...The 2012 NBA Playoffs: The East...

The playoffs are finally less than a week away, and matchups are already set. Everyone will have they say on who’s going past who and I’m going to be one of those friends you have who’s going to throw my opinions out there.

So here goes, from the perspective of an odds and fantasy player for the 2011-2012 NBA season, my picks for the first round matchups of both conferences.

(1) Chicago Bulls vs (8) Philadelphia 76ers
(Chicago won regular season, 2-1)

Bulls:

They are one of the best teams in the NBA this season, winning with or without reigning league MVP Derrick Rose. They have an abundance of talent to make up for the loss of even their best player. They are a title favorite, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to give up an upset.

Sixers:

They had a good stretch during the start of the regular season, which propelled them to the upper half of the East standings. However, as the season progressed, their performance dipped as well, losing games they should be winning. Now they’re down to the 8^th spot in the East, and it’s probably their own fault. They still are a dangerous team and can pull off an upset against another team, probably, but not the Bulls.

What to watch out for: The “Bench Mob” vs The “Night Shift”

This is a matchup of 2 bench-heavy teams; the difference being Chicago having a solid starting 5 filled with all-stars Rose, Boozer, Hamilton and almost All-Stars Deng and Noah while the Sixers have Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala (has he ever been an All-Star?), which says a lot when comparing talent depth of both squads. With Rose not being in his best form, look for the Bulls to look to their bench to see how they can best compensate for the lost production from Rose. On the other side, look for Sixers to employ a heavy reliance on their bench more because of adjustments rather than keeping their starters fresh. The way that Sixers team has been playing all year, it doesn’t look like they consider their “starters” to be their best 5 on the floor.

Who to watch out for:

Taj Gibson is going to have a field day in this series. The Sixers don’t have much inside presence, and Gibson might be able to use that to his advantage by posting up or just crashing the boards.

Spencer Hawes is still not 100%, and may not be able to provide the numbers he gave his team at the start of the season, but Nikola Vucevic has played well filling up for him. Lou Williams might make his case to be starting point guard at some of the games as well, if he can pick up the defensive slack to complement his explosive offensive game.

Prediction: Chicago in 5

I think this has a sweep potential, but I won’t go that far. I think the Sixers will win at least one of their home games, catching the Bulls off-guard.

(2) Miami Heat vs (7) New York Knicks
(Miami won regular season, 3-0)

Heat:

They’re on their way to yet another successful season together, with LeBron playing for his 3^rd MVP plum, and the team gaining more chemistry as this is their second season together with the three stars. Norris Cole has been a nice surprise for the Heat; the rookie has provided a nice spark off the bench to give more stability at the point guard spot behind Mario Chalmers (like they still actually needed it). They’re still undersized at the center position, with Joel Anthony not given enough minutes because he’s an offensive liability and Udonis Haslem not really the big, bruising center they need.

Knicks:

Fans have forgiven the Knicks for a dismal close to last year’s campaign, thinking this year would be better with Anthony and Stoudemire having training camp together. Then they got Tyson Chandler, which got everyone buzzing as it suddenly transformed them to title contenders. Then the losses. Then Jeremy Lin explodes from nowhere. Then he goes down to injury. Talk about an up and down season for the Knicks. They made a nice push to get in to the playoffs despite their season struggles, and only time will tell if that’s enough to overcome the mighty Heat.

What to watch out for: LeBron vs Melo

As much of a Dwayne Wade fan I am, I think this series is a test for LeBron more than it is for Wade. Wade can close out games, no doubt. But the way that LeBron has been playing has earned him the right to call the Heat “his” team. To complete this process, LeBron needs to own his team by actually closing out. He can take over games to give them a chance to win, but at the end of the game, he doesn’t seem to want to take that last shot. If he can learn how to close out, it will only make the Heat more dangerous as teams would not know how to deny the last possession when they have to guard both LeBron and Wade.

