just like the feeling of being right and actually having proof that I was.=)) 

This year, with all the Fantasy Basketball knowledge that I have, I can give a more in-depth analysis on my predictions and not just base it on stats. I have also decided to make predictions per round, if in case I get some predictions wrong. For the time being, the West seedings are still a bit blurry for me, but at least I got to finish The East already. 

(1) Chicago Bulls vs (8) Indiana Pacers

Roster:
INDIANA         CHICAGO

G Darren Collison                                            PG Derrick Rose
G Paul George                                                SG Ronnie Brewer
F Danny Granger                                             SF Luol Deng
PF Tyler Hansborough                                      PF Carlos Boozer
C Roy Hibbert                                                   C  Joakim Noah

The Bench

G Tj Ford                                                          C Omer Asik
C Jeff Foster                                                   SG Keith Bogans
G/F Mike Dunleavy                                         G/F Rasual Butler
G Dahntay Jones                                               F Taj Gibson
C Solomon Jones                                           G/F Kyle Korver
F Josh McRoberts                                             G John Lucas III
G/F James Posey                                             G Jannero Pargo
G A.J. Price                                                   F/C Brian Scalabrine
G/F Brandon Rush                                          F/C Kurt Thomas
G Lance Stephenson                                         G C.J. Watson

Key Players: Derrick Rose, Danny Granger

Watch out for: Bench players on both teams

Season series: Chicago won, 3-1

How the roster stacks up:

Derrick Rose is playing an incredible season. Sure the Spurs have played well throughout the season, but the Bulls have been just as good after a slow start. Unlike last year when there were debates flaring out about who the MVP was, this season, Rose has emerged as the heavy favorite, with no one close to even try and take that away from him (except Dwight Howard, of course). They are virtually an unstoppable team, with the 2 spot being the only apparent weakness. And to think they can fill that out with defensive specialist Ronnie Brewer, bench sparkplug C.J. Watson, sharpshooter Kyle Korver, and veteran starter Keith Bogans. Old reliable Jannero Pargo can also fill that spot up. Taj Gibson and Omer Asik won’t do much scoring but will definitely make offensive players work for their shots, and rebounding can be a bitch with those two manning the paint. Brian Scalabrine and Kurt Thomas give veteran presence when they are called. 

Indiana, for its part, is one of the few teams in the league that can go 15-deep in their lineup. Though not as talented as 8-deep lineups, they have an infinite number of combinations they can use. Tyler Hansborough and Josh McRoberts have shown great improvements this season. If Roy Hibbert can stay out of foul trouble and regain his dominant form at the start of the season before getting injured, he surely would be a force to reckon with inside. Rookie Paul George has shown flashes of brilliance to complement Danny Granger’s lackluster performances as of late. Mike Dunleavy is an effective scorer when healthy. Dahntay Jones can provide energy, a defensive presence, and a bit of a scoring punch off the bench. And people forget how good T.J. Ford is. Jeff Foster is also an underrated center.

Prediction: Bulls win, 4-0

This is a series that can’t be placed on a storybook type of scenario. No team can play the part of villain because both teams are filled with so much heroes. They all play hard, and they’re all talented from the starting 5 to the 15^th player on the bench. However, as good as the Pacers have been all season, they’re not as good as the red-hot Bulls right now. Not to take anything away from the great season that the Pacers have had, but I do think that the first experience of being in the playoffs would prove to be too much for the young guys in the team to be able to perform at the level they’re playing now. This will be a competitive series, and games will be close, but ultimately, the Pacers won’t win in Chicago, and the Bulls have too much momentum on their side by Game 3, that by Game 4, the Pacers will have already been too demoralized to win.