Adversely, Melo has shown time and again that he can close games. However, he can’t seem to always will his team to win, as he tries to do a little too much at times. New York has offensive options that can help Melo out in cutting leads down; streaky JR Smith and sweet-shooting Steve Novak are there, Landry Fields has some shooting range as well, plus the inside presence of Amar’e and Tyson Chandler.

Whoever learns faster, LeBron closing or Melo sharing, could determine the fate of these two teams.

Who to watch out for:

Chris Bosh will be a major factor in this series, if he decides to play the bruising center that they need (a realization he had during the offseason), or he just plays his role effectively. Much of the attention will go to LeBron and Wade, so Bosh needs to prove why there are 3 stars in this team.

Baron Davis is a strong candidate for the most crucial player in the Knicks roster. They have ball hogs in Melo and Amar’e who want to create for themselves, but if there’s a point guard who will be able to take them to the right spots, it would make this team more efficient. Davis could be a ball hog himself, and he does have a strong offensive game, so enhancing his passing game would greatly benefit the Knicks. 

Prediction: Miami in 6

New York has the potential for an upset, especially if they wax hot. But I don’t think this is their year just yet. I’m looking at Miami to close out in the Garden, as stars usually bring their A-game there.

(3) Indiana Pacers vs (6) Orlando Magic
(Orlando won regular season, 3-1)

Pacers:

This team is an illustration of what a “streaky” team looks like. Their regular season win-loss record is filled with long win streaks, but had losing streaks as long as those win streaks were. Like all teams, they lost some players due to injuries, but didn’t have significant roster losses to explain their long losing streaks. However, this team still looks good, with Roy Hibbert blossoming into an All-Star, David West regaining his form, Danny Granger still leading the pack, Paul George just having an amazing season, and the backcourt rotation of Darren Collison and George Hill where you can’t go wrong whoever you choose. The late season acquisition of Leandro Barbosa is a brilliant move for the Pacers to infuse an offensive boost in their bench.

Magic:

I’d say this was a potential upset if Dwight Howard would still be able to play for this series. They do have the tools to compete, with Glen Davis filling in nicely for Howard offensively and on the boards, JJ Redick and Jason Richardson shooting nicely at the backcourt, Jameer Nelson picking his game up, and Ryan Anderson having a career year. However, without Dwight, they’re not the same team.

What to watch out for: Pacers Dominance

If there’s a playoff series that I think I can bet my arm on, it would be this matchup. The hustle and energy of the Magic can only get them so far; the Pacers have those hustle and energy guys too in Lou Amundson and Tyler Hansborough.

Who to watch out for:

George Hill is a player that got the coach rethinking his point guard rotation when his initial choice of starting point guard comes back from injury. It’s a good problem to have, really. With his length and defensive prowess, Hill may just showcase how good a player he is and get the nod for a starting spot despite the return of Darren Collison.

Jameer Nelson was selected as an All-Star reserve some years back, but injury prevented him from playing in that game. Without superstar Dwight Howard manning the middle and this team desperately looking for an identity, Nelson has to find his all-star form and lead this team to win.

Prediction: Pacers in 5

I would call sweep, but the Magic look like a gutsy bunch that could pull off at least one win.

(4) Boston Celtics vs (5) Atlanta Hawks 
(Boston won regular season, 2-1)

Celtics:

The aging big three look like they still have something left in the tank and at the same time, they have look to have a good young core with them. Despite the loss of Jeff Green for the season due to a heart surgery, they did have nice revelations in their rookies Avery Bradley and Greg Stiemsma. Bradley has given them a lift on both ends of the floor when called on, and Stiemsma has been a shot blocking machine. The return of Marquis Daniels will also help the cause of the Celtics. Brandon Bass has been pretty solid for them but I think it would be more beneficial for him to move to the bench in favor of a center to play alongside Garnett, so that the Big Ticket can play his natural PF position rather than play as a center or for Bass to play undersized.