(4) Orlando vs (5) Atlanta

Roster:

      ORLANDO         ATLANTA

PG Jameer Nelson                                           PG Kirk Hinrich
SG Jason Richardson                                      SG Joe Johnson
SF Hedo Turkgolu                                            SF Marvin Williams
PF Brandon Bass                                            PF Josh Smith
C Dwight Howard                                               C Al Horford

The Bench

F Ryan Anderson                                           G/F Jamaal Crawford
G Chris Duhon                                                  C Zaza Pachulia
F/C Earl Clark                                                G/F Damien Wilkins
F Malik Allen                                                    G Jeff Teague
G Gilbert Arenas                                               F Josh Powell
G JJ Reddick                                                    C Hilton Armstrong
G/F Quentin Richardson                                    C Jason Collins

Key Players: Dwight Howard, Al Horford

Watch out for: Jameer Nelson, Atlanta bigs

Season series: Atlanta won, 3-1

How the roster stacks up:

The early season trade that Orlando pulled off took the league by surprise. It drastically improved the Magic’s roster by getting back arguably their MVP during their Finals run in Hedo Turkgolu, traded a former all-star for another former all-star (Gilbert Arenas for Rashard Lewis), and got a borderline all-star in Jason Richardson. But things didn’t run as smoothly as expected, and they eventually fell to the 4^th spot in the East, after being a heavy favorite back in the preseason. They still have a wide arsenal at their command; Ryan Anderson is a stretch 4 in the Hedo mold without the playmaking ability; Jameer Nelson still has something to prove after being criticized for making a comeback in their finals run despite Rafer Alston and Jason Williams capably manning the point at that time; Brandon Bass is a workhorse that takes care of the boards ably; and JJ Reddick has improved his defense drastically to become a major part of the rotation. These facts, added to the fact that Dwight Howard is on their team, make the Magic that much scarier to face in the first round. What could be scarier is if Gilbert Arenas regains his playoff form circa 2006.

Atlanta has had its hot and cold streaks all season. The trade that blindsided starting point guard Mike Bibby and sent him to Washington in exchange for Kirk Hinrich didn’t seem like it would matter, but I think the defense that Kirk Hinrich brings to the team is a valuable asset for the Hawks. And no matter how clutch Joe Johnson is and that he’s the man for Atlanta, the Hawks can only go as far as Al Horford will take them. Josh Smith is an all-around player that will contribute greatly on both ends of the floor. Marvin Williams still has to prove his worth after being picked before Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Jamaal Crawford is a 6^th man playing starters’ minutes, and he’s been playing at a starter’s level. Jeff Teague has been handed the reins and will perform when called. Hilton Armstrong, Josh Powell, Zaza Pachulia, and Jason Collins have bodies wide enough to fill up the paint. Damien Wilkins is a solid bench player that knows his role in the rotation.

Prediction: Atlanta in 6

After careful deliberation and research, I have come to the conclusion that Atlanta is a more sound team than Orlando coming in to the playoffs. Despite the big names and all that talent in the Magic bench, they still have not figured out how to optimize their roster. For Atlanta, they just got better with Hinrich-for-Bibby swap. They’ve been a project for several years, and this might be the peak of their team in terms of talent. The team has been solid with few roster shakeups as compared to the Magic and their drastic changes over the course of the season. With the Magic anchored so much on Dwight Howard, they get to win games because he is so dominant down low. However, the Hawks have able bodies in Pachulia, Collins, Armstrong, and Powell who are not afraid to go toe-to-toe with the big fella and take him one on one. With everybody else not leaving to double on Dwight, it makes it that much difficult for him because he has to create his own shots, and not be able to kick out to shooters because no one’s open. I see a shocker in Game 1, with Atlanta taking it, and the rest of the games for the home team to take the wins.