Hawks:

What started out as a great season for the Hawks went back down to being another mediocre season when Al Horford went down. If Horford does indeed return for the Hawks in the postseason, it will only improve their chances of advancing to the second round. Zaza Pachulia, who has been playing well to fill in for Horford, is also set to return, which will make the team formidable. They already have a strong backcourt with the improved Jeff Teague, the steady Kirk Hinrich, and the sharpshooting Joe Johnson. Marvin Williams has played his role nicely as the wing man, and rookie Ivan Johnson has shown skills and energy on both ends of the floor.

What to watch out for: Tradition against Promise

The Celtics has a winning tradition and a group of guys who understand and live by this tradition. The Hawks have a promising future ahead of them, with current players not even on their prime and already playing well. This will be a close series to call, with the Hawks trying to get over the hump by beating a Celtics team whose core has already won a championship.

Who to watch out for:

For Boston, there won’t be any surprises. Marquis Daniels might provide a spark off the bench, Sasha Pavlovic might have his moments, but for the most part, this is going to be where Paul Pierce will take over. Rajon Rondo’s brilliance have people buzzing over how he may be taking the torch even before the Big 3’s time is over, but I think Paul Pierce will step up to show the basketball world that this is still his time, their time.

Atlanta’s Josh Smith will need to get his head in the game if they want to win. His contributions show up in the stat sheet, but for the most part, he plays erratically and wants the ball when he doesn’t need to have it in his hands. He needs to crash the boards on both ends, and don’t try too much on the offense, because they have good players who can get him the ball on places where he can score.

Prediction: Boston in 7

Not a dig on the talent level of Boston, but more on respecting the Hawks’s ability to match up well against the Celtics. This could be over in 5 games, with the Hawks stealing one in Boston and the Celtics winning the rest of the games, but I’m leaning more on the possibility that this will be a home and home series, with no team giving up their homecourt advantage.

...Playoffs 2011: The Second Round...

The playoffs mark the start of separating the boys from the men. But it's relatively easy to determine who the contenders are and who outdid themselves. The second round is where the battle really begins: my predictions now are more based on my faith in the teams rather than an assessment of their first round performance. Sure the first round matters. But, as I said, I will predict based more on emotions, as all the series could go either way.

*I was 2 series off in the first round, relying too much on Spurs' experience (though in analysis, had the Grizz actually capable of an upset), and hating the Celtics too much to hope that Knicks could have a chance against them.

The East

(1) Chicago Bulls vs (5) Atlanta Hawks

How they got here:

Chicago was somewhat pushed to the limit by a nothing-to-lose Indiana Pacers team. They played their hearts out and almost pulled an upset over the top-seeded Bulls. Derrick Rose anchored the Bulls series win with amazing performances in every game. Pacers limited the Chicago bigs, especially Carlos Boozer, who was expected to anchor the Bulls offense inside. As expected, Pacers gave them a fight which they ultimately won. The series did nothing more than solidify Rose's case for MVP.

The Hawks pulled off the expected upset of the slightly-favored Orlando Magic. It may be argued that they won on 2 bad shots, one that went in (Jamaal Crawford's far 3 pointer in the closing moments of Game 4), and one that didn't (Hedo Turkgolu's forced 3-pointer as time expired in Game 5, despite an open, unbelievably hot Gilbert Arenas waiting for the pass). But a win is a win, and they bested one of the favored teams in the East. 

Prediction: Bulls in 7

As mentioned in my first round prediction, I believe that the Hawks are strong as a team. But the playoffs is about match ups. They got through the Orlando series because they match up well against them, and since the offensive playbook of the Magic revolves around Dwight Howard, it was fairly easy for them to advance because they had nice bigs to go against him one on one, making it difficult for the Magic to create other scoring opportunities (the idea behind the Magic offense is to pull everything to a monster force down low, so that the opposing team would double on him, and he'll find the open shooter). Now this is a pretty interesting match up, really.

Against Chicago, the Hawks' biggest piece is Kirk Hinrich. He was the face of the Chicago franchise before Rose came in and was essentially handed the keys to the team. It's not that Captain Kirk wasn't needed in the Bulls lineup anymore; he was a necessary sacrifice to pull off a transition to the Rose era. He's still an able defender, and having played with Rose for a full year last year, would have a pretty good idea how to defend his successor.