(3) Boston vs (6) New York

Roster:

      BOSTON NEW YORK

PG Rajon Rondo                                               PG Chauncey Billups
SG Ray Allen                                                   SG Landry Fields
SF Paul Pierce                                                 SF Carmelo Anthony
PF Kevin Garnett                                              PF Amare Stoudemire
C Jermaine O’Neal                                              C Ronnie Turiaf

The Bench
 
F Jeff Green                                                        F Jared Jeffries
F/C Glen Davis                                                   G Roger Mason Jr
C Nenad Kristic                                                  G Toney Douglas
F Troy Murphy                                                    G Anthony Carter
G Carlos Arroyo                                                  F Derrick Brown
F Sasha Pavlovic                                                F Renaldo Balkman
G/F Von Wafer                                                   F Shelden Williams
C Shaquille O’Neal                                             G Shawne Williams
G Delonte West                                                 G Bill Walker

Key Players: Rajon Rondo, Amar’e Stoudemire

Watch out for: The vets vs superstar pairing

Season series: Boston won, 3-1

How the roster stacks up:

Boston is in stuck in the middle of rebuild and championship push. While their team was performing well, they decide to ship Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma to find a player that would fill up Paul Pierce’s spot in the team. The future of the Celtics looks like Rajon Rondo and Glen Davis being the anchors, and they needed a third young player preferably at the wing position to build the team around on in the future. They got that in Jeff Green, but in the process, lost the big body and physicality Perkins can give the team inside. Now, it seems that they need to get the O’Neals healthy again, because Troy Murphy and Nenad Kristic aren’t those strong, physical types. Carlos Arroyo seems like a solid pickup, especially with the talented, but fragile Delonte West being their backup point. Sasha Pavlovic offers defense and some perimeter shooting, but they won’t look to him so much to contribute. If Von Wafer finds his form when he was in Houston, he would be a very valuable asset to this team. Much has been said about the Big Three, and their performances would dictate what happens to this team in the postseason, but this run is the team’s transition of handing the team over to Rajon Rondo.

After striking out in the free agent bonanza of 2010, New York “settled” for Amar’e Stoudemire and his unsure knees. Then he breaks out and goes for monstrous performances night in and night out, and literally carry the team on his back. Then he even got his wish when management decided to turn the roster over and grab the disgruntled Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets. Chauncy Billups is a solid bonus in that trade, as well as the veteran locker room presence of Anthony Carter. These two should keep the young superstar tandem of the apostrophed ones’ egos at bay. Wilson Chandler was playing so well for the team that his loss was supposed to hurt the team. But then they got Jared Jeffries, New York’s Wilson Chandler before there ever was a Wilson Chandler. Landry Fields is a scrappy guard that can defend and give outside shooting when needed. Toney Douglas will also contribute greatly to their cause from the bench. Mike D’Antoni uses a short bench, so the other bench players not named Jeffries or Douglas would have to split the remaining minutes.

Prediction: New York in 6

I have been in this position 3 times last year, when I discounted the Celtics in every round they got into. But this year, I am a little bit more confident that they won’t get past the still excited New York Knicks, simply because of the loss of Kendrick Perkins. Other than physicality, he was somewhat the heart of the team. Yes, the Knicks are new to this postseason thing, but Carmelo and Amare are not. They can carry this team on their shoulders, as they have their previous teams. Despite the short bench, the starting unit is loaded with talents, so they wouldn’t need to rely too heavily on their bench. And with the core being young as they are, they would have enough energy to keep up with the Big 4 and veteran bench of Boston. On the other side of the spectrum, Boston’s age was a red flag for me last year, and it is still a red flag for me now. Their low post looks much too different with Nenad Kristic being a stretch 5 rather than a hulking force that was Perkins. Shaq’s health and Jermaine’s performance would greatly swing the series in favor of the Celts. But with health being a major issue at this point in time for Boston, the early to mid season run of the Celts may have been their last hurrah before full rebuild.