The Bulls' supposed advantage down low is the agile big men they have in Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. However, that can easily be offset by moving Al Horford back to the Center position to match up with Noah, and move Josh Smith back to the 4 spot to go up against Boozer.

Despite these match ups, I peg Chicago to win because of two things: Luol Deng and clutch situations. With everybody busy drooling over every play Derrick Rose makes, Deng will do the dirty stuff like clearing the boards and other intangibles like off-ball defense and stuff. Joe Johnson will have to work for his shots because they might slide Deng over to him if another able defender in Keith Bogans is on the bench. As for clutch, Atlanta relies heavily on sheer dumb luck rather than skill. Most of their close games were won because of a lapse on the part of the opposing team or a bad shot that just miraculously fell through. Their best clutch player would be Joe Johnson, and he will be defended well. Chicago has Rose who will create on an isolation, and once he gets that first step on his first defender, it doesn't matter if there were 5 guys who goes up against him.

Prediction goes otherwise if: 

Derrick Rose's ankle injury gets worse. The Bullls go as far as D-Rose takes them, despite the abundance of talent in that lineup. 

*AFTER REVIEW FROM HAWKS.COM: After MRI on his ankle, it was revealed that Kirk Hinrich suffered a significant injury that could keep him out of the Chicago series. This is a huge blow that could drive Chicago to sweep or drop just one game. 

(2)Miami Heat vs (3) Boston Celtics

How they got here:

Miami had a fairly easy time against Philadelphia, but they did not leave that series unchallenged. Philly gave a good fight, but the three superstars responded well to the challenge. It was great for them to lose a game to the over-performing/well-coached Sixers, because it eliminates the illusion of invincibility in the team. They saw what happens when LeBron has the ball in close, end game situations, and when they put the ball in Wade's hands. What they do with what they know is up to them, but will probably dictate the series.

The defending East champs swept the Knicks, but that doesn't mean they didn't get a scare. The series came down to who had more big time players. Rondo played like it was the first half of the season again, and KG came up clutch in Game 2, which was a big blow to the morale of the Knicks. To some extent, they might have had the luck of the draw when Amar'e got injured, but that is no excuse. The C's is a good team that is a legit contender for the NBA Title. I daresay that whoever comes out of this series will win the East, no matter who comes out of the other East series. This is a true test of fire for both teams predicted to be on top of the East during the preseason.

Prediction: Miami in 7

This is a series that could go either way, no matter how Celtics fans insist that this is going to be easy for them. The biggest thing Miami has now that they never had against a favored opponent is home court advantage. This year, they start at home, coming off a win to close out the Philadelphia series. They still have momentum in the building, while the C's have rested a bit. I expect this series to be a home and home series, with no team stealing one on the road. They have genuine hate for each other, with trash thrown each other's ways directly, indirectly, in-game, and off-the court. 

The season series showed how Celtics can dominate the Miami Superfriends, but if it's any indication, Miami won the final encounter between the two teams. Have they figured out how to beat the Celtics? Or was it a lucky break? For certain, the Celtics couldn't have tanked that matchup, since they were both in the running for the top or second spot in the east then, and they would probably choose to lose against the Wizards or something rather than lose to Miami.

This series can't be dissected into match ups, because this is about pride for both teams more than anything else. Well, probably second to LeBron's diva-esque need to "take revenge" on the Celtics for beating him twice as a member of the Cavaliers in the past 3 years. Checking out the match ups though; the Center position is not too much of a factor since Perk was traded away. Essentially, it is the weak spot for the Heat, but Joel Anthony has gone unnoticed throughout the season, but is actually an underrated player. He plays the role that Perk once did for the C's when they had their championship run; with all the attention on the Big Three, Perk was essentially the anchor in the middle that enabled KG to extend his range. For Anthony, he has improved his offensive awareness and has greater confidence now, understanding that he has to contribute in order for his team to win. Early on in the season, he will pump fake or hesitate if he gets the ball inside. Now, he just goes up strong. For the C's, they are still hoping for Shaq to come back to play for them, but they have a plethora of big men to fill up space in the middle. Not as good as Perk, but enough to offset Anthony.

The PF spot is a no contest, with KG dominating that spot. Bosh was never known to be a tenacious defender, but he can most certainly try. They essentially play the same role on offense; stretch the D with range, and mix in some post up moves occasionally. On defense, though, KG could eat Bosh on both ends.

The 3 spot is a marquee match up against the Diva, er.. "King" and The Truth. It's always a joy to watch both players going at it, with Pierce's range and clutch shooting offsetting James' "talent" and athleticism.

The battle at the two spot features two players who can beat the other's team in their own ways; Allen can shoot the lights out on the other team while Wade can dissect the defense to create for himself.

At the point, Rondo's superior ability to orchestrate the Boston offense can be a huge problem for the Heat. They have Mario Chalmers who can try to stop him, but not much anyone else. Mike Bibby and Eddie House are essentially the same players; shooters, but defends like a high school girl. The difference would probably be the confidence that Chalmers carries over from their last win against Philadelphia; he was fed with the ball and was asked to shoot. With guys like LeBron and Wade egging you to shoot, and giving you that much confidence in a closeout game, how can you not trust yourself?

Prediction goes otherwise if: 

The bench players of Boston produce as they're expected to. Clearly, talent-wise, Boston is stacked while Miami is so-so because they spent their cash on bringing in "talents" for their team. They do have Mike Miller and possibly Udonis Haslem, but how much can that match up against a more confident Jeff Green and an energized Glen Davis? 

The West

(4)Oklahoma City Thunder vs (8)Memphis Grizzlies

How they got here: 

Oklahoma got the better of a well-coached team in Denver, crushing Denver's hopes of becoming the second team since the 03/04  (I forgot which) Detroit team that went all the way to the finals despite not having a legit star. But people expected much from OKC since pushing the Lakers to 7 games last season, and Kevin Durant nearly winning the MVP title last year. This year, Westbrook's improvement "dimmed" Durant's chance to challenge for the MVP title. They combined masterfully to conquer the scrappy Denver team, and despite the 4-1 series win, they didn't go through it unchallenged. 

As mentioned in my West prediction blog, the Grizz are a dangerous team more than capable of pulling off an upset over the Spurs. I did not think that they'd do it this year, but Manu Ginobili playing hurt throughout the series may have affected the play of the Spurs, not to mention the ever-efficient Tim Duncan getting dominated by Zach Randolph. Tony Allen has been huge for the Grizz, more for his intangibles than anything; championship experience, defense, energy, and pure love for the game and constant desire to improve. Marc Gasol has been big for the Grizz in the series, literally and figuratively. He has been the better Gasol in the postseason so far. 

Prediction: Oklahoma in 6

The Thunder was a Pau Gasol tip in away from preventing the Lakers from a 3-peat. This year, they have a dramatically improved team; Westbrook has been phenomenal, and Kendrick Perkins has changed their defensive make-up, allowing Serge I-blocka to slide down to the 4 to provide outstanding interior defense that they didn't have last year. As I mentioned, the post season is all about match ups, and this one just doesn't happen to favor the Grizz too much, especially considering their first round performance. 

The Grizz relied heavily on their leader, Zach Randolph throughout the season and against the Spurs. Marc Gasol performed excellent as well against the San Antonio bigs. The difference now is that they have Perkins and Ibaka manning the middle for the Thunder, rendering Gasol's post up moves, and pretty much every Grizzly drive to the hole, a low-percentage shot. On offense, Z-bo can probably stretch Ibaka out to the perimeter, but can't do the same for Perk. Z-bo and Gasol are going to be beaten up with Ibaka and Perk pounding their chests in the middle. 

The Grizz have two defensive specialists in their lineup as well; Tony Allen and Shane Battier to cover Kevin Durant and Russel Westbrook's offense, which is good news. The bad news for them; the Thunder still has James Harden, who will be left unguarded in their offense should Allen slide down to defend Westbrook. Mike Conley is an able playmaker, but won't do much for defense, either on Westbrook or on Harden.