(2) Miami vs (7) Philadelphia

Roster:

   PHILADELPHIA MIAMI

PG Jrue Holiday                                                  PG Mike Bibby
SG Jodie Meeks                                                 SG Dwayne Wade
SF Andre Iguodala                                               SF LeBron James             
PF Elton Brand                                                   PF Chris Bosh
C Spencer Hawes                                                 C Zydrunas Ilgauskas

The Bench
 
G/F Evan Turner                                                   G Mario Chalmers
F Thaddeus Young                                               C Joel Anthony
F Andres Nocioni                                               G/F Mike Miller
G/F Antonio Daniels                                              F James Jones
F/C Mareese Speights                                           F Juwan Howard
G Lou Williams                                                     G Eddie House
C Tony Battie                                                       C Jamaal Magloire
G/F Jason Kapono                                                C Erik Dampier
F Darius Songaila                                                 F Udonis Haslem

Key Players: Andre Iguodala, LeBron James

Watch out for: The other Miami players

Season series: Miami won, 3-0

How the roster stacks up:

Philadelphia’s success this season has been attributed more to the coaching change rather than a drastic spike in player performances. That is not to take away anything from the talent in the roster. Elton Brand had a stretch of double-double performances in the season, and was a solid player for them in the post; not his Clipper-playoff run self, but at least better than his first year in Philly. Andre Iguodala was expected to be the face of the franchise, and though he wouldn’t post eye-popping numbers, he did put stats across the board that helped his team get much needed wins for a playoff push. Jrue Holiday has emerged as a solid point guard for their team. Evan Turner, the second pick in the draft, was solid, but not good enough to even challenge for the top rookie honors. He’s not franchise-player-of-the-future material, but he could be a very good Scottie Pippen, should Philly find a Micheal Jordan. Spencer Hawes has been solid as well. Mareese Speights still hasn’t been a consistent performer, but there’s potential there. Lou Williams was groomed to be the starting point guard before getting hurt and Holiday’s emergence, so there’s no lack of talent there. Thaddeus Young and Jodie Meeks will be the X-factors in this series for Philadelphia.

As expected when they first got together, Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh will be heavily-relied on. Then they got a bunch of veteran players who were willing to take less pay and a lesser role if only to win a championship or two. Mike Miller was supposed to be their 6^th man, but despite his rebounds and court presence, he hasn’t done what he was brought here to do: shoot the ball from the outside. That need was filled up by James Jones when they needed it, and the ever-dependable Eddie House. Newly-acquired Mike Bibby now needs to channel his Sacramento days for Miami to win it all. Mario Chalmers provides solid defense at the point, and he can drain the occasional 3 ball. Joel Anthony has been so underrated this season, but he’s been their Dwight in the middle. While Z and Dampier can provide the size and veteran savvy (more for Z than Damp; Damp provides false inside presence, really. He’s one of the big factors why Miami won the championship against his Dallas team in 2006) inside, it really is Joel Anthony’s inside presence that greatly improves the team’s defense. With Udonis Haslem set to return by the playoffs, Miami will have a deep frontcourt come playoff time.

Prediction: Miami wins 4-1

Speaking not just a fanboy, but also on a basketball perspective, Miami is going to have a cakewalk in this series. Not that Philadelphia isn’t dangerous enough, but rather, Miami would just be too much for them to handle. Brand hasn’t been known for his defense, and Hawes would be a foul-prone young center. Thaddeus Young and Speights could probably provide defense, but against a team loaded with talents, two good defenders wouldn’t be enough. The problem that Miami will have to deal with is who gets the ball at the end of games. This has been Dwayne Wade’s team since day one until LeBron came to town. Carrying his MVP trophies and media hype, the diva in “King” James had to be satisfied by handing him the ball at the most crucial times of the game. There’s a reason why the Cavs never won it all despite having all the talents they needed, and there’s a reason why LeBron is never mentioned in the same breath as Kobe, Melo, and even Brandon Roy as the game’s best closer. Wade has been too good of a teammate focused on winning that he’d rather give the ball up to LeBron at the end of games just so ‘Bron won’t whine about not having it. I think this problem will cost them at least one game in this series, but ultimately knock some sense into *choker* LeBron and finally let Wade take control of his team.