I maintain that Z-bo's 3 pointer in game 3 in the closing minutes of the game was the difference in the San Antonio series. It generally destroyed the morale of the team in that game, and the negative psyche of being down 3-1 didn't help the young core of players I expected to help the Spurs in this series. Had Z-bo missed that shot, this series would've easily gone 2-2, with the Spurs closing out at home in 7. That said, the Thunder have two closers/clutch players in Westbrook and Durant, while the Grizz will be a bit predictable; turning to Z-bo in the clutch. 

Prediction goes otherwise if: 

Harden fails to show up for the Thunder. With Westbrook and Durant clearly being marked men, the Thunder will have to rely on other players to pick up the slack and give Memphis all that it could handle. 

(2)Los Angeles Lakers vs (3) Dallas Mavericks

How they got here: 

The defending champs met a bit of a roadblock in New Orleans, when the latter stunned them at home in game 1 of their series, which was expected to be swept by the Lakers after the Hornets' leading scorer, David West, went down at the end of the season. Chris Paul was sensational in the series, and it took a Kobe Bryant dunk to wake the boys in Purple and Gold. They Lakers eventually took care of business, but not without showing chinks in their armor.

The Mavericks have always been criticized for their defense, and as I recognized (won't so much as claim that I had the original idea, since I did read from several authors), their team make up changed when they picked up Tyson Chandler in the offseason. The series could have easily gone either way, but ultimately, the Mavs prevailed thanks to the ever-reliable Diggler. It's not the lack of talent that doomed the Blazers, nor is it the lack of will (see Brandon Roy's performance in game 4). I daresay that it is the dramatic improvement of the Mavericks, finally claiming to have a "D" in Dallas. 

Prediction: Lakers in 6

Despite the improved team, the Mavericks won't be able to overcome the Lakers. I honestly want to give the Mavs their home wins, but I think, with the swagger that the Lakers are carrying now, they would make a statement and close out on game 6 in Dallas. The Mavs are too hyped up and too good to be swept in this round. And yes, I would bet on that.

The Lakers have Matt Barnes back and Ron Artest flexing his muscles again, not to mention Steve Blake back to provide stability in the back court. This cast of supporting players can shut down a wide array of Dallas weapons, from the starting lineup to the bench. And we haven't talked about the huge Laker frontcourt in Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom.

The huge advantage Dallas had over the Blazers was clutch play. Brandon Roy wasn't the same player he was before he got injured. Now, Dirk's clutch play will be offset by arguably the best closer in the game; the Black Mamba, Kobe Bryant.

Shawn Marion has been pretty much the most consistent player in the Mavs lineup since the start of the season, but he's not the same Matrix as he was some years back in Phoenix. He can still defend and give the intangibles on the court, but with the stack of talent in LA, you can't just stop Kobe and expect the whole team to collapse. 

Pau Gasol has been criticized throughout their series with the Hornets, considering he didn't have to defend a David West. However, he didn't dominate the paint as he was expected to, prompting critics to burn Pau by saying the better Gasol is in Memphis right now. If Marion can successfully defend Kobe, Gasol's effectiveness will play a huge part in the Lakers' success. 

Prediction goes otherwise if:

Kobe Bryant's ankle injury is legit. It's one thing to miss Kobe for a few minutes, but it's another to miss him all throughout. Other than that, there aren't too many scenarios where Lakers will lose this round. It's not to underestimate the Mavs, I understand how good a team they are, but the Lakers are just too much for the Mavs to handle. The season-ending injury to Caron Butler may have doomed their chances for a deep playoff run even before the playoffs began. 

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I'm going for games going 6-7 games deep not to play safe, but more because these games are just too close to call (except the Bulls series if Hinrich is out of commission). These are the best of the NBA, and it would be interesting to see the winners of the Miami-Boston series and the Dallas-LA series, as they would come out better teams after being tested by such quality teams.